3 Counties And East Anglia Regional Discussion Thread

[Summer of 76]

Great to see everyone back for the winter time,hard to believe that nearly a year to the day there is the prospect of white stuff falling out of the sky.

Off topic when everyone enters this thread does it take them straight to the last post or do they have to press the button at the top 'Go to first unread post'. It seems to happen on every thread for me (using firefox) and only started when the forum upgraded.

Any way back to the weather 2.8c outside with a good windchill.

Chris

[WheresTheSnow]

Will the next set of models be out tommorow then ?

[Ben_Cambs]

Will the next set of models be out tommorow then ?

Well the GFS 18z and NAE 18z are at loggerheads.. NAE looks very good though the GFS takes the low much further south than its previous run, reducing the snow risk as there isn't much in the way of precipitation.

This is going down to the wire IMO (maybe not even resolved until this time tomorrow?!)

The 0z runs tomorrow morning shall be interesting to say the least!

Edited December 14, 2011 by Ben_Cambs

[Snowangel-MK]

Yellow Alert of Ice for East of England

Yellow Alert of Ice for East of England : Bedford, Cambridgeshire, Central Bedfordshire, Essex, Hertfordshire, Luton, Norfolk, Peterborough, Southend-on-Sea, Suffolk & Thurrock

valid from 1500 Sat 17 Dec to 1000 Sun 18 Dec

I've been out all day today so just having a quick catch up - nice to see we have some potential for white stuff of some sort in this region even if it's just ice/frost !

[weatherwise]

The 18z NAE doesn't look very good. Les snowy for our region (not that the 12z was snowy outside 3 counties) http://www.weatheron...P=0&INFO=0&WMO=

It will change again later, and then back etc.

Edited December 14, 2011 by weatherwise

[Snowangel-MK]

Met Office seem to be going for a more southern track

http://www.metoffice...y-and-unsettled

Edited December 14, 2011 by MKsnowangel

[Helvellyn]

Hello all.

Once again, like we've seen for the past several years it will be very much a now-cast event.

I have no doubt that there will be unexpected bands of rain/sleet/snow associated with this low.

[weatherwise]

Yep its a nowcasting event, not pure good honest snow but a wintry mix affair where some could do well (Chilterns?). The 0z NAE extends the snow risk a bit http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2011/12/15/basis00/ukuk/prty/11121612_2_1500.gif

Now we wait for the 6z to change it again :smilz38:

[Snowangel-MK]

ALL ABOARD!

There still seems to be a 60 mile margin of error regarding the track of the low so it looks like we could be "nowcasting" radar watching and of course lamp post watching !

http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/16165125

[weatherwise]

06z NAE out and that 60 mile variance 'MKsnowangel' mentions is highlighted by the fact that no snow is forecast in our region now (may be far SW Bucks) http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=30&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&LOOP=0&INFO=0&WMO=

In fact just a few mms of rain seems the most we can hope for. Still time for it to change, but the low is further south.

[Heisenberg]

NNM models are showing snow for us. Check out Liams post on the atlantic thread...looks ok for our area, but that is just one model....

Edited December 15, 2011 by lloydyd

[weatherwise]

NNM models are showing snow for us. Check out Liams post on the atlantic thread...looks ok for our area, but that is just one model....

If you've got a bit of height in Borehamwood, you certainly have a chance. The latest models out (particularly NAE) seem to indicate most of the precipitation is to our south now. NAE says couple mms (would be 2cms if all of it was snow and settled - unlikely) and GFS only slightly more (3-5mm). Runs before this were indicating 10+mm of precip which I think increased our chance of the rain turning to snow and sticking.

[Heisenberg]

If you've got a bit of height in Borehamwood, you certainly have a chance. The latest models out (particularly NAE) seem to indicate most of the precipitation is to our south now. NAE says couple mms (would be 2cms if all of it was snow and settled - unlikely) and GFS only slightly more (3-5mm). Runs before this were indicating 10+mm of precip which I think increased our chance of the rain turning to snow and sticking.

I agree, I dont think this is going to be an event. More of a passing shower. Any Snow we do get is likely to be too wet to stick. Not too bothered (would have been nice) but its still early days and with the strat showing possible signs of warming up who knows.....

