Spring 2012

[summer blizzard]

Stratosphere has gone below average again which will have a lag in prompting one last gasp from the polar vortex in March so i will go for westerlies in March with a N/S split.

[0zzy]

The cold and snowy weather can be fun at times but I am starting to miss the mild weather as my personal preference is for milder conditions. Lets hope for normal spring weather warm sunshine at times with the occasional sprind rain shower and some snow mixed in for the snow lovers B)

[Aaron]

There's been a lack of snow in Spring in recent years.. usually our last proper snowfall here will occur in March and most years give a few showers of snow in April..

As far as I'm concerned, March and April are definitely not warm months.. and given the summers of 2011 and 2007, a warm spring is surely the last thing a heat lover wants?

[Alex95]

Hopecast:

March

1st - 15th: Very mild, with temperatures reaching 15-20°C.

16th - 25th: NE'ly winds will set in, bringing a repeat of Nov 2010, 30cm+ of snow in the North and East.

26th - 31st: Gradual thaw of lying snow as temperatures slowly climb back to normal.

April

1st - 9th: Southerly winds will bring warmer temperatures back to the UK. 18-23°C.

10th - 13th: A cold front will move in from the NW, bringing some thunderstorms as the temperatures behind the front will be 20°C colder than those ahead of it. There will then be a few days of sunshine and snow showers.

14th - 27th: High pressure will settle over the UK, with large diurnal variations in temperatures. 15-20°C by day, but frosty at night.

28th - 30th: High pressure drifts east, with temperatures and humidity rising. 20-25°C

May

1st - 6th: Prolonged southerly winds with temperatures topping 30°C in the SE, and 24-28°C elsewhere. Mostly dry, bar a few thundery showers in the S and W.

7th - 14th: A cold front leads to a spell of sunshine and showers, which may turn thundery at times. Temperatures still 15-20°C and the winds are blowing from the SW.

15th - 22nd: High pressure returns to the UK, with temperatures slowly climbing into the low twenties everywhere under unbroken sunshine. By the end of the period, one or two places could reach the high twenties.

23rd - 29th: The high pressure drifts eastwards again, and temperatures soar under hot southerly winds. 30-35°C widespread with dewpoints in the mid twenties. It will feel like the tropics with intense thunderstorms firing up daily across the country.

30th - 31st: A spectacular thundery breakdown leads to more comfortable weather. Temperatures closer to 20°C as June approaches.

That sounds quite perfect to me

There's been a lack of snow in Spring in recent years.. usually our last proper snowfall here will occur in March and most years give a few showers of snow in April..

As far as I'm concerned, March and April are definitely not warm months.. and given the summers of 2011 and 2007, a warm spring is surely the last thing a heat lover wants?

Usually, but in order for my hopecast to come off we'll have to drift into the tropics, so a hot and thundery Summer would be guaranteed as well.

In reality, I agree with summer blizzard - the colder stratosphere will surely lead to a westerly dominated March. I wouldn't mind a good wind storm though!

Edited February 12, 2012 by Alza 2

[Isolated Frost]

My perfect spring would be:

March; begins with a cold northerly blast with the trough sitting in the north sea, sunshine and snow showers across most northern parts and coasts, eventually becoming more settled with high pressure moving in, and a generally warmer and very sunny middle period, before the vortex strengthens for one last blow, and intermittent north-west and west winds provide sunshine and showers, with thunderstorms in places.

April; begins with the continued pattern of cool west and north-west winds, with lots of snow on northern high ground, slowly, the weather becomes more settled, as high pressure moves in from the south-west and eventually, a very much settled end to the month, before retrogression allows one last gasp for arctic northerlies, surprise late snowfall from the north to end the month.

May; starts with the trough easing out and a strong HP cell giving very high temps nationwide, throughout the month however, an atlantic trough attempts to battle the block, only resulting in thunderstorms and heavy rain, before the block fights back. Sunny at times, stormy at others, very warm throughout this battle.

Basically, anything sunny is welcome, and convection in the form of snow showers from the north, hail, rain and snow from the north-west/west and thunderstorms and heavy rain from the south- all with HP and warm sunshine in between. Variety, sunshine, convection and some thunderstorms... Please?

[MP-R]

I'm wondering if a spring like 2006 is on the cards?

I'd love March to begin with the synoptics from 16th-26th December 2010 then a largely unsettled Atlantic spell for the rest of the month to give plenty of rain. April will then see a slowing of the Atlantic with more emphasis on sunshine and showers from the SW and NW with warmer, drier and sunny spells with temperatures passing 21C. May will then be largely on the warm side with thunderstorms and at least one rPm showery spell to give plenty of rain in non-frontal fashion before a proper summer where long periods of dryness won't be a serious problem.

