Spring 2012

[Eugene]

Conditions to me look perfect for some thick fog in the morning rush hour early next week.

March 1997

Some dense fogs led to major motorway pile-ups: e.g. on the 10th four people killed early in the morning on the M42

http://www.wetterzen...00119970310.gif

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png

Edited March 7, 2012 by Eugene

[Eugene]

Also as well as some not mentioning the risk of fog they are also forgetting that while the afternoons will feel warm when/where the fog clears the nights will definately not feel warm with rural temps 0C or just below and it will take time for it to properly warm up. we arent in Mid April onwards like some members seem to think.

PS, its rather comical somebody on TWO posting sunshine amounts will be high by posting charts,LOL i dont think computers can forecast any fog that forms under HP days away.

Edited March 7, 2012 by Eugene

[Eugene]

Probably a long shot but a few ensemble members do build the high further NE than others, i notice GEM 00Z has an attempt at this also, something to watch.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-19-1-240.png?6

[summer blizzard]

Have replied to these posts in the warm spell discussion.

[Eugene]

Yes i just saw, well thats your opinion but mine is that fog will be widespread in central areas of england, not saying its going to last all day of course but it will take its time to clear in rural areas, last week it didnt clear until midday and out walking it was really thick in parts of the countryside and it didnt feel warm under that.

Lets wait until early next week.

[Eugene]

Also you're saying temps will be 0C to 5C at night, well true in urban areas but im talking rural areas where there is a big contrast between urban built up areas and rural valley areas, the west/south midlands is made up of valleys where it gets very cold even in the summer at night under calm clear conditions, temps will definately go under 0C early next week if its calm and clear for prolonged amounts of time in rural areas.

Even the UKMO mention the risk of occasional fog and frost.

[La Bise]

Excellent conditions for inversions that, best book a night off early next week for a pitch on a high hill!

[Eugene]

Yes la bise just a shame its not Nov to Jan where such warm looking charts would produce some proper cold inversions and it would remain cold all day even in sunshine, of course too late for that now but not too late for some cold foggy nights, we arent past the spring equinox yet so nights are still quite long and it can get cold under calm clear conditions especially rurally.

[Eugene]

Looking at dew points on GFS 12Z i am now confident the cloud will clear by saturday night

[Eugene]

Temps cold sunday night too and GFS underdo's temps too by a degree or two, could be a pretty widespread air frost sunday night

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn11417.png

An inversion looking likely like la bise said.

Stll at this time of year some wide diurnal temperature ranges look possible where its sunny, still think fog is a high risk and rurally will be slow to clear but afternoons looks very pleasant once it has, i feared a boring cloudy mild at night high with not much difference between day and night but its increasingly not looking the case now

Edited March 7, 2012 by Eugene

[La Bise]

Splendid stuff, think I'll book monday off and I'll be pitching high on sunday night, nowth like enjoying the sun with a brew whilst your tent thaws and the valleys are under the fog...

[Aaron]

How many sunshine hours has everyone had then? 35.5 hours for me, with 2 sunless days. Hasn't been too bad overall but not as sunny as areas west of the Pennines (even though they usually have the worst weather in the whole of England..). Today is a good example of what has occurred most days.. cloud down the spine of England with clear skies either side.

Edited March 8, 2012 by Aaron

[Scorcher]

How many sunshine hours has everyone had then? 35.5 hours for me, with 2 sunless days. Hasn't been too bad overall but not as sunny as areas west of the Pennines (even though they usually have the worst weather in the whole of England..). Today is a good example of what has occurred most days.. cloud down the spine of England with clear skies either side.

I have a feeling the average sunshine levels are higher west of the Pennines, and I'm certain this is the case nearer to the coast. So on what grounds do you base your assertion that areas west of the Pennines have 'the worst weather in the whole of England'?? Certainly if you enjoy fog you would be far better served being east of the Pennines!

[Gray-Wolf]

Dusty old Day in the Canaries!!

[Aaron]

Don't get me wrong, I like warm, sunny weather.. but.. this is getting a bit tedious now, can we just have some variety please? Extended cloudy/sunny spells don't really interest me!