[pinball wizard]

It's been said above already but to reiterate; currently most of the more reliable models are suggesting the low to track further south than first thought. Current projections show only limited precipitation for our area and as it is likely to be showery and light it will more than likely fall as cold rain or sleet - HOWEVER, models can and often do get things wrong and only a 50 mile or so adjustment north would see more heavier and persistent precipitation over our area which would more than likely fall as snow away from eastern coasts.

All you can do is open the curtains in the morning and keep an eye on the radar.

[PurpleButterfly]

I very much like the amber warning looking like it could be getting closer to my location :smilz38:

It would be nice to wake up to snow tomorrow morning!

But I'm not going to get to excited, well just a little bit maybe :w00t:

I've been watching the MetO change the warnings for snow in my location and it is changing nicely. Its gone from sleet to light snow and now heavy snow for tomorrow morning!

All eyes on my trusty lamp post hehe

[Jason T]

HELLO to all. Good to back, Lets see anyone for some wind and snow. It will be like a game of bingo, ALL eyes down.

[Bogman]

Yeah, hoping to be pleasantly surprised

[SnowJoke]

Still looks pretty good on the models for this neck of the woods regarding the snow. It snowed in MK the other afternoon when we were only supposed to get rain showers, only briefly and wet but it was still snow. In this kind of setup you have to take into consideration the cooling effect on the atmosphere from falling precipitation. One or two degrees of cooling may see a lot more wide spread snowfall than expected or forecast by the models.

[WheresTheSnow]

So has the precipitation moved further South that we were supposed to be getting overnight tonight, anyway hope we all still have a chance of some snow falling.

Edited December 15, 2011 by WheresTheSnow

[weatherwise]

So has the precipitation moved further South that we were supposed to be getting overnight tonight, anyway hope we all still have a chance of some snow falling.

Yes, it has - basically if you are in the orange area then you have a reasonable chance of some snow settling - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ee/ee_forecast_warnings.html

The chief forecasters view for the orange area:

An area of low pressure will cross southern Britain with rain turning to snow on its northern and western flank. Surfaces will be wet, so snow will take an hour or two to accumulate, but when it does, 2-5 cm is possible at low levels with 10 cm over higher ground.

Rain may turn to snow across more southeastern parts of England, including the London area, during Friday morning, but most will not settle, except over the highest ground.

[snow freak]

Rain, rain and more rain. That's all we ever seem to get in the south of UK. I would be happy with 10 days of snow each year, but even that seems to be asking too much. Bring back the little ice age and cut off the gulf stream for heaven's sake.

[Snowangel-MK]

Yellow Warning of Snow for East of England

Yellow Warning of Snow for East of England :

Bedford, Cambridgeshire, Central Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire, Luton & Peterborough

valid from 0100 Fri 16 Dec to 1100 Fri 16 Dec

[chilly milly]

Yellow Warning of Snow for East of England

Yellow Warning of Snow for East of England :

Bedford, Cambridgeshire, Central Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire, Luton & Peterborough

valid from 0100 Fri 16 Dec to 1100 Fri 16 Dec

Hmm, when I click on that link MK, there are no warnings for East of England at all. Have they been removed or am I missing something?

Must say it's great to see all the familiar names back here, and some new ones too.

[Snowangel-MK]

Hmm, when I click on that link MK, there are no warnings for East of England at all. Have they been removed or am I missing something?

Must say it's great to see all the familiar names back here, and some new ones too.

http://www.metoffice...88E29FCA30_3_EE

.....also warnings out for London & SE including MK & Bucks

Amber Warning of Snow for London & South East England

Buckinghamshire, Oxfordshire & West Berkshire

valid from 0100 Fri 16 Dec to 1100 Fri 16 Dec

Yellow Warning of Snow for London & South East England :

Bracknell Forest, Hampshire, Milton Keynes, Reading, Slough, Surrey, Windsor and Maidenhead & Wokingham

valid from 0100 Fri 16 Dec to 1100 Fri 16 Dec

[WheresTheSnow]

Yellow Warning of Snow for East of England

Yellow Warning of Snow for East of England :

Bedford, Cambridgeshire, Central Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire, Luton & Peterborough

valid from 0100 Fri 16 Dec to 1100 Fri 16 Dec

Im really confused, I look at that map it shows on the link and its so small and can't understand where everywhere is. I see an image of a snowflake on the map though!

By the way, is it worth staying up tonight or would it be better waking up early tommorow?

Edited December 15, 2011 by WheresTheSnow