Summer Forecast Continued.

[Methuselah]

I'd have to echo the words of Paul Hudson, never has a LRF gone so spectacularly wrong so quickly!! A bummer considering GP's past record.

Tbh mate,the vast majority of LRFs do go wrong...Especially if one disregards the weekly retrofits that nearly always go with them...

[Airedalejoe]

Tbh mate,the vast majority of LRFs do go wrong...Especially if one disregards the weekly retrofits that nearly always go with them...

I know what you're saying but in previous GP longer range 'pattern' forecasts he's done remarkably well....however with this one it went t---s up immediately, and I sooooo wanted it to be right!!

[mushymanrob]

has there been any analysis as to why the summer lrf went wrong?

[Paul]

Not yet, but it's planned for later this month.

[Backtrack]

has there been any analysis as to why the summer lrf went wrong?

Yes, here's the reason why:

It's a forecast. Nothing was ever set in stone. A forecast can be right, and forecast can be wrong.

Unfortunately this time, it was wrong.

[Paul]

As mentioned before your post - you can still learn from where a forecast went wrong (and indeed right), so we will be looking more closely at it, and sharing that analysis with the community.

[ohno]

You cannot learn from long term forecasts because its impossible,there is countless vairables in the english climate. Only last weekend they predicted wednesday and thursday was going to be nice in my area inparticular, it poured it down yesterday and looking out the window am in for similar conditions today.. Sorry for going off on a tangent you can look at charts but all it takes is one day to go wrong in the chart and it throws everything off kilter..

[johnholmes]

You cannot learn from long term forecasts because its impossible,there is countless vairables in the english climate. Only last weekend they predicted wednesday and thursday was going to be nice in my area inparticular, it poured it down yesterday and looking out the window am in for similar conditions today.. Sorry for going off on a tangent you can look at charts but all it takes is one day to go wrong in the chart and it throws everything off kilter..

you are confusing short term changes, ie: period 24-168 hours, which are down to small wave disturbances difficult to predict in the broader major scale wave pattern around the globe. lrf work is not really involved in these short term effects. They RARELY infringe on the major teleconnections. I doubt it was such a short small wave disturbance that caused the lrf for summer to go wrong.

[Methuselah]

I know what you're saying but in previous GP longer range 'pattern' forecasts he's done remarkably well....however with this one it went t---s up immediately, and I sooooo wanted it to be right!!

TBH and to clarify: within my 'vast majority', I was, of course, including everyone. So, to be fair, the more expert versions (such as GP's) tend to get lumped together, along with all the 'others'...

[mushymanrob]

As mentioned before your post - you can still learn from where a forecast went wrong (and indeed right), so we will be looking more closely at it, and sharing that analysis with the community.

thatll be interesting

[Rollo]

Whether it be a summer or winter forecast there are plenty people who will stick their heads over the parapet and make predictions, as a winter forecast will range from very mild to very cold someone will be right, however it is being right constantly that is the key and I personally believe that no one has found this yet. But t'is fun to try.

Edited August 12, 2011 by Rollo

[Robbie Garrett]

Wondering if it could be solar and gulf stream driven of why the summer has performed like it has? also there was a fairly strong La Nina earlier in the year and i recon that could be the factor why we have had the atmospheric patterns like we have. Don't think we have been alone as i think that France and Spain have not had a too brilliantly hot summer either. Maybe the earths temperature is going on a diet and a big diet.

What I've noticed about this Summer, there is a lot of cloud cover - that has and hasn't helped our Summer, some little cloud - lots of sunshine, hot night - next day really muggy cloud = which lead to that 33.4*C or whatever it was, which kept the temperatures where they where.

A good summer, I believe is generally less moist - lots of dry heat, no cloud = the Summer 2003 heatwave. Our summers seem too moist to be summers, rather than what we had years and years ago.

I am a fan of Global Cooling and Climate Change, but not a fan of 'Man-made Global warming' - as science suggests that a a lot of dinosaurs pooped and created as much global warming as us humans, the last time earth had issues.

[Guest]

Wondering if it could be solar and gulf stream driven of why the summer has performed like it has? also there was a fairly strong La Nina earlier in the year and i recon that could be the factor why we have had the atmospheric patterns like we have. Don't think we have been alone as i think that France and Spain have not had a too brilliantly hot summer either. Maybe the earths temperature is going on a diet and a big diet.

From the time I have been in Languedoc this spring and summer has not been as hot as it normally is. At this time of year they often have what they call a "Canicule" - This is a period when there is no substantial cooling at night and as it progresses there is a gradual build up of heat with max's in the 38 to 40 C region. Currently the temps are getting up to around 30C + or - a degree or so which is not that different to a good summer in this country.

