Convective weather - 2nd-3rd November 2011

[essex coast matt]

rekcon there be some local flooding from that band coming up from the south,nearly 24mm today already from a weather site in oxted,surry,looks like most of it will stay to west of me, our turn during night maybe.

[Costa Del Fal]

Some VERY INTENSE Downpours look likely for the Midlands, CS England, E Wales, parts of SW England and SE England tonight. Thunderstorm possible and likely again tomorrow. If anything perhaps some of the most interesting Thundery potential this year... In November! Loving it.

[wimblettben]

Think the thundery activity has stayed just east of central London moving north across SE and E London. All quiet now after 3-4 flashes and rumbles, just plain rain.

I honestly do not think that today diserved a MODERATE RISK for storms.

More like a SLIGHT RISK maybe?

[D-J-V]

< that is all i have to say, ah well another time for London!

[Nick F]

Going by the lack of reports of any real convective weather it is a shock that all of these storm forecasts issued a MODERATE WARNING.

If this is all a moderate risk can bring here then thats it, I'm outta here!

'Salut'

Actually, I have just had a 110mph gust!

Nothings left.

There are reports of tornado damage in Redditich Worcestershire, so your comment might not be so justified yet, though the damage could be SLWs. The radar has shown plenty of bright echoes and lightning detectors a fair bit of lightning across England and Wales today too.

[A.J]

Going by the lack of reports of any real convective weather it is a shock that all of these storm forecasts issued a MODERATE WARNING.

If this is all a moderate risk can bring here then thats it, I'm outta here!

'Salut'

Good grief man! you said it yourself, a 'moderate risk' with 'risk' being the key word! All the atmospheric parameters were and still are in place to give forecasters good reason to issue convective forecasts to include a moderate risk of severe weather...Said forecasters know what they're talking about, and don't normally issue forecasts of severe weather risk just for fun....I know it's frustrating when your particular town/village doesn't get in on the action, join the club, but there's little point in moaning about a forecast in such a volatile & difficult to predict synoptic set up

[wimblettben]

Some VERY INTENSE Downpours look likely for the Midlands, CS England, E Wales, parts of SW England and SE England tonight. Thunderstorm possible and likely again tomorrow. If anything perhaps some of the most interesting Thundery potential this year... In November! Loving it.

Please! I don't wan't anymore excitements then for it to again just fall to pieces and make me even more miserable!

[Paul Sherman]

Still Hot and Humid in SE Essex :rofl: Did not want the rain anyway - Bah!

[Cheshire Freeze]

I honestly do not think that today diserved a MODERATE RISK for storms.

More like a SLIGHT RISK maybe?

No, because that's what risk is.....a percentage of chance. Today was moderate, not 100% certain to happen.

[wimblettben]

There are reports of tornado damage in Redditich Worcestershire, so your comment might not be so justified yet, though the damage could be SLWs. The radar has shown plenty of bright echoes and lightning detectors a fair bit of lightning across England and Wales today too.

Well the lightning must have been very scattered then.

Had nothing here apart from heavy showers.

[Nick F]

Good grief man! you said it yourself, a 'moderate risk' with 'risk' being the key word! All the atmospheric parameters were and still are in place to give forecasters good reason to issue convective forecasts to include a moderate risk of severe weather...Said forecasters know what they're talking about, and don't normally issue forecasts of severe weather risk just for fun....I know it's frustrating when your particular town/village doesn't get in on the action, join the club, but there's little point in moaning about a forecast in such a volatile & difficult to predict synoptic set up

Exactly!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Good grief man! you said it yourself, a 'moderate risk' with 'risk' being the key word! All the atmospheric parameters were and still are in place to give forecasters good reason to issue convective forecasts to include a moderate risk of severe weather...Said forecasters know what they're talking about, and don't normally issue forecasts of severe weather risk just for fun....I know it's frustrating when your particular town/village doesn't get in on the action, join the club, but there's little point in moaning about a forecast in such a volatile & difficult to predict synoptic set up

I get the feeling he doesn't understand the 'risk' element. Let's hope he never gets into gambling......he'd be broke within the hour!