[Summer Sun]

A spring like last year would be just perfect I would not rule out the following,

March

Above average temperatures UK wide,

Above average rain in the North, normal amounts in the south

April

Temperatures close to or just above average UK wide

Above average rain in the North, normal amounts in the south

May

Above average temperatures UK wide

Well below normal rain fall

[feb1991blizzard]

I would like to see a March, April and May all well below average with sleet and snow for many areas.

[Aaron]

I'm wondering if a spring like 2006 is on the cards?

I'd love March to begin with the synoptics from 16th-26th December 2010 then a largely unsettled Atlantic spell for the rest of the month to give plenty of rain. April will then see a slowing of the Atlantic with more emphasis on sunshine and showers from the SW and NW with warmer, drier and sunny spells with temperatures passing 21C. May will then be largely on the warm side with thunderstorms and at least one rPm showery spell to give plenty of rain in non-frontal fashion before a proper summer where long periods of dryness won't be a serious problem.

Didn't many areas get snowfall in March 2006? Well, Leeds did. The following summer was of course fantastic.

[Alex95]

Didn't many areas get snowfall in March 2006? Well, Leeds did. The following summer was of course fantastic.

Yes - I was in Cumbria on the 12th and got 20cm. There was also a little in Newcastle too.

[Ben_Cambs]

Hopefully, any means possible to prevent a hose-pipe ban come the summer!

I'd like a mild, wet spring with a few northerly outbreaks during March and April, and a warm,wet May. If we see a very dry April again, then I'd be pretty convinced these conditions wouldn't be repeated this summer.

[Yellowbelly]

Absolutely with you Ben. Lincs/Cambs and other places in the East need rain this spring and probably this summer that approaches 2007/2008 levels. It hasn't been a wet winter, which following on from last years well documented drought has left water supplies in an increasingly critical state.

[MP-R]

Didn't many areas get snowfall in March 2006? Well, Leeds did. The following summer was of course fantastic.

Yes they did. There were widespread snow showers from the north between 1st-4th then a battleground scenario on the 12th.

[A Winter's Tale]

A spring like last year would be just perfect I would not rule out the following,

March

Above average rain in the North

April

Above average rain in the North

Thank you very much Gavin

[A Winter's Tale]

My Perfect Spring:

March:

1st-10th: Begins with a North Easterly bringing snow showers to much of the north and east with 5-10cm across many parts of Scotland and NE England. Some lovely sunny spells between potent snow showers and very cold nights. Winds the change to more of a northerly with many interesting troughs and systems moving south and sprawling across much of Northern Ireland, Scotland, N Wales and N England resulting in blizzards. Then, we have a frontal snowfall that ends the cold snap but brings a major snow event to much of the UK:

11th-20th: High pressure moves in as the thaw gets going. This results in a fantastic settled spell with lots of sunshine. Initially, sunny and cold with lots of frost but then things should feel slightly warmer and more pleasant. Fantastic variety in weather, initially snow covered hills with cold sunny days at 6C, to a pleasant 10C then 17C with more sunshine.

21st -31st: We then see the Atlantic break in leading to enough rainfall for Spring plants but not excessively with plenty of long, sunny spells in between fronts with the odd cold day thrown in aswell as the warmer one. So basically a taste of summer and winter with the threat of snow and frost at times aswell as warmer, pleasant days.

April:

1st-7th: We return to a cooler period with the Atlantic less in control as we see north-westerly winds. These should bring cool-chilly days with snow on northern high ground and to low levels at times and lovely sunny spell in between.

8th-12th: Following a cool and showery start, we then find ourselves under a southerly airflow bringing some warmer temperatures and lots of sunshine. However thunderstorms will become possible.

13th-17th: High pressure sits over the UK and we get more sunshine, not hot, but pleasant temperatures with the threat of frost in the north.

18th-22nd: High pressure then ends up to our NW allowing for cold northerlies with some real bite. Temperatures plummit with frost by night and some very cold daytime temps over Scotland. The snow spreads south and dumps 5cm across many areas and snow showers across much of Scotland and both west and east coasts give accumilations.

23rd-30th: Cold, sunny but snowy northerly is replaced by a warmer easterly. This allows for warm days with temperatures into 20C or more aswell as loads of sunshine.

May:

1st-12th: Warm, very sunny. Maximum temps of 17-23C and cooling down in evenings/mornings to around 15-18C, some rain or showers at times but never prolonged.

13th -15th: We then have thunderstorms as the heat battles against atlantic.

16th-18th: Cold northerly, bringing snow to low level over Scotland.

19th-31st: Summer arrives as we get lots of long periods of sunshine and warmth in between fronts.

So a Spring full of sunshine, a bit of atlantic weather and cloud, lots of showers, both winter and summer, hot and cold, pleasant and cool. A sunny spring, lots of varities of weather with elements of summer and winter and typical spring weather too. Lovely.

[Aaron]

In my ideal world, winter and snow cover wouldn't end until mid March.. sigh.. if only Britain could be moved 1000 miles east

[summer blizzard]

Strangely both March 2010 and 2011 saw sunny and dry March's with no snow in Leeds (at least that i can remember).