I have a feeling the average sunshine levels are higher west of the Pennines, and I'm certain this is the case nearer to the coast. So on what grounds do you base your assertion that areas west of the Pennines have 'the worst weather in the whole of England'?? Certainly if you enjoy fog you would be far better served being east of the Pennines!

North west England is not as cold (exceptions such as frost hollows of course) or as snowy as north east England (including Yorkshire in this), is wetter and often cloudier and not as prone to extreme heat or thunderstorms ON AVERAGE I might add.. fog is more common here but the east coast is still as sunny as London and other South-eastern areas.

Edited March 9, 2012 by Aaron

[Eugene]

How can it get tedious when it hasnt even started yet, this week hasnt been warm and sunny, its cloudy today and doesnt feel that warm out.

[Eugene]

TBH since i last looked the orientation of the high has changed, chances have increased of more cloud around, notice UKMO using the word mild and not warm.

Mainly dry, mild and often rather cloudy. However, some brighter spells are likely at times. Mist and fog patches may form overnight in any prolonged cloud breaks.

Edited March 9, 2012 by Eugene

[Thundery wintry showers]

North west England is not as cold (exceptions such as frost hollows of course) or as snowy as north east England (including Yorkshire in this), is wetter and often cloudier and not as prone to extreme heat or thunderstorms ON AVERAGE I might add.. fog is more common here but the east coast is still as sunny as London and other South-eastern areas.

Cumbria is certainly duller and wetter than anywhere to the east of the Pennines, but it's less clear-cut sunshine wise when making comparisons with Lancashire. Manchester gets about as much sunshine in an average year as Newcastle or Leeds, while Blackpool's annual sunshine totals are comparable to those of Scarborough, despite Manchester and Blackpool both being wetter locations.

In the summer the point re. thunder activity only holds true from Teesside southwards. In Northumberland, Tyne & Wear and Durham, the local topography, relatively narrow land mass and relatively high latitude inhibit major convective development. There have been quite a few recent summers with unusually high thunder frequency around the Tyne and Wear area relative to other parts of the country, but in an average year thunder only occurs on about 8 days. Also, Manchester is comparable thunder-wise to most of Yorkshire (about 12 days per year).

The point re. winters is undeniable though- the key difference between west and east is that while most low-lying parts of Cumbria only have a slightly lower frequency of snowfall than areas to the east of the Pennines, when it does fall it is less likely to accumulate on the ground for a decent length of time. During my three years at Lancaster University there was only one occasion with a >50% snow cover that lasted for more than 12 hours, despite numerous wet snowfalls, while the Tyne and Wear area had two >10cm snowfalls and several lesser ones in the same period.

[Milhouse]

TBH since i last looked the orientation of the high has changed, chances have increased of more cloud around, notice UKMO using the word mild and not warm.

just like they would always use the word cool rather than cold in mid September.

[Milhouse]

We will just have to wait and see how it turns out regarding cloud amounts. Looking at how the wind direction turns more southerly that must increase the chances of prolonged sunny periods as the week progresses.

[SP1986]

This area of NW England tends to be favoured with sunshine thanks to being in the lee of high ground, it's also warmer thanmost other parts of the region in the day and night. Wirral and Cheshire (Wirral in an annual case) is the warmest area of northwest England, on average. Cheshire tends to be warmer in summer but cooler in winter.

Today it was supposed to be cloudy, but here the lee effect ensured that there was plenty of sunshine. I'm pretty sure there will be plenty of sunshine to come in the scenario in my area, as there always is, in this scenario.

[Aaron]

Cumbria is certainly duller and wetter than anywhere to the east of the Pennines, but it's less clear-cut sunshine wise when making comparisons with Lancashire. Manchester gets about as much sunshine in an average year as Newcastle or Leeds, while Blackpool's annual sunshine totals are comparable to those of Scarborough, despite Manchester and Blackpool both being wetter locations.