[Alex]

Baleric Isles have been poor this summer (relative to avg), some locals are saying it's been the worst summer they can ever remember with the end of July particularly poor with almost 5/7 days with rain in and lower than avg temps.

[Jon Somerset]

I remember a summer in the mid 1980's which was similair to this one. I can't remember the exact year but I can recall the August Bank Holiday brought the only decent weather for about three months. I was wondering if anyone could recall the exact year and the weather patterns that produced the seemingly interminable grey cool days?

[damianslaw]

Maybe 1987 could have similarities.

Yes it won't have been 1986 as august bank holiday was a shocker. It may have been 1985 which saw a very poor summer. This summer has been very similiar to 1987 coming on the back of a wonderful April much as happened in 1987 as well. Lets hope the rest of the year doesn't pan out like 1987 though with the storms in october and a very poor winter for snow and cold.

[ZONE 51]

http://www.weatheron...?LANG=en&ID=132 Something to keep watch on, interesting video, although only a couple of minutes but im sure the developing situation would be updated nearer the time. Edited August 15, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think that it is clear that no one or even 2 or 3 teles or other influences totally control the pattern. There are combinations that bring different results, sometimes one will drive the pattern and sometimes not. Look at NINO/NINA. Yes there is an overall global pattern but the HPs and LPs aren't always in the same place, the jet isn't always on the same track so the weather pattern will differ and sometimes sectacularly so. Something or more has overidden/effected the expected analogue pattern this summer.

I am looking forward to any analysis just purely on basis to see if GP is able to identify what caused it to be wrong. There was a lot to support his suggested pattern in his forecast, so no moaning from this camp.

BFTP

[Paul]

Our latest model based long range forecast (covering Autumn) is online

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

[Guest]

And just think, at this time, more or less, 100 years (1911) ago they were having heat waves with temps up to 98F in old money.

No Indian summer in the offing in the LRF and this summer is nearly over. Never mind had some good weather in France but that appeared cooler than average - we will be there for Oct though.

Will keep my fingers crossed for summer 2012.

[Milhouse]

I'd rate this August quite highly so far. Its had some very warm and humid days to start with, a few cooler and shower ones and now a nice run of dry and pleasantly warm days with temperatures in the low 20s. Today was supposed to be cloudy with occasional rain, but apart from a spell of light drizzle around midday its been warm with some good sunny spells developing leading to a lovely summers evening. Another warm weekend to come as well and theres no real sign of a notable deterioration like what we saw last year to end the month. Infact this August is very similar to 2009 which partially rescued what had been a poor summer up until then. The upcoming plume mirrors a similar one in 2009 almost to the exact day.

[Thundery wintry showers]

There seems to be a fair amount of regional variation this month (as there was in August 2009). Philip Eden had sunshine slightly above average over England and Wales as of 1-10 August, but here in Cleadon it's been a pretty dull first half of the month, and most nearby stations are reporting 50-70 hours of sunshine for the first half of the month, compared with a long-term average of 80-90 hours. In comparison August 2009 was the warmest August since 1997 here, and quite dry (about half of the month's rain fell in a big thunderstorm on the 31st) with close to average sunshine.

While I found the first half of July 2011 very enjoyable I think on the whole I'm going to end up rating this summer a little below those of 2009 and 2010, though still rather above those of 2007 and more especially 2008 which I regarded as the worst summer of the sequence.

[Weather-history]

Pretty unremarkable summer, just the number of cool nights that has been as any of note. Thundery wise, it has slipped into the disappointing category. Not heard any thunder for a number of weeks.

Edited August 18, 2011 by Mr_Data

[picog]

Overall, a good summer here. Very dry in July and so far, August. Nice temperatures, have been able to get out and do things without dripping in sweat, but warm enough to sit outside from time to time, especially in the evenings. As Mr Data says, the most notable thing has been the cold nights — last night we went down to 6.2C, mush cooler than predicted.

Hopefully, the clear evenings will continue so we can get to see the super-near Mars towards the end of the month.

Edited August 18, 2011 by picog

[Weather-history]

Hopefully, the clear evenings will continue so we can get to see the super-near Mars towards the end of the month.

Oh gawd, not that silly e-mail hoax again!!! Every year we get this. Mars is only coming back into view now and will not be super near. This happened in August 2003 and contrary to what that hoax says will not be as large as the full moon. If it was I would panic!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_hoax

Edited August 18, 2011 by Mr_Data