Spring 2012

[Isolated Frost]

I'm optimistically looking for over 500hrs of sunshine this Spring.

The sunnier, the better. I'm hoping for some cold, wintry showers via arctic northerlies and polar north-westerlies for March and April- with warm sunny spells in between. And then more of a shift in May towards thundery convection and hot spells- setting us into a summer consisting of June 76, July 06 and August 95

This spring for London regarding sunshine values

March 200hrs

April 175hrs

May 325hrs

[Aaron]

Too sunny for me!

[Isolated Frost]

No such thing as not sunny enough! My perfect spring week would be as such:

HP retrogresses towards mid-atlantic and greenland, with the azores high ridging northwards. A trough then sinks southwards towards the benelux and enforces a strong northerly, snow showers nationwide with a brisk wind, blizzards in the north. The high then fades and slowly progresses back east- allowing high pressure to cover the nation again, warm and sunny for a few days, with some fair cloud in the north, but then the azores high strengthens and moves over the UK, introducing very warm air and then very high temperatures accompanied with sunshine, this then pushes east with an advancing atlantic trough, leaving the end of the week to allow for a thundery breakdown, after a changeable week, Sunday provides a lighting display.

[Scorcher]

And then more of a shift in May towards thundery convection and hot spells- setting us into a summer consisting of June 76, July 06 and August 95

We can dream- personally I'd also like to add September 2006 and October 2001 to those as well...

[Weather-history]

We can dream- personally I'd also like to add September 2006 and October 2001 to those as well...

Do you actually remember much of October 2001 or are you choosing it because it is the mildest October on record? For such a warm month, it was not that memorable it has to be said.

[summer blizzard]

Personally i view September and October as the only months i condone gales and rain in.

[BornFromTheVoid]

This winter has been so dull in Ireland, I'm actually looking forward to some very mild weather next week. Looks like 16C could be reached on Thursday, might actually feel pleasant.

Edited February 17, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[Scorcher]

Do you actually remember much of October 2001 or are you choosing it because it is the mildest October on record? For such a warm month, it was not that memorable it has to be said.

Solely because of the consistent warmth, although October 2011 was perhaps more memorable with the early heatwave. Come to think of it, 2005 was only slightly cooler than 2001 and was probably more interesting and 1995 was another good one for warm weather.

[Aaron]

October 2001 was warm but very sunny it was not, October 2006 was sunnier and just as warm

[Thundery wintry showers]

October 1995 was the only exceptionally warm October of recent years that also had well above average sunshine in most regions, and most regions were also very dry (apart from western Scotland where it was vvery wet, though still with close to average sunshine). Octobers 2001, 2005 and 2006 were all characterised by an unusually high average minimum, with sunshine amounts near average in 2001 and 2006 and below in 2005. The recent tendency for unusually warm Octobers to be relatively cloudy and windy with high minima was the exception rather than the rule prior to the 1990s, though there was a good example of one in 1968. Octobers 1921 and 1959 were exceptionally sunny and dry for most as well as very warm.

[A Winter's Tale]

CSS Spring Forecast 2012

Overview

With Winter being many Atlantic dominated with a persistent Azores High, I believe that a very interesting Spring is on the cards. I believe that March will start of Atlantic Dominated but I do believe that we will see it become quieter - I believe that his could result in a mixture of cold and warm spells for March and April with plenty of sunshine and increasing the risk of drought although showers may still be possible in the NW. I believe, usually, we'd atleast expect a decent warm spell between Mid April and Mid June so I'm confident that May will see periods of warmth, sunshine and potential thundery breakdowns but it's a question of whether May would continue being generally warm and dry or will the Atlantic return bring wet conditions but with a possibility for cool, showery conditions. I believe that this Spring will be pivotal in the summer that we get - particulary April and May so a warm theme of May well carry on into June but eventually the Atlantic may return leading to poor periods in summer.

MARCH

March is set to start of a wet, windy, unsettled and mild not with some sunny, showery spells between fronts. However as we progress through the month, I expect there to be an increase in northerly outbreaks and potential easterlies as we see height rises return either over Iceland or Greenland. This would mean that the jet stream will move south for periods resulting in spells that include northerlies with snow showers to the north but generally sunny conditions, however the Atlantic will intervene at times. Towards the final third of the month, I expect to see some warmer days mixed in with the northerlies, fronts and a continued sunny flavour.

