The Far North Of England Regional Discussion

[Isolated Frost]

2.6c out there- amazing radar showing the power of the pennines all night- no shower activity since midnight here.

[Teesdale]

Thin covering here.Much milder night than forecast.Models medium term looking more settled and dry. Good chance of another drier than average month. The weather word of next year could be drought.

[Snowstorm1]

No Snow here as I expected.

[Aaron]

Awful 18Z GFS - takes storm and the snow risk further south - looks like a day watching a lot of people from mids south getting pasted while we get nowt.

This depends on how cold it is down south.. I doubt it will be cold enough to allow for any significant snowfall down south away from high ground.

[Cloud 10]

No snow here this morning,although there has been a ground frost which has left the place lethal!

[Teesdale]

Thin covering, with light snow shrs.

Temp 1.3C,

Highest wind speed of year recorded last night 59mph, anemometer not best positioned so probably higher in reality.

[tynevalleywinter]

Not looking good for any snow this side of xmas I'd say.

[NickR]

Not looking good for any snow this side of xmas I'd say.

Nope. Meanwhile Friday looks like seeing heavy snow in Mids, E Anglia and poss SE... this would be more than frustrating.

I don't mind areas to the south getting a load, but not when we've had none!!

Edited December 14, 2011 by NickR

[tynevalleywinter]

Nope. Meanwhile Friday looks like seeing heavy snow in Mids, E Anglia and poss SE... this would be more than frustrating.

I don't mind areas to the south getting a load, but not when we've had none!!

Look north forcasting snow here for Saturday! Although they cant be trusted longer than 5 minutes in advance!

Edited December 14, 2011 by tynevalleywinter

[Isolated Frost]

Nope. Meanwhile Friday looks like seeing heavy snow in Mids, E Anglia and poss SE... this would be more than frustrating.

I don't mind areas to the south getting a load, but not when we've had none!!

Just had a little spy on the 06z GFS and would like to say, where on earth did you get heavy snow?! Uppers don't fall below -4c anywhere in the UK- and where the precip is, uppers are between 1c and -3c. Even under 975-980mb, that would still be rain below 150-200m.

Nothing to report here today; 4.1c currently after a max of 4.2c. Pretty much white/grey cloud all day.

[NickR]

Just had a little spy on the 06z GFS and would like to say, where on earth did you get heavy snow?! Uppers don't fall below -4c anywhere in the UK- and where the precip is, uppers are between 1c and -3c. Even under 975-980mb, that would still be rain below 150-200m.

Nothing to report here today; 4.1c currently after a max of 4.2c. Pretty much white/grey cloud all day.

All the forecasts are going for it (METO, BBC), adn GFS does predict snow (see the meteociel versions).

[Andy_]

GFS 12Z showing NE-rly winds on Friday from the Low Pressure System... uppers look far too high for snow at my height though

[Isolated Frost]

All the forecasts are going for it (METO, BBC), adn GFS does predict snow (see the meteociel versions).

My forgiveness please! I have seemed to underestimate the low pressure influence and see that widespread snow is possible for the midlands, wales and east anglia. A small low to the w of scotland could affect us on Fri morning, but -3c uppers would mean rain for most, sleet/snow above 200m generally.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think it looks like being one of those classic "marginal" events with snow in heavy bursts and sleet/rain in light bursts. I can see potential for some places getting a major dumping from this, but I also think that the majority will see slushy deposits.

I remember that last year I was dead against a marginal frontal event that was supposed to arise from a deep low at the beginning of December, because many of us had thick snow cover and such an event, while giving many places a big sleet/snowstorm, would probably have turned the snow to slush and subsequently ice in many places without adding to the overall cover, due to marginality. There was a similar issue with a big low that the GFS showed out in the North Sea for 23/24 December at one stage. At present most places don't have a snow cover so I would be up for such an event, but that system looks like tracking too far south to be relevant to this region so we'll have to rely upon snow showers from the subsequent northerlies.

[Snowstorm1]

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Rain or snow moving in overnight and early Friday, accompanied by strong winds making it feel very cold and blowing any snow around. Thereafter, brighter with wintry showers, cold winds.

Updated: 1549 on Wed 14 Dec 2011

That from the metoffice so we could get hit now too ?

[Teesdale]

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Rain or snow moving in overnight and early Friday, accompanied by strong winds making it feel very cold and blowing any snow around. Thereafter, brighter with wintry showers, cold winds.

Updated: 1549 on Wed 14 Dec 2011

That from the metoffice so we could get hit now too ?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/

There's still around 30% of 12z GFS runs want to take low in the Midlands.

Edited December 14, 2011 by Teesdale

[Snowstorm1]

Ill take the less likely option please...

EDIT Ive just thought Im going to Cardiff on Saturday (Boro Away Game) if I might see snow there? :o

Edited December 14, 2011 by Snowstorm1

[Geordiesnow]

I noticed on a Look North broadcast earlier that the UKMO model wants to bring a front down from the North from midnight onwards-Saturday morning bringing some PPN, although looking at the uppers I doubt it be cold enough for snow.

Bit frustrating this upcoming Northerly, not only the flow is wrong for most us in the region its also quite moderated thanks to that large Russian high which has not moved for ages sending warmer Southerlies on our side of the Arctic and that large low pressure system over the Norwegian sea/Scandi which means this upcoming Northerly does not have the 10-hpa anywhere near us when you look at the set up, it probably normally would.

[Snowstorm1]

Look North showed snow showers for Saturday very widespread

EDIT Will happen as Im off to Cardiff that day but would be nice to see it on the morning going in it around 6:30am ish and come back to it at 11pm ish!

Edited December 14, 2011 by Snowstorm1

[Andy_]

Pretty annoying how the Southerners have stole our wind storm, in exchange for a poncey rain to (poor) snow event

GEM tries to bring us some consoled snow with marginal uppers

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think if the low tracks further north, those of us on low ground to the east of the Pennines would see rain due to the winds off the comparitively warm North Sea, although higher parts of the region could get a dumping of snow.

[JP1972]

As I predicted last night, no snow for us.

For a newbie I seem to be doing better than most people on here

Why anyone thought any snow (of note) would fall east of the pennines beats me to be honest!!!

I still say our only hope for the foreseeable is if the winds at the weekend tilt east of north.

Otherwise forget it

[Geordiesnow]

To be fair Andy, even when the low was further North, the models never predicted any snowfall for us lot in the North but what we have missed out on is surely an very rare event where there was at one point the risk of having a 100mph gust in these parts but its not meant to be sadly.

Still, the models give us a brief proper stright Northerly for 6 or so hours and in my experience there will be showers in the North Sea aslong the front is far enough South so we might see one or two (wintry)showers before we get blue skies and sunshine as winds back more NNW'ly-NW'ly.

[NickR]

As I predicted last night, no snow for us.

For a newbie I seem to be doing better than most people on here

Why anyone thought any snow (of note) would fall east of the pennines beats me to be honest!!!

I still say our only hope for the foreseeable is if the winds at the weekend tilt east of north.

Otherwise forget it

I don't think many of us were expecting anything TBH. Not that I want to burst your little bubble of smugness, of course. ;)

[JP1972]

I don't think many of us were expecting anything TBH. Not that I want to burst your little bubble of smugness, of course. ;)

Seemed to be rather a lot of posts from people lamp post watching, radar watching and expecting snow from what I read!

And this with winds coming from a direction which never favour snow for east of the pennines in my experience. Not saying it couldn't happen but the chances have to be extremely slim let's be honest.

From where I work I can see the Cheviots and I can report that there was a lot more snow on them this time last week than there was today.