29th November - 6th December 2011 Atlantic Storms

[wimblettben]

I have checked the Met Offices wind map for Sunday for the southwest and all I can see are 30mph to 40mph+ gusts so no different to what we will be getting tonight really which is just a normal wind. There looks to be the same sort of speeds for the southeast as well.

Edited November 30, 2011 by wimblettben

[Liam J]

Getting stormy now with gusts of 60-65mph along with heavy rainfall.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Getting stormy now with gusts of 60-65mph along with heavy rainfall.

When are these winds ment to peak?

[Jane Louise]

Tonight and tomorrows forecast from UKASF and Estofex . Please click on links to see maps:

Areas Affected:

SLGT: N Isles, NW Scotland, S + W Ireland, SW Wales, SW England

Synopsis:

Upper trough becomes a cut-off low over N Isles early in the period, followed by a significant upper trough moving slowly eastwards from the Atlantic later. Two 'bouts' of significant convection exist.

Discussion:

Cold mid-levels (typically -35C at 500mb) atop relatively warm SSTs will steepen lapse rates during the first few hours of the forecast period as an upper trough migrates northeastwards over Northern Scotland and the Northern Isles, becoming a cut-off low. Underneath said trough, significant convection will develop with ELTs potentially as low as -40C, capable of producing lightning and small hail. An overlap of >30kts LLS and >40kts DLS may promote the chance of some organised convection and perhaps a tornado/waterspout. Convective gusts >60kts are possible locally.

As the upper trough/low moves gradually away towards the Norwegian Sea from daybreak onwards, attention then turn to the approaching sharp upper trough to the W of Ireland. During the midday and afternoon hours, as cold mid-levels overspread the area and steepen lapse rates, noteworthy convection will allow sharp showers with local thunder and lightning to develop, with ELTs down to -30C. It is worth noting, activity may be late starting. Such showers are then forecast to move eastwards across southern Ireland towards western Wales and SW England during the late afternoon and evening hours, and hence the reason for the SLGT risk here

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/143

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 01 Dec 2011 06:00 to Fri 02 Dec 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 30 Nov 2011 11:20

Forecaster: GATZEN

Denmark, north-western Germany, Benelux, northern France, southern UK

As the mid-level trough starts to move south-eastward to the Iberian Peninsula, the intense trough axis will slow down over the British Isles during the period. Strong mid-level jet streaks are expected to spread north-eastwards ahead of the trough axis, leading to strong lift and vertical wind shear. Latest models indicate that this will be associated with frontal waves that travel across the area. Although plenty of low-level moisture will be advected northward ahead of the cold front, stable lapse rates will likely limit the potential of deep moist convection. Some storms may be possible at Thursday morning, but overall threat seems to be marginal.

http://www.estofex.org/

[I Cumbria Marra I]

47-75mph Aberdaron lol

[Liam J]

Extremely windy now, gusts well over 60mph with a max of 67.8mph in the last 15 mins, the peak likely between now and midnight as the cold front moves through.

Edited November 30, 2011 by Liam J

[weatherobsuk]

Current synoptics

[Liam J]

72.4mph just now ands it's getting far to difficult and risky to be standing outside with my anemometer for much longer, not nice at all.

[Zenarcher]

Wind has completely dropped here from 40mph to 66mph now down to just 22mph.

The GFS 18z its showing the bad winds to still move over Northern Scotland over night and into Thursday morning so 80-90mph is possible in those areas.

As for Saturday the low has been downgraded but at the same time shifting it slightly further South this has upgraded the winds but again only the far North of Scotland will see the worst of it.

And for the Sunday low its now showing nothing worth noting on the 18z tonight.

Edited November 30, 2011 by weathermaster

[Jane Louise]

72.4mph just now ands it's getting far to difficult and risky to be standing outside with my anemometer for much longer, not nice at all.

Wow, :shok:batten down yer hatches Liam. Sounds a tad windy there!

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Pretty windy here also, my broken anemometer, (bearings loose, under-reports true speed), reading 62.7 mph top gust so far, so it must actually be higher than that. Didn't expect it to be quite so windy tonight.