In the summer the point re. thunder activity only holds true from Teesside southwards. In Northumberland, Tyne & Wear and Durham, the local topography, relatively narrow land mass and relatively high latitude inhibit major convective development. There have been quite a few recent summers with unusually high thunder frequency around the Tyne and Wear area relative to other parts of the country, but in an average year thunder only occurs on about 8 days. Also, Manchester is comparable thunder-wise to most of Yorkshire (about 12 days per year).

The point re. winters is undeniable though- the key difference between west and east is that while most low-lying parts of Cumbria only have a slightly lower frequency of snowfall than areas to the east of the Pennines, when it does fall it is less likely to accumulate on the ground for a decent length of time. During my three years at Lancaster University there was only one occasion with a >50% snow cover that lasted for more than 12 hours, despite numerous wet snowfalls, while the Tyne and Wear area had two >10cm snowfalls and several lesser ones in the same period.

The Met Office average thunder days map is quite broad, but shows a big circle of 10 - 12 days around Cheshire. Still, I find Yorkshire in particular to be more continental in nature then north west England, often colder in winter and warmer in summer, while areas such as Durham and Northmuberland are usually the snowiest places in England. I'm also impressed by Newcastle's record high at 33C, only a degree lower then Manchester despite being much further north.

[March Blizzard]

"North west England is not as cold (exceptions such as frost hollows of course) or as snowy as north east England (including Yorkshire in this), is wetter and often cloudier and not as prone to extreme heat or thunderstorms ON AVERAGE I might add.. fog is more common here but the east coast is still as sunny as London and other South-eastern areas."

Does anyone else not find it somewhat unusual that in recent winter cold the west has seemingly been colder than the east? In December 2010 Crosby (NW coast) recorded a temperature of -17.6C while in early Feb this year Holbeach (East Coast) only managed -15.6C. Bear in mind the seas off coastal Lincolnshire/Norfolk are the coldest in the UK and the seas are colder in Feb than they are in December. Also, it seemed a waste of time to check the East Midlands or North East on the Met office latest observations website during cold spells when the NW and west Midlands stations were consistantly colder. Yorkshire was more hit and miss. I was actually glad for cold weather fans in the east when they got their share in early Feb. In theory the east should be colder in winter as it borders a colder sea and is closer to the continent, but in practice it doesn't always ring true.

I think we in the Manchester area get the best of both worlds, it's very much in the maritime influence like the rest of the NW but is far inland and south-east enough to experience winter cold and summer heat more commonly associated with eastern/central locations.

On topic, I'm finding this monotomous weather extremely boring. I prefer seasonal weather and would rather see mild/warm and calm days in May, not March. I like my Marches to be blustery and chilly, snow one day then sun the other, mild to warm maxima and cool to low minima. The high pressue can't go soon enough as far as im concerned!

[Alex95]

Cumbria probably has the most varied climates out of all the English counties; The west/south west coast are mild year round with little winter snow, the Lake District mountains see lots of rain and snow and are often quite cool, the towns in the Lake Distict such as Keswick and Grasmere see generally cool summers and average winters by a UK standard, the east of the county such as Penrith, Appleby and Shap do almost as well as NE England for snow, especially Shap which is often actually snowier, and the summers aren't too bad, whilst up in the Pennines you have Alston and Nenthead which are probably the snowiest settlements in England and the summers are like a London winter.

For a weather enthusiast, Cumbria is a good place to be, especially as you can climb a mountain and get a good view of the cloudscapes!

[AderynCoch]

Comparing the climates of NW and NE England is like comparing the climate of the USA with that of China - there's a lot more variation within the regions than there is between them. The Wirral is probably closer to SE England in terms of rainfall, temperatures and sunshine than it is to the Lake District.

Another thing to consider is that the past few summers have seen a ridiculous number of NW/SE splits, resulting in a very disappointing run of summers here since 2006. I would say summers in Liverpool usually compare favourably to most of Yorkshire and the North East, excepting certain areas like Doncaster and the Vale of York.

Winterwise, it's a no-brainer - this place sucks. Ironic then that winters have been far better than summers in recent years.

Edited March 9, 2012 by AderynCoch