Spring 2012

[sebastiaan1973]

http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/3213/fruehjahr12bildproperty.jpg dwd prediction

[Milhouse]

Summer 2003 is the 2nd warmest summer since 1976 (the warmest is 1995). It was a summer characterised by almost constant warmth, with the exception of the first week of July. For such a warm summer it was quite wet at times, so i'm sure a repeat would go down quite well. It wasnt until August and into September that we saw very low rainfall.

[Aaron]

IN Leeds:

June 2003 mean maximum: 21.7c

July 2003 mean maximum: 22.3c

August 2003 mean maximum: 23.1c

Between 1986 and 2003, the mean maximum for Leeds in July was 21.2c and in August 21.1c, so above average but not by a large margin, not hot either, but it was still pleasantly warm and I would like a repeat

[Thundery wintry showers]

June 2003 was a notably warm month (characterised by consistent rather than exceptional warmth) and most central and eastern parts of Britain were wetter and sunnier than average, due to some heavy short-lived downpours. It was a thundery month in the Tyne and Wear area with some particularly big storms on the 17th and 22nd. It was also quite a sunny month in Lancaster (NW Lancs). However many western areas (W Scotland and Ireland) had a relatively cloudy wet month. The prevailing pattern in June 2003 was unusual- if you take the blocked "Atlantic trough/Euro high" pattern of Julys 1994/1995/2006 and shift the Atlantic trough a bit further east and intensify it, then you have June 2003's pattern.

July 2003 had a stronger west-east split, with most eastern areas warm and fairly sunny with close to average rainfall, but it was dull and wet in the west. There was a hot sunny spell midmonth that affected most of the country, but also a cloudy wet spell in the last week that affected most parts.

August 2003 began like a hotter version of August 1995 with plenty of hot sunshine during the 1st-10th, record temperatures for some, and a thundery breakdown in northern England on the 10th/11th, the rest of the month then continued dry but sunshine amounts were variable, slightly above normal in many regions but rather below in some others, such as Shropshire where monthly sunshine totals fell slightly short of the long-term normal despite the sunny 1st-10th.

Thus in Tyneside 2003 certainly went down as a good summer, with all three months warmer and sunnier than average, but I doubt that it would have done so in Shropshire where July and the last two-thirds of August were quite dull. On balance though I would certainly welcome a pattern like the June 2003 one.

[Isolated Frost]

Is this the summer thread or spring thread?

Does anyone have a link for the sunshine stats of springs?

[Thundery wintry showers]

The recent record-breaking warm springs of 2007 and 2011 were also notably sunny in most regions, thanks to the March/April totals (especially the respective Aprils). In neither case was the May particularly sunny, indeed May 2007 was quite dull in most parts of the country, though about average sunshine-wise in the Tyne and Wear area.

Other sunny springs since the 1990s were 1990 (all months sunnier than average, except for some western areas during March), 1995 (all three months sunnier than average except for the northern half of Scotland, March exceptionally sunny, April moderately sunny and May slightly above average), 1997 (southern and eastern England were sunny in all three months, though most of Scotland and NW England had a dull April) and 2003 (March and to a lesser extent April were exceptionally sunny, though May was dull in the west).

At a more local level the springs of 1994 and 2001 were pretty sunny across eastern Scotland and parts of NE England- May 2001 had in excess of 250 hours of sunshine in some of those areas, and not far short of the totals seen in August 1995/July 2006.

A couple of other Aprils were mentioned, 1991 and 2004. April 1991 was a mixed episodic month while April 2004 was warm but also dull and wet in most regions, similar to April 1993- in spring the "warm/dry/sunny" relationship is weaker than it is in high summer (July/August).

[sebastiaan1973]

Probably too warm.

[Cheshire Freeze]

It's VERY unusual to get a warm Greenland aswell as most of Europe at the same time. Pinch of salt I think RE chart above

[Alex]

Surely if we are to have a very warm or record breaking month it should be May or June. I definitely can't remember a very good May for a while. 2008 was good but not great. 1998 I think was a good May.

[Milhouse]

Surely if we are to have a very warm or record breaking month it should be May or June. I definitely can't remember a very good May for a while. 2008 was good but not great. 1998 I think was a good May.

I'm with you regarding May 2008. It was the warmest May since 1992 but it doesnt stick in my mind as a particularly god month. Reviewing the charts it seems that winds were very persistent from the east so temperatures would have been pegged back a lot here due to the North Sea still being quite cold. Must have been a lovely month for central and western areas.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

May 2010 good, one of my hottest days of summer 2010 was 23rd May

[Summer Sun]

James Madden has issued his Spring and Summer forecast's today,

Spring Weather Forecast 2012

Now although the spring and autumn periods have become an extremely difficult period to forecast for in recent years, due to some of the unusual patterns that have developed. March and into mid April are looking to offer some relatively dry weather at times in terms of rainfall amounts at present. This is likely to create the usual drought fears as we head into the summer as some reservoirs are already operating at low levels after the below average rainfall from this winter.

