The Far North Of England Regional Discussion

[Andy_]

We might get some on Friday... but nowhere near as much as Mids/EA/SE, who all look set to get a decent amount of frontal snow... while we get scraps.

Hopefully the storm will track further north to include us, its baffling how just a couple days ago it was modelled to hit us smack on with +80mph gusts...

[Alex95]

On Friday we have a slight east flow due to that lp in southern england- we may see some wintry showers from the north sea of that... but the main stuff looks like going into Yorkshire and the midlands atm.

We might get some on Friday... but nowhere near as much as Mids/EA/SE, who all look set to get a decent amount of frontal snow... while we get scraps.

I doubt we'll see much on Friday as the wind won't be blowing onshore for long enough to generate significant convection. We shall see though!

[Isolated Frost]

We might get some on Friday... but nowhere near as much as Mids/EA/SE, who all look set to get a decent amount of frontal snow... while we get scraps.

Scraps will do mate, and only a slight tint north of that lp, and we're bang on centre

Anyway with another low moving into s england on sat/sun we could easily see more cold east winds/north east winds... and the cold north wind is always close by. We have an intriguing scenario which could potentially give

a: strong winds

b: heavy rain

c: heavy snow

Scraps will do mate, and only a slight tint north of that lp, and we're bang on centre

Anyway with another low moving into s england on sat/sun we could easily see more cold east winds/north east winds... and the cold north wind is always close by. We have an intriguing scenario which could potentially give

a: strong winds

b: heavy rain

c: heavy snow

12z a big upgrade in deepness of cold in the NE and proximity to that low compared to the 6z.

[Andy_]

I doubt we'll see much on Friday as the wind won't be blowing onshore for long enough to generate significant convection. We shall see though!

I'm sure the North Sea will reward us for our patience! And it was very lively the other week if you remember

[Isolated Frost]

I doubt we'll see much on Friday as the wind won't be blowing onshore for long enough to generate significant convection. We shall see though!

Indeed- but it's a very complex situ and the NMM/Fax is the way forward. We may catch the northern tint of that precip associated with the low though

[Alex95]

12z throws up a weird ridge for Sunday, so no snow on this run!

[Bridgehill Blizzard]

just had heavy hail/snow and drifting in very gusty winds. A lot of precipitation heading for the North East!?

[Mick ne durham]

just had heavy hail/snow and drifting in very gusty winds. A lot of precipitation heading for the North East!?

It's looking like that,according to the Radar. Interesting night ahead up in them thar hills.

[Snowstorm1]

Unsure myself on what to think about tonight?

[NickR]

Radar seems to be dying for the NE - not sure what people are seeing that I'm not. The system to the north won't come further south, surely! I can't see much being formed over the Irish Sea or over the Pennines. What am I missing?

[Alex95]

Radar seems to be dying for the NE - not sure what people are seeing that I'm not. The system to the north won't come further south, surely! I can't see much being formed over the Irish Sea or over the Pennines. What am I missing?

That system is expected to throw some prolonged sleet or snow across our region tonight.

[Snowstorm1]

That system is expected to throw some prolonged sleet or snow across our region tonight.

So you think where going to get sleet/snow tonight?

[Isolated Frost]

That system is expected to throw some prolonged sleet or snow across our region tonight.

I'm not sure how though? Wouldn't it need a nw/wnw to take it here? Looks like it will march on through n northumberland and go into the north sea.

[NickR]

I'm not sure how though? Wouldn't it need a nw/wnw to take it here? Looks like it will march on through n northumberland and go into the north sea.

That's how I see it. Unless the Irish Sea produces something or we get some sort of orographic take-off over the Pennines, I can't see this happening.

[Alex95]

I'm not sure how though? Wouldn't it need a nw/wnw to take it here? Looks like it will march on through n northumberland and go into the north sea.

Its not going to move here per se, but it will spread its influence. Look at how it has spread into the Scottish Borders during this afternoon on the radar!