Edited November 3, 2011 by CreweCold

[matt_in_dudley]

Had a couple of sharp showers here today, no thunder (not that i'm gonna notice because of traffic noise) lol. Very "messy" cloud formations. Such fun lol

[kold weather]

Its ok Paul we are getting real wet in SW Essex now, though the core of the band is moving just to my west by a mile or two, so I'm keepnig a clsoe eye on my west in case there is some lightning.

There's the thunder....

[nanu]

another flash.. thunder shook the house this time

[Costa Del Fal]

So because there isnt a Thunderstorm right over peoples houses it does not warrant a Moderate Risk. Silly comments by a couple in here. Redditch, Worcestershire possibly had a Tornado this afternoon accompanied by our Heavy Thunderstorm here.

[dallas]

Leaving it to the experts, but looks like a hook echo on the east flank on the rear of this system?

[Paul Sherman]

Leaving it to the experts, but looks like a hook echo on the east flank on the rear of this system?

Radar looks very suspect North West of Bournemouth, anyone down there seeing anything

[wimblettben]

I get the feeling he doesn't understand the 'risk' element.

I understand what a risk means.

What I don't get is that there have been times when there were virtually no warnings at all, in fact not even a SLIGHT RISK. And yet we had really heavy rain and close frequent cloud to ground and therefore dangerous lightning. That day deserved a MODERATE RISK.

[Noctilucid]

Evening all...

Very heavy thundery downpours across the London Borough of Havering within the last hour, roads were getting over a foot deep in water in places I would estimate. Made for some quite interesting driving conditions combined with torrential rain and awful visibility. I'd definitely say these conditions warranted a weather risk warning.

Can also confirm I saw at least two flashes of lightning while in Romford, and we've just had another distant growl of thunder as I type this with heavy rain continuing although not on the torrential scale of earlier. Saw some very turbulent cloud structures to the East for a time earlier as well, no doubt associated with downdrafts out of the storm system into the clear air to the East.

EDIT: Another fairly close bolt of lightning as I submit this too.

17:01 ...and another bolt within a mile.

Edited November 3, 2011 by Noctilucid

[Harry]

I honestly do not think that today diserved a MODERATE RISK for storms. More like a SLIGHT RISK maybe?

The clue is in what you just said....moderate RISK! That should not be solely translated as there is a moderate risk of a thunderstorm occurring (i.e it is likely or very likely). It means that where storms do occur (IF they do) the ingredients are there for them to turn moderately severe; large hail, strong wind gusts, tornadoes, potentially frequent CG lightning or a combination of those.

It's like this....imagine you have a keg containing 100g of gun powder. The next contains 1kg, the next 10kg and the next 100kg. There is a small risk (say 10%) that a spark may occur. Do you give the same degree of warning for each keg or amend the warning to suit to the potential outcome? The 100g keg may cause surprise, where as the 100kg keg could be devastating!

The conditions today (and which still are above our heads) are for a keg to go up somewhere between the 1kg to 10kg. Just because no storms eventually develop does not mean the warning wasn't warranted.

[camiscool]

Makes me laugh all this moaning when the south east are getting their first storms of the year!

[Harry]

another flash.. thunder shook the house this time

Naff all here.....grrrrrr!!!

[Eabie]

Netweather has Coventry down for no precipitation tonight or tomorrow morning, but BBC Weather says possible torrential downpours in the early morning hours, and heavy rain into tomorrow morning. Not sure what to think, but I hope we get some heavy rain. We really do need the rain.

[A.J]

Radar looks very suspect North West of Bournemouth, anyone down there seeing anything

Am I looking at the right thing Paul, a hook echo on the SE flank of that cell?....If so, it's quite pronounced and has lasted for about 20 mins so far