Scotland - Cold & Windy Spell Discussion 3

[Cheggers]

interesting indeed red alert then for the central belt ?

I wouldn't bet on it, we are North of the border, thus should be used to it.....!!

[glasgow-guy]

Interesting that a cold weather alert issued for parts of England but nothing here.

http://www.metoffice...ldweatheralert/

I saw that all will be revealed however i suspect colder air will be dragged down with the low affecting north western parts of England

bringing snow no big deal to us in Scotland but probably worthy of a one off BBC special

Edited December 7, 2011 by glasgow-guy

[Sunny Leith]

The story over the next 2 days will obviously be the wind and its aftermath. A few deaths or at least some serious injuries are (unfortunately) normal in severe situations like these.

I don't think any snow will be the story, certainly not in the major cities. The problem there will be avoiding getting blown into the path of buses and not getting totalled by roof-slates. But the Highlands, rural areas ... indeed anywhere in Scotland with decent height could catch something snow-wise. Where it does then even a inch or two can end up drifting into every lee and gulley and filling it up quite spectacularly, certainly it wouldn't be deep crisp and even anywhere, not with the level of wind-violence that will accompany it.

[todd1970]

RED WARNING now issued for wind..but they forgot to colour in the map ?? lol

Edit: its ok..they updated it.

Edited December 7, 2011 by todd1970

[kold weather]

Well the models are still keen on bringing in a very intense low pressure system and I'm not the least bit surprised that the Met office have issued a red alert warning for this system, it is needed...

[Mark H]

I saw that all will be revealed however i suspect colder air will be dragged down with the low affecting north western parts of England

bringing snow no big deal to us in Scotland but probably worthy of a one off BBC special

I take it back i see red warnings now issued,lol.

[glasgow-guy]

RED WARNING now issued for wind..but they forgot to colour in the map ?? lol

Edit: its ok..they updated it.

it is now

Edited December 7, 2011 by glasgow-guy

[Mesosphere]

safe to say im a tad worried now

[Hairy Celt]

and 130mph gusts for the hills. i wonder what wind speeds the turbines can stand.

[Sunny Leith]

Agree with Steve Murr's comment on the model thread re: likely impact on sea temperatures. All this ongoing wind turbulence is really going to churn up the warm upper surface of the surrounding seas.

That relatively warm layer (really only a few metres deep) is going to get well mixed up with the colder water below. If we're still hoping for a decent easterly outbreak in January (or indeed deep cold air from anywhere), then thats a useful helper.

Currently I suspect any easterly would be a bit of a slush-fest after the long warm autumn maintained North Sea temperatures above the seasonal norm. Anything that pegs the North Sea surface temps back to something approaching normal before January is to be welcomed...

[EmWrites]

safe to say im a tad worried now

Aye I think it might be a bit windy up here. We are around Cranshaws about 8 miles north of Duns. Time to put the chickens away I think. x Keep safe and have a good day. x

[glasgow-guy]

gusts of 75-80mph expected in the central belt

met office now removed the snow risk

Edited December 7, 2011 by glasgow-guy

[Mark H]

gusts of 75-80mph expected in the central belt

met office now removed the snow risk

Updating perhaps?

[snowy owl]

So we are in the red zone! Yikes. Looking really nasty. Have been out moving everything that may get blown away!. Have let the chickens out for a wee run around today as i daren't contemplate what tmrw will be like - suffice to say they will be in their run/coop area.

I see the snow risk has been removed - what are peoples thoughts for tmrws temps? I thought that initialy the cold would be blowing in and possibly cold enough for snow to lower levels (at least at times?)

[Craig Cameron]

wow stunning hail and snow storm in glasgow right now

everything nice and white

[snowy owl]

wow stunning hail and snow storm in glasgow right now

everything nice and white

Not a good time tonip out for lunch then! nice to watch from indoors

[glasgow-guy]

wow stunning hail and snow storm in glasgow right now

everything nice and white

holy crap its dark as night over Glasgow heavy rain here right now

getting dark here also

Edited December 7, 2011 by glasgow-guy

[William Houston]

heavy hail shower covering on ground,sunny now

[glasgow-guy]

some snow warnings back on the met-office

[Sunny Leith]

I think 90% of the imminent and significant risk from that feature is purely from the wind. Any rain, sleet or snow certainly compounds it, but probably only high-level and exposed routes could be at risk from the white stuff. Unfortunately for many of you boys and girls in the higher and exposed parts that are north and south of the M-8 (and either side of Harthill in the middle) yes that could well include you :unsure: But no-one will be needing snowboots in the middle of the population centres. Just hard-hats !

Edited December 7, 2011 by by-tor

[todd1970]

Would expect a Level 3 Estofex warning over us later on , or is that only usually for severe thunderstorm setups ?

[glasgow-guy]

Would expect a Level 3 Estofex warning over us later on , or is that only usually for severe thunderstorm setups ?

only for lightning storms as far as I know ?

[todd1970]

only for lightning storms as far as I know ?

OK...cheers wasnt sure if it was for 'any' type of severe weather or just thunderstorms.

[November13]

Met office mucking about with snow warning. Central 4am to 9am yellow Friday!Then nowt for Strathclyde! Probably change by this afternoon a lot of guesswork going on I suspect.

[glasgow-guy]

OK...cheers wasnt sure if it was for 'any' type of severe weather or just thunderstorms.

oops seems i was wrong also

What does ESTOFEX forecast?

ESTOFEX issues "Storm Forecasts" on a daily basis. These bulletins, accompanied by a map, address the threats posed by severe convective storms in Europe. The focus of the forecasts is the threat for hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes that these storms pose. Since May 1st 2009, the threat of excessive convective rainfall is included. Additionally, areas where lightning is expected are highlighted.

To communicate the magnitude of the threat of hail, severe wind gusts, tornadoes, and excessive precipitation, ESTOFEX uses threat levels. Threat levels are issued based on the estimated probability of severe weather resulting from convective storms. A storm is considered severe or extremely severe when it is accompanied by one or several phenomena that meet the criteria listed below.

severe convective weather phenomena:

hail with a diameter of at least 2.0 cm

tornado

wind gusts with a speed of at least 25 m/s (92 km/h or about 48.6 knots)

excessive rainfall of at least 60 mm (explained elsewhere in this FAQ)

extremely severe convective weather phenomena:

hail with a diameter of at least 5.0 cm

wind gusts with a speed of at least 33 m/s (about 119 km/h or 65 knots), or

a tornado of class F2 or stronger

Edited December 7, 2011 by glasgow-guy