[Liam J]

Wow, :shok:batten down yer hatches Liam. Sounds a tad windy there!

Part of the fence has blown off and there's some bits of masonry/cement on the ground can only imagine it's from the roof, not going outside again that's for sure! It's hard to take a breath and the wind was distorting my face

Likely to be even stronger as the cold front moves through and the wind veers westerly sharply then I expect it will ease rapidly.

Edited November 30, 2011 by Liam J

[I Cumbria Marra I]

WOW that wind is really strong now, i actually think these are the strongest winds iv had this year

[Liam J]

WOW that wind is really strong now, i actually think these are the strongest winds iv had this year

The cold front should be moving in over the next hour so expect some very powerful winds in the process! 72 mph the max so far, mean speeds 40-47mph.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Bloody hell! that was the strongest gust of the night! the roar from it was amazing. This weather is BRILLIANT

Edited November 30, 2011 by I Cumbria Marra I

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Just heard something smash

PPN in irish sea is getting heavier and there is a squal line

[weatherobsuk]

A squall-line southwest of Birmingham currently in relation to the occluded front. This part of the world could face two squall-lines tonight with this one crossing the city shortly, and the Irish Sea squall (cold-front) anytime around 3am.

[Liam J]

Not long now until the squall line associated with the cold front makes landfall, winds still very strong and gusty.

What a way to start December!! Severe gales gusting 70mph with a squall line approaching.... Hello Winter 2011

Edited November 30, 2011 by Liam J

[Cookie]

Very strong winds picking up here on the coast, max gust so far 56.8mph. Sustained winds of 70mph? You should be seeing gusts up to and possibly over 100mph

check out this site http://www.eoropaidh.co.uk/

[Liam J]

check out this site http://www.eoropaidh.co.uk/

That doesn't look right, wind gusts lower than the Sustained wind speed? Or am I reading it wrong?

The winds have died down over the Western Isles and it's still showing storm force winds?

Edited December 1, 2011 by Liam J

[Cookie]

That doesn't look right, wind gusts lower than the Sustained wind speed? Or am I reading it wrong?

The winds have died down over the Western Isles and it's still showing storm force winds?

its starting to come down, is a very exposed headland where that station is!

[Liam J]

its starting to come down, is a very exposed headland where that station is!

It seems very high given that the other stations around the Western Isles are reading nothing like that and Stornoway has winds of 15mph, the isobars have opened up considerably from earlier and wouldn't support such high wind speeds at this time. Strange, never mind who am I to say it's wrong, just seems odd.

Edited December 1, 2011 by Liam J

[DubWeatherAddict]

Enjoy the system folks!... Had it over here in Dublin, got one flash of lightning from it,... Power out... One gust of 60mph

WAS NICE!

[ZONE 51]

GFS - 18z(Sunday/Monday)

Jet+surface pressure

Although the storm is not developed here i would not put it passed it developing a strong feature of rainfall and gales, going from what appeared to be a hurricane force storm to a low pressure with a channel gale is a bit strange, why cant the output keep to something inbetween, instead of massive extremes, what it is, is that as the upper air data is recorded through the periods and this changes all the time, so the models relate to this and output what is possible, so it was expecting a storm, now the interactions of the temperatures/Jet.. are being modeled as not right for the storm, and the timing to. its all complex stuff.

but what i can add to this is that i dont expect it not to re-develop, its happened before, it could be that as we get nearer the time(friday/saturday) then more data is collected of possible interactions, then this could re-develop the storm.

Well its good its been downgraded because it would be a big impact.

-

Edit.. getting very gusty right now, and raining.

Edited December 1, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Cookie]

It seems very high given that the other stations around the Western Isles are reading nothing like that and Stornoway has winds of 15mph, the isobars have opened up considerably from earlier and wouldn't support such high wind speeds at this time. Strange, never mind who am I to say it's wrong, just seems odd.

will keep any eye on, He may be having issues with it!