The March to April period is also initially looking like a mixed bag of cold and milder weather at times. It will also be particularly windy at times with some wintry showers in places within this period too. However, the latter part of April and into May could offer some potentially warmer and sunnier periods of weather at times. There does remain some uncertainty with myself in regard to the actual rainfall amounts that we are likely to experience in the second half of spring at present. On this basis, I will say that the rainfall amounts are likely to be near or below average for the spring period as a whole. Temperatures are also likely to be near or below average as a whole for spring dependent upon the May period too.

Disclaimer – If any aspect of my original long range forecast requires amendment, I will make an appropriate revision of this for up to two months in advance when possible. This is effectively still a long range forecast in itself, if you compare this to that of others. Please allow some slight deviations in exact timing of given scenarios, I.e. some months may slightly overlap or periods of certain weather types may be more prolonged/shorter than originally forecast, due to the nature of long range weather forecasting and how far ahead this forecast is being issued.

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

The summer forecast can be found in the media thread

[Alex]

May 2010 good, one of my hottest days of summer 2010 was 23rd May

I would have to disagree, although it was a dry month. Temperatures were below average and there were a few days early on that felt more like march than late spring. However this was followed by a decent June and a superb July! August 2010 was poor though.

[Thundery wintry showers]

After a showery and locally thundery start, May 2008 became dry, sunny and increasingly hot up to the 12th, though eastern coastal areas were cooler thanks to onshore breezes. However, the second half was much cloudier for most parts of the country as low pressure became prominent to the south and easterly winds brought a lot of low cloud in off the North Sea. The contrast was felt to the extreme in Norwich, where according to Philip Eden in Weather Log, the sun shone for upwards of 14 hours on seven consecutive days, with 165 hours total from the 1st-15th inclusive, and in addition one of the days got up to 26-27C. Despite this, the month's total was only 10-20% above the local average.

May 1998 was warm, dry and fairly sunny across most of the country but the emphasis was on the warmth rather than sun or dryness, and the warmth was achieved with the assistance of a high average minimum. Taking England and Wales as a whole the Mays of 1989, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2009 and 2010 were all sunnier. It all boils down to personal preference of course, but I doubt that many heat/sun lovers would place May 1998 in anywhere near the same class as those of 1989 and 1992.

[Evening thunder]

The 11th May 2008 was the hottest day of the year here, by a whole degree. (reached 26.3C). Interestingly 3 out of the last 4 years have had the highest yearly maximum before the solstice: 2008 (11th May), 2009 (1st June), 2011 (3rd June). This despite the expected thermal lag and the sea which often brings sea breezes being cooler at this time of year (though the hottest days tend to occur on days with no sea breeze).

The yearly maxima have been very consistent in the last 4 years too (26.3C, 26.1C, 26.3C, 26.4C). I haven't got records for before this.

[Alex]

The 11th May 2008 was the hottest day of the year here, by a whole degree. (reached 26.3C). Interestingly 3 out of the last 4 years have had the highest yearly maximum before the solstice: 2008 (11th May), 2009 (1st June), 2011 (3rd June). This despite the expected thermal lag and the sea which often brings sea breezes being cooler at this time of year (though the hottest days tend to occur on days with no sea breeze).

The yearly maxima have been very consistent in the last 4 years too (26.3C, 26.1C, 26.3C, 26.4C). I haven't got records for before this.

Interesting that you point this out because in Essex the opposite is true all highest temps have come after the solstice in recent Years. Apologies I haven't got precise data for below.

2011 : end of June : 32c

2010: beginning of July (9/10?) : 31c

2009: August : 29c

2008: July/August

2007: August

2006: July

[MP-R]

All down to sypnoptics.

Quite often in May and June, the hot weather has come from an easterly or even northeasterly direction, leading to high temperatures in Exeter as the air has either been very calm or travelled over warm land. Though, a breeze probably pegs temperatures slightly in Essex.

July and August however seem to see heat from the south and southeast as the Atlantic fires up a bit, favouring the east over the west. Quite often, as in 2011, the heat came with a lot of cloud so it was more humid and unimpressively hot (only 25-27C in the west) compared to 30-31C in the east. And of course, Exeter is known to get sea breezes from the southeast keeping temperatures down slightly.

That's what I put it down to anyway.

[Summer Sun]

The met office have updated there Contingency planners page which gives a 3 month outlook,

SUMMARY - TEMPERATURE:

Our UK-average temperature forecast for spring (March-April-May) shows a range of possible outcomes that is rather warmer than the range observed between 1971 and 2000 (our standard climatological reference period), but quite similar to the last decade; we believe that this is largely due to climate change.