APRIL

I expect April to start on a showery note with westerly winds, these generally cool but there may be the odd warmer day thrown in. However, eventually I see winds turning to more of a northerly setting up and cool-cold early-middle part of the month with a continued risk of snow to the north. Following this, I expect a return to fronts from the west breaking up long, periods of generally sunny conditions with a mixture of settled to showery, cool to warm. During the final part of the month, I expect temperatures to be on rise and more undisturbed periods of sunshine.

MAY

I expect the very early stages of May to see sunny, but pleasant to warm temperatures with the odd cool night as the April shower regime begins to fade out. As we progress, we'll see an increase in temperatures but there may be the odd front to break up seperate periods of sunshine and warmth. Towards the middle of the month, I expect the Atlantic to return and subsequently there may initially be some thundery conditions. Following this we may see a period with low pressure systems crossing over the UK bringing rain, but clearing quickly to introduce cooler but sunny conditions with the threat of wintryness on the northern hills. There may also be the odd day thrown in. This shouldn't last too long as to finish off the month, I expect a trend for a return to sunnier conditions with warmth but these periods may be regular - but short lived.

CSS

[ZONE 51]

CSS excellent and interesting forecast. I can agree on many things you present in your forecast. For May i expect a dry and very warm, even hot month for the South, and maybe Northern areas, but it all depends on how strong the Azores can move up, the Atlantic lows skimming up towards the northwest, a continental influence from high pressure is also a possibility, this resulting in hot and more humid weather, and thundery developments, the ppn outlooks for May showing on some data are high, perhaps this is indicating thundery lows, resulting in thunderstorms, im expecting the Azores to be the influential factor resulting in dry conditions for the South, at times the continental high where thundery developments are likely as moist hot air push up from the south, if France has above average rainfall showing on some data then i see this as those thundery lows, lows moving up from the south and across central England? with the Scottish Mountains breaking out heavy storms? so overall if this happens then locally very wet could be the result, what long range ppn data could be expecting is an active Atlantic with wet weather frequently, or low pressure sitting out west with thundery lows pulled up from the s/sw with hot air?

Anyway thats my thoughts on that month.

Edited February 18, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

The chart im on about is the May ppn one indicating above average rainfall from the Nw long range spring forecast.

It would be good if it did occur as we are needing the rainfall, although we do not want floods, but persistant steady rainfall, also we want real sunny warm weather so i hope rain comes at night! which would be better with less evaporation from it anyway.

Edited February 18, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Aaron]

I'm hoping for at least one month with rainfall above 100mm.. the last time that happened here was November 2009

Edited February 18, 2012 by Aaron

[Bottesford]

I'm hoping for at least one month with rainfall above 100mm.. the last time that happened here was November 2009

If it has to be in spring - make it March. If not then wet months like that can wait till autumn where they belong!

Although saying that if we can get some hefty showers in April to get such a high rainfall amount then that's ok. That would mean some areas getting tons and others getting very little however.

I think we're overdue the dreaded North Sea low cloud from weak easterlies as we've got away with them this winter apart from maybe one or two days. Spring is the most common time of that sort of vile murk. I'm just hoping if we must have it we get it over with earlier in the season. I can remember a June day a few years back that was predicted to be very warm & sunny but instead was 13c and grey with a nippy wind on. Don't want to see that again!

[Isolated Frost]

I'd hope March and April's rainfall here will be under 50mm each- mostly coming in the form of cold fronts and convective showers- but I'd prefer sunny, warm days, chilling in the garden- playing football and having some lemonade , ahhhhh

May can have more rainfall- but only at night in the form of thundery outbreaks- sunshine with temps between 20-25c by day, still lovely in the evening, and a cooler 10c in the morning, only to warm up again.

And then summer... Beautiful tranquil calm mornings, temps around 15c with a strong sun, rising quickly to around 25-30c by day, clear skies and a very light warm breeze. Barbeques and chilled drinks- and another game of football...

Note to self, this is britain, this will never, ever, happen apart from 2 day stints..

