Midlands, East Anglia and Three Counties Regional Discussion - Part 4

[TonyH]

Quite that's why its so strange , will be interesting to see what happens.

Edited January 22, 2012 by TonyH

[yorkieblade]

I don't want to jump the gun here but going on current model runs today and the general feeling I have at the moment about where the Weather for the UK is heading over the coming weeks... All I can say is.. I can smell a beast from the East brewing.

I hope your right Andy because we are running out of Winter days now ....!

A very common 2011/12 Winters day here in Sheffield - Warm (10c), windy & sunny

Otherwise it will go down as one of the warmest Winters for a long time :-(

Edited January 22, 2012 by yorkieblade

[syed2878]

Bbc wm news. Gusts of wind brings down trees and blows off houses in birmingham. This was posted on twitter haf an hour ago.

[syed2878]

to my earllyer post. I meant blows rooves off houses cant edit post because using phone.

[Costa Del Fal]

The wind has certainly been stronger than expected here this weekend but didnt think it was that bad to be blowing trees down etc. Mind you we are usually quite sheltered in this area.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12Z gfs operational looks unrealistic, ECMWF will be closer to the eventual outcome, briefly settled and mildish with azores high in charge, thn turning milder/wetter from the west around 2 Feb

[A.J]

"Anyone else finding the model output hard work at the moment?.....so many different trends being picked up and then getting dropped, then picked up again, and then getting dropped again...etc..etc.........for cold lovers it seems that an easterly airflow is patterned on the fringes of the hi-res output (T192) but never seems to come any closer....groundhog day! :wacko: .....and there rarely seems to be cross-board agreement (apart from the very near time scale) in fact it seems the only thing the outputs agree on, is their disagreement!"

posted the above in the 'model chat' thread and thought I'd repeat it here as it's relevant to the thread, am curious on other regional members thoughts on the recent outputs

Edited January 22, 2012 by ajpoolshark

[I remember Atlantic 252]

"Anyone else finding the model output hard work at the moment?.....so many different trends being picked up and then getting dropped, then picked up again, and then getting dropped again...etc..etc.........for cold lovers it seems that an easterly airflow is patterned on the fringes of the hi-res output (T192) but never seems to come any closer....groundhog day! :wacko: .....and there rarely seems to be cross-board agreement (apart from the very near time scale) in fact it seems the only thing the outputs agree on, is their disagreement!"

posted the above in the 'model chat' thread and thought I'd repeat it here as it's relevant to the thread, am curious on other regional members thoughts on the recent outputs

easterly arrives at around 150 on 12Z, but wrong of course, turning cold from the east next weekend, then the snow arrives at the start of next week, gotto be a massive outlier

[A.J]

Not really. Viewing NWP output is only "hard work" if you make it. What I'm seeing is just standard divergence between the models' output once they get to day 5-6. None of this winter season "struggling".

Just take the outputs as they come. Take them seriously once agreement is firm within the T+72-96 timeframe. Get excited once your synoptic setup of choice is within T+24.

I'm well aware of when to take them seriously/excited thank you!...you should know me better than that!....I'm reffering to the frequency of the chopping and changing of the runs, I don't think in 5 years of model watching that I've ever seen so much disagreement and backtracking from one scenario to another on the outputs...and it should be said, the associated mass of conflicting posts that arise in the MOD

Edited January 22, 2012 by ajpoolshark
...expanding my reasoning

[A.J]

You've taken my post the wrong way. I wasn't telling you what you should be doing or anything (though reading back on my post I can see why you might think I was lol). Apologies anyway.

no worries matey!

[TonyH]

A variety of options being presented by the models as there must be a fine line in data (and therefore weather factors) going in, which produces the differing charts. Also the UK is in the boundary zone between the advancing cold air and Atlantic procession.

[Staffordshire]

Anyone got a link to the countryfile forecast?

[cyclonic happiness]

Bbc wm news. Gusts of wind brings down trees and blows off houses in birmingham. This was posted on twitter haf an hour ago.

Yeah, we had an almighty gust of wind that almost blew me over at around 12pm? I think? here's a link to the BBC report.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-16671614

[Bolton67]

Well, i said i was losing a little faith a few days ago, the 18z Gfs loses all my faith. we've been chasing the cold for the last few weeks, ie, always T+196 or t+240

Tonights 18z, for me is the nail in the coffin...

Got to be the poorest winter i've known for sometime.... 4 frosts and 1.. 5min snowfall..

Adios, see you all in summer, when i post how hot will it be.

[andy_leics22]

12Z gfs operational looks unrealistic, ECMWF will be closer to the eventual outcome, briefly settled and mildish with azores high in charge, thn turning milder/wetter from the west around 2 Feb

I don't agree with that at all, I said yesterday that the trends point towards an eventual Easterly and a prolonged cold spell and I still stick to that after seeing the models this morning,

Edited January 23, 2012 by andy_leics22

[Snowangel-MK]

I really can't understand all the doom and gloom, anyone would think it was March......

....and even if it doesn't happen it's not the end of the world....that's booked for December 21st

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I don't agree with that at all, I said yesterday that the trends point towards an eventual Easterly and a prolonged cold spell and I still stick to that after seeing the models this morning,

hopefully Andy but 00Z put us back to reality

[Coast]

Anyone got a link to the countryfile forecast?

49:25

http://www.bbc.co.uk...ile_22_01_2012/

[A.J]

it's worth members to the north & east of our region keeping an eye on the possible developing weather situation for tomorrow morning as a period of heavy wet frontal snow is possible especially for areas with some elevation...all it would take for something rather more significant would be a slight delay in the frontal system's progression, so worth mentioning..the Met Office do have a weather warning effective from 0400z hrs tomorrow... http://www.metoffice...st_warnings.htm

a few of NMM hi-res model images to illustrate...

[andy_leics22]

Hmmmm that's interesting AJ, i've been too bothered by what might happen in 7-14 days time and i've completely overlooked tomorrow :lol:

The Met O warning includes Leicester so it would be nice to see a few flakes.

[Static Prevails]

Looking good for me to see some falling snow tomorrow. It probably won't settle this low down but then again, in February 2011 any accumulations were supposed to be for high ground and we got an hour or two of snow on the floor.

Edited January 23, 2012 by Static Prevails

[Staffordshire]

Whoever does see snow tommorow could get a fair bit, some really intense ppn tommorow morning by the looks of it!

[Snowangel-MK]

Just seen this post by Coast in the Southern regional thread so I thought I would re post in here...

http://forum.netweat...ost__p__2219758

[janetmh71]

Not holding my breath, would be nice to get some snow and that post by Coast suggests that we might but so much can change in a short time. As I am working that night I shall keep an eye out the window every now and then though!! As for tonight looks like rain here anyway.

Edited January 23, 2012 by janetmh71

[PolarWarsaw]

Marginal and height is not exactly something I could say im part of, but it'd be nice to see a few flakes for other snow starved members of the region. If only I had more than 1% confidence that the cold on the 12z would make it to the 12z tommorow, or even past the ECM tonight. Here's hoping.