[Snowstorm1]

Temp flunctuating wildly up and down here! Tonight god knows what to expect im just hoping for some snow with a nice little covering

[Thundery wintry showers]

What do you think about tonight TWS mate- any more shower activity?

A temporary lull I think, before showers pep up again overnight. It looks marginal though, probably snow on high ground but just a wintry mix on low ground.

We might get some on Friday... but nowhere near as much as Mids/EA/SE, who all look set to get a decent amount of frontal snow... while we get scraps.

It's true that some could be in for a dumping, but I don't think those of us on low ground are really missing out on much. Such marginal frontal snow events are usually hit and miss affairs, with many places seeing a lot of wet snow which struggles to produce more than a slushy coating, and others seeing just rain. Another issue is that in many of the areas that do get accumulating snow in the heavier bursts, subsequent sleet/rain (as the system clears away) turns the snow to slush, and it then refreezes leaving solid ice. Often the snow belt tends to be confined to a narrow area on the northern/western flank of the system.

If the system tracks further north and leaves us in the frontal zone, it would be great news for snow lovers on high ground, with snow likely away from North Sea areas, but the winds off the North Sea would ensure rain on low ground to the east of the Pennines.

The GFS 12Z run indeed fails to bring us any snow showers from those NW'lys, but I think the evolution into nothingness after the weekend looks somewhat implausible.

[Alex95]

The GFS 12Z run indeed fails to bring us any snow showers from those NW'lys, but I think the evolution into nothingness after the weekend looks somewhat implausible.

I agree there - I don't think the models have a grasp on Friday's low yet, and that almost renders the rest of the run useless! I do expect milder weather next week, but I'm going to have a break from the models for a few days.

[Snowstorm1]

Well basically tonight I guess is a look out your window situation!

[NickR]

A temporary lull I think, before showers pep up again overnight. It looks marginal though, probably snow on high ground but just a wintry mix on low ground.

It's true that some could be in for a dumping, but I don't think those of us on low ground are really missing out on much. Such marginal frontal snow events are usually hit and miss affairs, with many places seeing a lot of wet snow which struggles to produce more than a slushy coating, and others seeing just rain. Another issue is that in many of the areas that do get accumulating snow in the heavier bursts, subsequent sleet/rain (as the system clears away) turns the snow to slush, and it then refreezes leaving solid ice. Often the snow belt tends to be confined to a narrow area on the northern/western flank of the system.

If the system tracks further north and leaves us in the frontal zone, it would be great news for snow lovers on high ground, with snow likely away from North Sea areas, but the winds off the North Sea would ensure rain on low ground to the east of the Pennines.

The GFS 12Z run indeed fails to bring us any snow showers from those NW'lys, but I think the evolution into nothingness after the weekend looks somewhat implausible.

Cheers TWS. Just hoping for some snow for the kids I guess... hoping that a trip up Weardale will be worth it at the weekend though.

[Teesdale]

Mucher milder day than I was expecting.

Currently 2.4C, not convinced its going to snow here never mind for those further East.

After the countryfile forecast on Sunday I was hoping for a dynamic, wet and wintry week.

Looks very little in the way of rainfall the next week, according to GFS.

[tynevalleywinter]

2.3 here now with a savage wind. Going off the METO amber warning the boundary goes over my house so who knows what to expect. Seen 4 BBC forecasts today. 1 Local 3 national. Local and 2nd national had us all in for snow tomorrow afternoon but oddly 1st and 3rd national didnt show it at all. Plus 1st nationl had us down for 11 degrees for today!

Edited December 13, 2011 by tynevalleywinter

[Thundery wintry showers]

Any snow will be reserved for after midnight at Cleadon IMO, with the temperature currently holding up at 5.4C, only 0.2C off the afternoon maximum. I'll be surprised if I even see sleet mixed with rain here this evening, though Newcastle Airport is still registering a dew point of -2C.

[Cloud 10]

Its easy to see where the MET are expecting the snow to come from,although the band is getting shredded by 60-70 mph winds at the moment.

Lamp-post watch still in effect though.

[Snowstorm1]

Yes its weird here its 4.8c with Dewpoint at -3.2c