Normally, as we move through March, the risk of adverse wintry weather tends to decline; at present there are no clear signs that this year will be any different. The probability that mean UK temperature for March-April-May will fall into the coldest of our five categories is less than 5%, whilst the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is about 55% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).

SUMMARY - PRECIPITATION:

Rainfall substantially above average is needed in southern, eastern and central England during the early spring (March-April) period for a recovery of the water resources situation here - the chances of this happening are very low.

During March the forecast for the UK as a whole favours dry weather, and the wind direction preferred in our forecasts makes the southeast of the UK more prone to dry weather than the northwest.

The probability that UK precipitation for March-April-May will fall into the driest of our five categories is 20-25% whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 10-15% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).

http://www.metoffice...ngency-planners

[Alex]

The met office have updated there Contingency planners page which gives a 3 month outlook,

SUMMARY - TEMPERATURE:

Our UK-average temperature forecast for spring (March-April-May) shows a range of possible outcomes that is rather warmer than the range observed between 1971 and 2000 (our standard climatological reference period), but quite similar to the last decade; we believe that this is largely due to climate change.

Normally, as we move through March, the risk of adverse wintry weather tends to decline; at present there are no clear signs that this year will be any different. The probability that mean UK temperature for March-April-May will fall into the coldest of our five categories is less than 5%, whilst the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is about 55% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).

SUMMARY - PRECIPITATION:

Rainfall substantially above average is needed in southern, eastern and central England during the early spring (March-April) period for a recovery of the water resources situation here - the chances of this happening are very low.

During March the forecast for the UK as a whole favours dry weather, and the wind direction preferred in our forecasts makes the southeast of the UK more prone to dry weather than the northwest.

The probability that UK precipitation for March-April-May will fall into the driest of our five categories is 20-25% whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 10-15% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).

http://www.metoffice...ngency-planners

Interesting stuff from the met office. I am dreading the thought though that we will have a similar summer to last year, as I said above a very warm/record breaking May or June would be nice.

[damianslaw]

Met Office playing it very safe once again... going with the pattern of recent springs and a tendency for warmer than average conditions and drier than average conditions. Personally I foresee a rather chilly spring warming up in May, and also an increasingly wet spring unfortunately.. recent May's have been quite wet and much wetter than April.

I'd much rather we had a warm dry May than a warm dry April. May 2008 saw a superb first half, but degenerated into a rain fest during the second half. May 2009 and 2010 were very sunny and quite dry but rather chilly at times. Last May started off promisingly but quickly became dull and wet with average temps. May 07 was wet and chilly. May 06 was probably the last fairly decent May throughout.

[Evening thunder]

Interesting that you point this out because in Essex the opposite is true all highest temps have come after the solstice in recent Years. Apologies I haven't got precise data for below.

2011 : end of June : 32c

2010: beginning of July (9/10?) : 31c

2009: August : 29c

2008: July/August

2007: August

2006: July

Interesting. 2010 did have pretty much the same date with the warmest temp on the 9th here. I think 2006/7 were similar here too but don't have proper records.

All down to sypnoptics.

Quite often in May and June, the hot weather has come from an easterly or even northeasterly direction, leading to high temperatures in Exeter as the air has either been very calm or travelled over warm land. Though, a breeze probably pegs temperatures slightly in Essex.

July and August however seem to see heat from the south and southeast as the Atlantic fires up a bit, favouring the east over the west. Quite often, as in 2011, the heat came with a lot of cloud so it was more humid and unimpressively hot (only 25-27C in the west) compared to 30-31C in the east. And of course, Exeter is known to get sea breezes from the southeast keeping temperatures down slightly.

That's what I put it down to anyway.

Pretty much spot on to what I would say there. The highest temps usually come with an easterly here.

[leicsnow]

It is strange that the run of above average months since September look set to continue. Surely the law of averages must change things now.

[DR Hosking]

It is strange that the run of above average months since September look set to continue. Surely the law of averages must change things now.

Its probable February will finish below average after adjustments, ok very slightly below average! Law of averages doesnt really do weather, sure we had a run or over 10 above average months only a few years back.

[summer blizzard]

It is strange that the run of above average months since September look set to continue. Surely the law of averages must change things now.

Phillip Eden has the Feb CET below both the 1981-2010 and 1971-2000 average, Hadley will be close.

Its probable February will finish below average after adjustments, ok very slightly below average! Law of averages doesnt really do weather, sure we had a run or over 10 above average months only a few years back.

I recall it being sixteen months around 04-05.

[Alex]

Phillip Eden has the Feb CET below both the 1981-2010 and 1971-2000 average, Hadley will be close.

I recall it being sixteen months around 04-05.

How's the QBO data looking SB?

It would be nice to finally break May or Junes record which has been standing a long time!