Southern England Regional Discussion Thread

[Bluebreezer54]

They do seem to be edging closer and closer to the Nw London suburbs, and the blue skies here have given way to total cloud cover.

[Aceman]

Agreed - it does seem set for a while yet.

I said a few weeks ago in Winter discussion thread that i felt things would 'even out' this winter i.e. average temps, little snow for us - no science involved - just a 'law of winter averages' approach - we're due a benign, average winter.

Nothing i've seen since or looking ahead seems to indicate anything else for us.

I think i called it a winter of two halves i.e. North and South.

The colder, snowier stuff will be confined to north of the Midlands with the odd incursion down to these parts. That's how i see it.

love to be proved wrong - you know from the rlast few winters on this thread i love the cold and snow. My only crumbs of comfort comes from GP's forecast and Chino's thoughts for second half of Winter with a warming stratosphere (not that i really understand much of that stuff! )

Not sure we should be so downbeat already, and there certainly is no such thing as law of averages or being 'due' any type of weather, it is what it is.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Still some snow patches left in the shade on the chilterns when I drove through on my way to the cinema in high Wycombe.

Edited December 17, 2011 by No balls like Snow Balls

[MP-R]

Was up on the Mendips this afternoon and it was fully snowing at 325mASL but sleety rain and hail even 100m down from there. All snow from yesterday had gone though!!

[Bristawl Si]

Not sure we should be so downbeat already, and there certainly is no such thing as law of averages or being 'due' any type of weather, it is what it is.

Actually i disagree.

The best run of Winters in my lifetime, for cold and snow in Bristol, was between 1978 and 1987 - but even in those winters there were milder ones with little or no snow.

Between 1971 and 1978 we had virtually no snow.

Our area is v prone to virtually snowless winters.

So actually i do think we're due a pretty benign winter in terms of cold and snow - i mean it's 17th December and i don't think we've had a frost yet here- unbelievable.

Don't get me wrong, i fully expect areas like The Cotswolds and/or Mendips, the Blackdowns, Exmoor and Dartmoor to still see snow, even in a mildish winter. Although in a fairly benign winter they won't see that much.

Oh, how i'd love to be proved wrong come end Feb.

[Frosty_wsm]

I think anyone who is writing off this winter is, quite frankly, being pathetic to be honest, it's only December!

Having lived in this area all my life, most of the best snowfalls I can remember happened late in the season.

You won't find me writing off winter till we get to march.

[camiscool]

ppn in the north sea moving south worth any intrest?

[Evie]

I think cause we had such early snow last year, I, myself was expecting it early this year too but the winter before last we didn't get snow until January 2010 (I remember as I just found out I was pregnant & the day after it was thick with snow:) I remember being so excited (at 6am in the morning) we put our wellies on and went out in it would love some this winter.

[vortex_liam]

That shower is all sleet according to the v6 radar!

[Aceman]

But would it not be a case of coincidence, surely the chance of what type of winter conditions we can expect is the same as flipping a coin?

So far I've seen wintry showers 3 times this winter whereas someone maybe 30/40 miles away hasn't. I don't think this is due to my location being due anything.

This is only my opinion. I see what your saying though bristol

[lottiekent]

Tiny little spot on the radar just gave a brief sleety shower

[AWD]

Oh God, we've started early ain't we!

Just enjoy our hobby, whatever the weather throws at us!

[vortex_liam]

That little bit at the side of the band may just swipe me

[EML Network]

Was out playing golf in Rustington when that shower passed over this morning, fell as sleety rain, which helped unfreeze the greens, and my game of golf could carry on playing the proper greens instead of the temporary greens I had to play on holes ONE and Two , so for the only time in my life, I was happy it wasn't snow

[Tom Montalbano]

Could be a little bit of snow on the Downs in the extreme east of Kent, as these showers that have tracked down from Norfolk, slip by.

http://www.meteox.co.uk/images.aspx?jaar=-3&voor=&soort=loop1uur&c=&n=&tijdid=20111217231

Regards,

Tom.

[Mark Neal.]

Temperature gone down to 0.6c under clear skies. Dew Point is -1.8c. Earlier's Rain is now turning to ice.

[MP-R]

An annoying thing is that the sort of Pm outbreak we had this week would almost surely bring snow this time in January but so early in the season it's always going to be marginal. The Bristol Channel streamer on 20th/21st December 2009 which brought a few cm of purely snow was quite unusual for so early in the season (i.e. December).

I think January is the month we want to see the most wintry conditions. The continent is cold enough to have an influence and the SSTs will be well down after a chilly December but the sun index will still be virtually nil which will help in preserving snow that has fallen. Often by February the sun is fast on its springtime track meaning lasting snow only comes with cloudy skies a la Feb 2009.

All in all, if the models are still looking the same out into FI by New Year then I will start to worry. Here and now, I wouldn't class what we've had as a cold spell, more a nearer average spell that is has been like the good old zonal spells of the 90s.

[ZONE 51]

Here is a wintry showers/snow shower risk chart for sunday, could see something in our region!

upper 850s/dew points and temps look ok to see snow falling i would say!

high reso charts(ppn) indicate something wintry for the region, although GFS wants it to fall over 300-400m+ i would expect to see some snowflakes mixed in there even in London, i would actualy not rule out if something could produce more than sleet at low level to over the SE!

Edited December 18, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[camiscool]

bbc saying its going to be a dry day though?

[kumquat]

Incredible moon low on the horizon in the East!

[ZONE 51]

bbc saying its going to be a dry day though?

Take a look at our local forecasts,

Sunday:

After a frosty start cloud will bring some wintry showers across many parts during the morning. Most of these will clear around midday to leave a cold and sunny afternoon. Maximum temperature 5 °C.

Updated: 1505 on Sat 17 Dec 2011

The Northwesterly wind should blow some through from the North.

Edited December 18, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Andy Bown]

An extremely frosty morning, everything coated in white .

I think a hoar frost is very likely tonight ahead of the approaching fronts from the West and I wonder whether freezing rain could occur early tomorrow.

[vortex_liam]

Showers coming down the country coming our way!

[yamkin]

Here is a wintry showers/snow shower risk chart for sunday, could see something in our region!

upper 850s/dew points and temps look ok to see snow falling i would say!

high reso charts(ppn) indicate something wintry for the region, although GFS wants it to fall over 300-400m+ i would expect to see some snowflakes mixed in there even in London, i would actualy not rule out if something could produce more than sleet at low level to over the SE!

ElectricSnowStorm, Very good chart. PPN flowing from the Cheshire Gap and towards the SE.

[Coast]

Here's what Snow-Forecast.com have for today:

Snowfall for 12 hrs ending Mon 19 Dec at 0am GMT

Nothing for anyone today, except a tiny ickle corner of Kent and right over Eastbourne and Hastings!!!