3rd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discusion And Reports

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'm still optimistic about the warm front moving in. Taking a look at the radar, satellite loops and current GFS forecast its evident between now and midnight something along that front between Cornwall and Southern Scotland has to prep up from somewhere. This close into the forecast wether its from topographic lift or forcing there's still plenty of potential. Even if the models don't show the band as convective in nature.

I can't see anything to get excited about? Looks like a damp squib to me....that's if any rain actually falls from it in our locale; otherwise it'll just be a squib.

[Carl46Wrexham]

I'm still optimistic about the warm front moving in. Taking a look at the radar, satellite loops and current GFS forecast its evident between now and midnight something along that front between Cornwall and Southern Scotland has to prep up from somewhere. This close into the forecast wether its from topographic lift or forcing there's still plenty of potential. Even if the models don't show the band as convective in nature.

If the airmass ahead of the warm front is unstable enough then I'd say there was at least a possibility of embedded thunderstorms ahead of the front.

[pinball wizard]

mega heavy rain now. I fear this is all we will see today

The skies are definitely beginning to bruise, radar showing rapid development and the GFS model indicated maximum CAPE and LI between 18.00 and 21.00, all ingredients are coming together nicely, i'm getting the camera ready!

[Flash Elvis]

I hereby bestow you then with the title of "Honorary Westerner". Hopefully you don't retain this dubious honour for long!

The skies are a total mess over my part of Essex....anybody from Chelmsford way might be getting a little show??

[Costa Del Fal]

Hold your horses! Just heard a clap of thunder in the distance and looking at the radar.. Finally a small cell has formed about 5 miles West of me and is moving this way :lol: Hallelujah!!!

Yes a torrential cell heading your way now. Barely anything left of showers to my West now. Im off for a bit now. The Garden needs water aka from our Hose because were not going to get any other water for the time being!

[Crimson_Sprite]

OMG, seriously, the storm are forming a half eaten donut around nottingham. east of me is getting F5s, north of me is getting cells by the minute, just south of me between Leceister and Notts has a huge ameoba storm, and I am in the middle. The line breaks right over Nottingham and Leicester. If they have not formed now, they will not form I dont think, its like a real severe barrier. NOTHING west at ALL. I just watered my plants, as my back garden is turning into

[Supercell]

Such a strange day. Had multiple showers go up and produce those heavy rain drops you associate with thunderstorms, but not quite having the enrgy to become anything more than a brief downpour.

Ooohh...finally had a rumble.

[Norfolk Sheep]

Quick dark outside and blimmin strong gusts of wind. But check the radar and there's nothing

Ooh, light drizzle *faints*

[Cheshire Freeze]

If the airmass ahead of the warm front is unstable enough then I'd say there was at least a possibility of embedded thunderstorms ahead of the front.

Approximate probability i'd say <10% There will be a window of moderate rainfall potential but other than that......the flow ahead of the front is already westerly, if it was a southerly flow then it may have been a different story.

[lewisosd]

The skies are definitely beginning to bruise, radar showing rapid development and the GFS model indicated maximum CAPE and LI between 18.00 and 21.00, all ingredients are coming together nicely, i'm getting the camera ready!

Yep noticed the development is happening quickly. Hopefully see you on the green a bit later!

[maxemoo]

First rumble of thunder!!!!!

Edited: And the wind has picked up.

Edited again: The radio has also become lively - and another rumble.

Please let this be the start of it :excl:

Edited August 3, 2011 by 1200max

[Crimson_Sprite]

Hold your horses! Just heard a clap of thunder in the distance and looking at the radar.. Finally a small cell has formed about 5 miles West of me and is moving this way :lol: Hallelujah!!!

here's to your small little cell!!!!! I hope it blows up into a supermassive cell!!!!!!!

[Mesoscale]

First rumble of thunder!!!!!

Edited: And the wind has picked up.

Yeah the clouds started building around here then headed your way. meh! im just gonna sit outside in this nice breeze and enjoy the the hazy sunshine. :/

[Serendipity]

Us Midlanders are very unlucky aren't we? Ah well, guess I'll have to water the plants again tonight!

[Harry]

Us Midlanders are very unlucky aren't we? Ah well, guess I'll have to water the plants again tonight!

You're not the only ones I can assure you!!

[andy_leics22]

here's to your small little cell!!!!! I hope it blows up into a supermassive cell!!!!!!!

Thanks my love Well that cell was extremely heavy, lasted about 10 minutes but the rain was torrential, around 90mm an hour intensity on the Net Weather radar.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Us Midlanders are very unlucky aren't we? Ah well, guess I'll have to water the plants again tonight!

I'm glad I don't have any plants to water otherwise I'd be in and out more times than Mr Heffner

[Supercell]

Us Midlanders are very unlucky aren't we? Ah well, guess I'll have to water the plants again tonight!

Been teased all day by showers and now we have some thunder from a cell that is to the north and east which is no good lol.

[Staffordshire]

You're not the only ones I can assure you!!

I'm preety sure you've had a storm!

[Harry]

I'm preety sure you've had a storm!

Define 'storm'...I've had 8 thunder days iirc, yet only one of them I would count as a proper thunderstorm day (27th June)

Other than that it's been isolated to half a dozen flashes and bangs - you forget I'm used to seeing big storms EVERY year from childhood, including at LEAST one proper night time thunderstorm event in a year (common to have at least half a dozen, either overhead or watching from a distance). Seeing what I have both this year and previous several, it's soul destroying

Edited August 3, 2011 by Harry

[Darren Bown]

Pretty gutted. And jealous still, forecasts got locations right today, though they seem more widespead in this area than was anticipated.

[lewisosd]

Just had a rumble overhead!

[Norfolk Sheep]

First rumble of thunder!!!!!

Edited: And the wind has picked up.

Edited again: The radio has also become lively - and another rumble.

Please let this be the start of it :excl:

same here It's suddenly got a wiggle on and heading straight here, thought it was going more NE but hey ho

[sunny scunny]

It's chucking it down again now.No thunder this time though.

[JamieUK]

So I looked at the CAPE chart. The highest CAPE around 1100j/kg is pretty much on me. This doesn't necessarily mean that I will get storms right? Here in Bucks, we have had storms initiating. But this was before the highest cape was forecast. All the storms seem to be firing in the East now.