The sunnier and warmer the better, hoping for some early warmth next week. Then warm and sunny until September with some arctic outbreaks in March and April to cool heatwave britain down !

[Scorcher]

And then summer... Beautiful tranquil calm mornings, temps around 15c with a strong sun, rising quickly to around 25-30c by day, clear skies and a very light warm breeze. Barbeques and chilled drinks- and another game of football...

Note to self, this is britain, this will never, ever, happen apart from 2 day stints..

It has happened though, just not much in the past few years. To pick out an extreme example, in 1976 many places had a ten day period or longer of consecutive days with temperatures above 30C. Even at Manchester Airport there were 16 consecutive days above 25C. More recently the same location saw 15 consecutive days above 25C in July 2006. I imagine it was far more impressive than this in the South East but I haven't looked at the figures.

[Weather-history]

We're long overdue a cold, snowy spring

Not sure about a snowy one, but just by simple logic that we had the coldest winter for the CET for 3 decades and the coolest summer for 2 decades just recently then we surely can still have a notably cool spring. Spring is just the season between these two. I see no reason why this can't happen.

[A Winter's Tale]

Because of the generally mild conditions throughout the second half of winter, at this stage, considering how mild things are and how strong the sun is, I think we have entered Spring; a contrast to 2010 when Winter went into March.

Today was like a wintry day in mid April with the snow failing to do anything and the sun light is looking different. So all this talk about warmth soon actually doesn't sound too bad but I don't want the type of mild that brings endless, heavy rain with it!

And as we all know, winter is very much a part of Spring, and with the cold end of Spring coming up - March, then I'm looking forward to seeing wintryness and the potential for the best snowfalls of the season; however generally I'm looking for sunshine and varied temperatures.

WHAT IS EVERYONE'S THOUGHTS ON MARCH?

SYNOPTICALLY, HOW DO YOU SEE IT BEING?

CET?

HOW MUCH SNOW?

FIRST WARMTH?

.....

[Milhouse]

At this stage i'd say that we are in for quite a westerly start to the month but around mid month i expect high pressure to build over or near to the UK. It is then that we could see the greatest chance for a cold spell with HP being sufficiently far north to bring in an easterly flow, which would bring that grotesque combination of cold temperatures and north sea mist and low cloud. But at this time of year winds can soon switch round to a warmer southwesterly direction with an associated dramatic rise in temperature. But i do see cold coming from the east round an area of HP rather than from the north. Thats all i'm willing to commit myself to so i dont want to look any further ahead.

CET wise i am saying mild first week, becoming progressively colder, then mild to finish. Therefore something around 6.5C seems a good bet.

20c wont be reached in March this year. I will say 17c in the final week will be the max for the month.

I can also see strong indications for another dry month.

Snow amounts is a difficult one to call. Perhaps a few flurries being brought in on an easterly mid month. Northern Scotland will see occasional falls as it usually does in March as winds veer northwesterly.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Like most others on this forum, my interest in wintry weather wanes as the season progresses and vice versa for unusual warmth and sunshine, but with me it's a slow emphasis shift, i.e. in December I will typically enjoy sunshine and snow showers more than a heatwave, and by May it is typically the other way around, but I will still welcome both types of weather. I think the reason why this causes clashes is that for many others it is an abrupt switch (i.e. passionately loving snow until the Xth of March then passionately hating it) leading to a conflict between black-and-white thinking vs. being various shades of grey. This sort of issue is also familiar in polarised humanitarian debates.

At the moment given the model outputs and atmospheric signals I am struggling to see anything other than a warm start to spring with high pressure close to the south of the UK, not dissimilar to four out of the past five years (2008 being a notable exception), probably dry and sunny in the south and cloudy and wet in western and northern Scotland. It is also a pattern that is sometimes very hard to break out of- think of Marches 1990, 1997 and 2000 for example.

[A Winter's Tale]

Like most others on this forum, my interest in wintry weather wanes as the season progresses and vice versa for unusual warmth and sunshine, but with me it's a slow emphasis shift, i.e. in December I will typically enjoy sunshine and snow showers more than a heatwave, and by May it is typically the other way around, but I will still welcome both types of weather. I think the reason why this causes clashes is that for many others it is an abrupt switch (i.e. passionately loving snow until the Xth of March then passionately hating it) leading to a conflict between black-and-white thinking vs. being various shades of grey. This sort of issue is also familiar in polarised humanitarian debates.

