The Far North Of England Regional Discussion

[NickR]

3.9c now, sat images indicate broken cloud and then clear skies tonight, should dip towards 1-2c in cities/towns and around freezing in more rural areas. Warm sector should only give us 1-2c uppers max tomorrow night before more cool Pm air so it seems nothing distinctly mild until Thursday/Fri morning and even then it's rather brief with the low crashing through and introducing some more cooler air from the nw.

Or not, acc to ECM 12Z and GFS 18Z

[Isolated Frost]

ECM 12z- 108 has the low in a similar strong position and the trend has been for the low moving across us bringing heavy rain and severe winds.

GFS 18z- when I said crashing through, I did not necessarily mean through N Eng

2.1c and falling here.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The GFS 18Z would still give us potentially damaging gusts, on a par with those at the back end of last week, but not up to the level of the 8th January 2005.

[Isolated Frost]

Oh sorry Nick, it was the GFS 12z I was viewing.

1.8c.

[damianslaw]

Whilst the outlook remains very dynamic and therefore interesting in terms of 'weather activity' - I can't help but wish it was this time last year or the year before - I remember the evenings of the second sundays in both dec 09 and 10 and relishing the prospects of an arctic plunge by the following thursday - uncanny how we saw the patterns take almost carbon copy developments. To expect similiar events for the third year in a row was always going to be a tall order..

Mind the weekend coming could bring a northerly blast of sorts and so we may for the third year running see another seasonal third december weekend with a wintry flavour - but it is going to be a far cry from the snowfests of the past two years. I remain optimistic though that january and february will deliver the cold and snowy goods and show december who is the real boss...

[Isolated Frost]

Clear skies and broken cloud for much of the morning and afternoon for the region, but a band of cloud moves in from the west shortly after midday for Cumbria and moves into the NE by rush hour. Maximum temperature 7c in cities, 5-6c in rural areas.

Turning rather warm with mild uppers to begin the evening, cloudy and wet for the most part before turning cooler again from the west by the morning, potentially much clearer by dawn aswell. Minimum temperature 4c in cities, 2-3c in rural areas.

[Isolated Frost]

Fell below 0c and we had a hard frost by 2am, but added wind and some patchy cloud moved the temperature up towards 3c and above by 6am. Was 2.9c at 630 when I woke up but the wind has died down and the cloud has left, temperatures have fell to 1.3c in accordance with that. Sunrise at 823 so another 30 mins at least of natural cooling and perhaps a bit more post-dawn up until 845-ish... frosty morning.

[Alex95]

I notice the Met Office have a weather warning out for snow tomorrow in the NE and Cumbria - 10cm above 100m and slushy deposits at low levels. No idea where they are seeing this!

[Snowstorm1]

I notice the Met Office have a weather warning out for snow tomorrow in the NE and Cumbria - 10cm above 100m and slushy deposits at low levels. No idea where they are seeing this!

Same! I was like eh? :')

[Isolated Frost]

I notice the Met Office have a weather warning out for snow tomorrow in the NE and Cumbria - 10cm above 100m and slushy deposits at low levels. No idea where they are seeing this!

Agreed, NMM says -5c uppers for much of N England but under low pressure -5c uppers should deliver to lower levels (50-100m)... with a WSW wind I expect heavy snow above 150-200m, wintry showers/sleet between 100-150m, sometimes above, sometimes below. The fells should get some snow, and some showers should pass the pennines due to the strong wind.

[Alex95]

If the Meto warning is to be believed there'll be 10cm of snow on top of some of the apartment blocks in Newcastle as the land is generally 30-80m asl across the area, and I'm sure they are over 20m tall, reaching the 100m asl the Meto warning quotes.

However, I'm going to call this as a non-event. Kinda reminds me of that non-event between Christmas and New Year last year where the Metoffice were calling 10-15cm fresh snow despite the GFS showing a ~10% risk, but we ended up with heavy rain which washed the thick snow from the 23rd away.

Edited December 12, 2011 by alza

[Snowstorm1]

If the Meto warning is to be believed there'll be 10cm of snow on top of some of the apartment blocks in Newcastle as the land is generally 30-80m asl across the area, and I'm sure they are over 20m tall, reaching the 100m asl the Meto warning quotes.

LOL Hoping for a covering tomorrow slushy or not shud be fun day and radar watching too!

[Mick ne durham]

I thought it might have been busy in here tonight.

