Convective weather - 2nd-3rd November 2011

[wimblettben]

The clue is in what you just said....moderate RISK! That should not be solely translated as there is a moderate risk of a thunderstorm occurring (i.e it is likely or very likely). It means that where storms do occur (IF they do) the ingredients are there for them to turn moderately severe; large hail, strong wind gusts, tornadoes, potentially frequent CG lightning or a combination of those.

It's like this....imagine you have a keg containing 100g of gun powder. The next contains 1kg, the next 10kg and the next 100kg. There is a small risk (say 10%) that a spark may occur. Do you give the same degree of warning for each keg or amend the warning to suit to the potential outcome? The 100g keg may cause surprise, where as the 100kg keg could be devastating!

The conditions today (and which still are above our heads) are for a keg to go up somewhere between the 1kg to 10kg. Just because no storms eventually develop does not mean the warning wasn't warranted.

In other words then, you either get a storm, or you don't get a storm.

[weatherobsuk]

Redditch funnel cloud reported and flooding, tornado in Worcester, flooding in Brighton. The situation how it stands currently resulting from this afternoons storms.

[wimblettben]

Naff all here.....grrrrrr!!!

See guys, another person who hasn't had anything!

Proof right here.

[MP-R]

Haven't had any thunderstorms today, in fact it's been dry since 2pm and became sunny. Nice to see some hefty downpours which led to 14mm in the guage but nothing exceptional.

Fingers crossed once more tonight and tomorrow. Perhaps the chances will be better then?

[nanu]

Makes me laugh all this moaning when the south east are getting their first storms of the year!

what do u mean first.. ive had quite a few here this year

[cj114]

We have had five flashes of lightening and thunder, yet nothing on the net-weather radar!!!

I was in Leeds last week when they also had a storm. Mind you, my Son-in-law thought the neighbours were bringing in their bins!! lol.

[Mike Storm]

Have had a few nice flashes and Bangs here

[Paul Sherman]

Am I looking at the right thing Paul, a hook echo on the SE flank of that cell?....If so, it's quite pronounced and has lasted for about 20 mins so far

Yes, Cell is dying off now but had a pronounced hook for about 20-30 minutes as it came ashore West of Bournemouth.

Looked bloody tasty to me, the line through hastings looks more like the tail end of a squall line trying to form and push North North East

[camiscool]

Well i mean kent

[johnholmes]

I honestly do not think that today diserved a MODERATE RISK for storms.

More like a SLIGHT RISK maybe?

you sound a highly knowledgeable poster-perhaps you could explain why you think it only rated a slight risk, and is that just for your street or are you talking about the area quoted in the warnings?

[Costa Del Fal]

Reports that Rain/Hail hit 230mm/hr just to my East and South this afternoon!

[Jane Louise]

I understand what a risk means.

What I don't get is that there have been times when there were virtually no warnings at all, in fact not even a SLIGHT RISK. And yet we had really heavy rain and close frequent cloud to ground and therefore dangerous lightning. That day deserved a MODERATE RISK.

How about you pop over to the No storms club and vent your anger there!! That's why it's there.

[Mapantz]

Am I looking at the right thing Paul, a hook echo on the SE flank of that cell?....If so, it's quite pronounced and has lasted for about 20 mins so far

That cell passed right over me. Just heavy rain .. slight inflow, but nothing remotely tornadic about it.

[Cheshire Freeze]

See guys, another person who hasn't had anything!

Proof right here.

A handful of people on a weather forum out of 63 million? Also no-one as far as I know said it would be widespread?

[Harry]

See guys, another person who hasn't had anything!

Proof right here.

That's just unfortunate for me....people just a few miles from me have and at present only isolated occurrences.

In other words then, you either get a storm, or you don't get a storm.

Correct - however, severe risk zones on storm forecast maps should not be translated to 'likelihood of a storm'.

There could be a very slim chance of a storm across Area A, say for example due to a robust 'cap' being in place. IF the cap breaks, the storm could be supercellular and destructive. This would warrant, in terms of severity, a Moderate/High risk.

In Area B however, there is a VERY HIGH risk of a storm, but due to atmospheric conditions they are very unlikely to be severe. Therefore, a 'Slight' risk wouldn't even be warranted.

Area A however, despite being under a 'Mod/High' risk, may not see anything whatsoever, while Area B may be affected by several thunderstorms.

[wimblettben]

Haven't had any thunderstorms today, in fact it's been dry since 2pm and became sunny. Nice to see some hefty downpours which led to 14mm in the guage but nothing exceptional.

Fingers crossed once more tonight and tomorrow. Perhaps the chances will be better then?

I do hope so MPR.

[A.J]

That cell passed right over me. Just heavy rain .. slight inflow, but nothing remotely tornadic about it.

Cheers for the report, shame it didn't look like producing in the flesh, so to speak, certainly looked interesting on radar as Paul posted

[Coast]

See guys, another person who hasn't had anything!

Proof right here.

We'll try and organise the weather a little differently for you next time...... :winky:

[kold weather]

Strong pluse working up nerar Brentwood right now, looks like its only just blown up in the last 10-20 minutes.

[camiscool]

is it just me or is that huge blob of rain over france coming our way?

[wimblettben]

Clear here now, and with a light breeze nothing of note to report!

Can see some distant wisps of Cirrus and Cumulus.

[Isolated Frost]

Very active topic! Brill to read through

As a northeasterner- I'm hopeful for at least some torrential rain, but in a rPm airmass with synoptics like this, the atmosphere in it's current shape- maybe the odd bit of thunder?

[Cheshire Freeze]

This thread should have a banner across the top of it saying 'Due to the moronic nature of some of the posts, Netweather advises that we are not responsible for any damage to PC screens, read at your own RISK'

Whether that be a SLIGHT, MODERATE or SEVERE risk, you decide

Edited November 3, 2011 by CreweCold

[Noctilucid]

Strong pluse working up nerar Brentwood right now, looks like its only just blown up in the last 10-20 minutes.

Quite a bit of distant thunder coming from that direction.

I think some people need to be reminded that weather forecasts are not written personally for them or the air directly above their house.

Edited November 3, 2011 by Noctilucid

[dave reid]

Cheers for the report, shame it didn't look like producing in the flesh, so to speak, certainly looked interesting on radar as Paul posted

Down in Bmouth and was some fairly strong looking convection, enough to get me excited anyway.

Looks like there is some fairly strong cells crossing the channel now and seem to be heading towards Bmouth. Prob hit just as I head to work in 1/2 hr, on my pushbike along the coast road

Edited November 3, 2011 by dave reid