At the moment given the model outputs and atmospheric signals I am struggling to see anything other than a warm start to spring with high pressure close to the south of the UK, not dissimilar to four out of the past five years (2008 being a notable exception), probably dry and sunny in the south and cloudy and wet in western and northern Scotland. It is also a pattern that is sometimes very hard to break out of- think of Marches 1990, 1997 and 2000 for example.

Interesting! I created a thread for seasonal forecasts so If you or anyone else wants to have a punt at what Spring might be like then have a go! http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/

[Optimus Prime]

A spring like 2003, 2007 or 2011 will do wonderfully.

[Scorcher]

2003 was a superb spring IMO, that really sunny and mild March and a notable early heatwave in mid April. Just a shame May was rather unsettled. Would take that though if we could have a similar summer to that year!

[A Winter's Tale]

2003 was a superb spring IMO, that really sunny and mild March and a notable early heatwave in mid April. Just a shame May was rather unsettled. Would take that though if we could have a similar summer to that year!

I think we are due a warm summer this year like 2006. I would love to see a summer like 2006. To have warm days like that in June/July would be fantastic as long as it's not the unbearable muggy or dry type - instead I'd prefer to have a breeze during hot, sunny days.

For Spring, the key ingredient for a good Spring is lots of sunshine, to have aspects of both winter and summer, and to have a whole load of weather inbetween. Mainly dry and sunny with any rain being over night. March to be the winter month - however still more Spring like, warmer conditions and other weather inbetween; a mixed April with elements of winter and summer but mostly cool-pleasant with showers and sunshine. May to be the summer month with lots of sunshine and warmth, some needed rain to avoid droughts (over night) and some cooler periods.

My perfect Spring:

Spring

March:

We have a final attack from the NE to begin Spring with very cold conditions and notable snow for the North and East. Winds then changing to a northerly before the Atlantic breaksthrough with a frontal snowfall. Then it becomes far more settled and sunny with high pressure and the first warmth. Finally, the Atlantic takes control bringing over night rain and sunny days with varied temperatures depending on the airstream, some days warm, some days cool with hail and hill snow. To finish the month, we have a northerly outbreak bringing some regular light snow showers before an area of low pressure moves north over the UK stalls over Scotland resulting in major snowfall. Mean Max: 8C Mean Min: 2C

April:

A mixed month with generally sunny but showery conditions inbetween overnight fronts with some mild conditions and some cold. However, one notable northerly outbreak around mid-month leading to cold conditions with snow showers and some accumilations in an unstable flow. However, for the final third of the month, high pressure takes control and we have lots of sunny and pleasant to warm temperatures. Mean Max: 15C Mean Min: 5C

May:

Warm and sunny to begin with some cool nights and gradually getting warmer, until the 12th when we see intesnse thunderstorms. Fronts crossing the UK with overnight rain and sunny days, but cool in polar westerly winds with some hail showers before we see a potent northerly bringing hill snow and to lower levels in Scotland. For the final third of the month, a return to sunny and warm conditions with any rain tending to occur during the night. Mean Max: 18C Mean Min: 6C

So a cold March that we've not seen in past 20 years but still with other typical spring weather, an April with some aspects of 2011 and some aspects of winter but mainly typical showery, varied temps and sunny conditions that we've seen in most April's before 2011 (2001 perhaps could be nice?). A May not like 2011 would be nice, instead more like some of more recent ones but I'd love to see a great empahsis on warmth and sunshine spells however a notable cold spell in the middle like 1997 or 2010 would be nice and some other interesting weather would be great but yet again - an emphasis on sunshine and warmth.

And for Summer, 2006 would be great. Some really warm days, mornings and evenings however I'd love to see cool nights with mist aswell. Some occasional heavy rainfall to avoid drought. I'd like to see a more changeable August but still with regular warm, sunny periods inbetween regular, short-lived fronts. Cool end to remind that Autumn is coming would be nice.