[JP1972]

Wind picking up and rain now falling.

Tell you what, if we can't have snow then for me this is the next best weather type.

Very wintry out there without any of the white stuff

[Snowstorm1]

Wait till tomorrow mate when things will get kicked off wintry style

[damianslaw]

If the Meto warning is to be believed there'll be 10cm of snow on top of some of the apartment blocks in Newcastle as the land is generally 30-80m asl across the area, and I'm sure they are over 20m tall, reaching the 100m asl the Meto warning quotes.

However, I'm going to call this as a non-event. Kinda reminds me of that non-event between Christmas and New Year last year where the Metoffice were calling 10-15cm fresh snow despite the GFS showing a ~10% risk, but we ended up with heavy rain which washed the thick snow from the 23rd away.

I wouldn't be too dismissive - the met don't put out warnings at such short notice if they aren't foreseeing a potentially developing situation. One thing which will make a massive difference is evaporative cooling - in heavy showers the temps drop markedly and with favourable dewpoints don't be surprised to see at least a dusting of snow down to 50m - more likely in Cumbria than the NE as precipitation will be much more frequent and heavier in the west.

Last Monday showed the power of evaporative cooling - snow did settle temporarily down to 50m and there was a decent cover above 100m. Certainly the fells will see another pasting - indeed December 2011 already has far outweighed dec 2010 in terms of amount of snowfall above 400m - the higher fells are plastered in the stuff and will be even more so by the end of the week, cornices and drifting galore - a winter snow lovers walkers paradise.

I am surprised at the lack of posts in here this evening - chances of low level snow are very high tomorrow.

If the Meto warning is to be believed there'll be 10cm of snow on top of some of the apartment blocks in Newcastle as the land is generally 30-80m asl across the area, and I'm sure they are over 20m tall, reaching the 100m asl the Meto warning quotes.

However, I'm going to call this as a non-event. Kinda reminds me of that non-event between Christmas and New Year last year where the Metoffice were calling 10-15cm fresh snow despite the GFS showing a ~10% risk, but we ended up with heavy rain which washed the thick snow from the 23rd away.

[Isolated Frost]

3.9c still here; rainy, sometimes very heavy.

Dorset/Wiltshire have some explosive rainfall.

[JP1972]

Wait till tomorrow mate when things will get kicked off wintry style

I'm not convinced we here in the NE will see much in the way of snow tomorrow mate but will be happy to be proved wrong.

This time last year ... aaahhh!

[Bridgehill Blizzard]

Sleet in the mix in Consett and very strong winds

[Mick ne durham]

I am surprised at the lack of posts in here this evening - chances of low level snow are very high tomorrow.

Same here. I rely on the more experienced posters to keep me informed whilst I'm still learning.

[Snowstorm1]

I'm not convinced we here in the NE will see much in the way of snow tomorrow mate but will be happy to be proved wrong.

This time last year ... aaahhh!

Im sure we will see plenty falling but sticking or not is a hope and see!

[lizmartin1981]

I have to say regarding snow, although I would love it to lie, just seeing some flakes would do it for me even if, as they probably will, melt as soon as they hit the ground!

[I Cumbria Marra I]

I wouldn't be too dismissive - the met don't put out warnings at such short notice if they aren't foreseeing a potentially developing situation. One thing which will make a massive difference is evaporative cooling - in heavy showers the temps drop markedly and with favourable dewpoints don't be surprised to see at least a dusting of snow down to 50m - more likely in Cumbria than the NE as precipitation will be much more frequent and heavier in the west.

Last Monday showed the power of evaporative cooling - snow did settle temporarily down to 50m and there was a decent cover above 100m. Certainly the fells will see another pasting - indeed December 2011 already has far outweighed dec 2010 in terms of amount of snowfall above 400m - the higher fells are plastered in the stuff and will be even more so by the end of the week, cornices and drifting galore - a winter snow lovers walkers paradise.

I am surprised at the lack of posts in here this evening - chances of low level snow are very high tomorrow.

All i got was hail marra and it just melted straight away

[damianslaw]

All i got was hail marra and it just melted straight away

Yes I'm afraid being on/close to the coast means you didn't benefit from the evaporative cooling as the showers moved across the western fells. Last Monday was a surprise..

We also saw snow early saturday morning with a light cover. We haven't done too bad so far this month...

[Mick ne durham]

heavy Sleety mix at Washington.