I still think that both Spring and Summer will largely be poor (cooler and wetter than average) however i would not bet against March being warmer than average if the stratosphere continues to cool. In my opinion this summer could be a late one.

[weathergeek]

So does anyone actually know of an official LRF that's been done for spring? Either an expert on here or a blogger or another site?! Would be really interested to read of one that been done using some scientific knowledge and research? Or for some to just tell me its going to be a warm and glorious Spring, lol!

H x

[Costa Del Fal]

Strangely both March 2010 and 2011 saw sunny and dry March's with no snow in Leeds (at least that i can remember).

I still think that both Spring and Summer will largely be poor (cooler and wetter than average) however i would not bet against March being warmer than average if the stratosphere continues to cool. In my opinion this summer could be a late one.

When are we due a decent summer! :lol:

As weathergeek says above any LRF's out yet. Its a shame there id so much focus on Winter and so little for Spring and only a bit more for Summer. I think by now we can certainly have a good stab at early Spring at least. GP maybe could answer this?

Edited February 13, 2012 by Blizzards

[Aaron]

Strangely both March 2010 and 2011 saw sunny and dry March's with no snow in Leeds (at least that i can remember).

I still think that both Spring and Summer will largely be poor (cooler and wetter than average) however i would not bet against March being warmer than average if the stratosphere continues to cool. In my opinion this summer could be a late one.

There was a dusting of snow one morning in March 2010, but otherwise no snow. I'd like to see a proper March snowfall

[ZONE 51]

My Spring LRF 2012 Preview:

Early spring-March

Mid-April

Late-May

• March(early) - Wet and Cold with Low pressure systems moving across from the Atlantic bringing with them snowfall at times, coldest in the East and EA/SE, some frosty/foggy spells as ridges of high pressure replace the weather systems, wintry for many, possibly warming up in the South late March with high pressure quite strong from the s/sw, cold in the North.
  
• April(lmid) - Warmth arriving in the South early month with drier then average, cool/mild in the North with more wetter conditions especially the northwest. mid to the end of this month Southern areas seeing high pressure with warm or very warm and dry conditions, depending on how far North the high pressure moves would mean how far North the nice weather gets and how much the wetter weather gets pushed away North, can't say at this stage how far would ridge North, but its looking dry and warm for the South.
  
• May(late) - Very warm and Mostly Dry month with the Azores high in place, although storms/showers could occur as i expect a warm moist flow from the south at times as deep lows move near by in the Atlantic-and when this situation does develop then flash local storms could occur, although most lows pushing across the far North some might move up from the south as thundery lows, at this stage it is really not possible to predict such set ups, but on a larger scale i see a dry month in terms of widespread rainfall, also i expect the Jetstream pattern to be much more different then last spring(more details in the forecast)
  
• Overall - I am expecting a cold and wintry start to spring, with a drier and warmer 2nd half in the South and more cooler and wetter in the North, it does depend on how far North the high pressure can make it to how warm and dry the North becomes rather then cool and at times wet.
  

• Spring 2012:
  
• Early:Cold wintry start North to South
  
• Mid-Late: warm&dry South/cool&wet North, if high from south ridges north then warmer and dryier in the north, Jet stream pattern would result in changes.
  
• Colder then Average March overall
  
• Drier then Average April in the South
  

ESS

Edited February 13, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Weather-history]

There have been 73 sub 7C Aprils in the CET listings, which is about 20%, or 1 in 5, the last one was 1989, 23 years ago.

I will be staggered if we don't see at least one this decade that is sub 7C and it could very well be this year.

[Summer Sun]

So does anyone actually know of an official LRF that's been done for spring? Either an expert on here or a blogger or another site?! Would be really interested to read of one that been done using some scientific knowledge and research? Or for some to just tell me its going to be a warm and glorious Spring, lol!

H x

Netweather have there LFR for Spring out now

Into Spring - Long Range Forecast - Updated 13th February 2012

After a mixed, often mild first half of Winter February has begun on a colder note, but will this trend continue into the start of Spring?

March

Spring is currently expected to start on a fairly average note, but with the potential for some fairly significant swings in temperature from cold to mild. The air pressure anomaly shows that pressure is expected to be higher than average across much of the country, as well as into Scandinavia, so with the continent still expected to be on the cold side, occasional cold shots from the east are a possibility. With pressure higher than average though, rainfall amounts are expected to be below average in many parts.

April

As we head into April, the current forecast suggests that rainfall will stay close to normal across the bulk of the UK. Temperatures are also anticipated to be close to average, perhaps a little above in some regions.

May

As ever, the further into the forecast we head, the lower confidence is, so this output could well change dramatically but at this stage the striking thing about the forecast for May is the signal for some potentially very wet weather in some parts of the country. Temperatures are currently forecast to be fairly close to average.

l

Pictures ect here - http://www.netweathe...longrange;sess=

Edited February 13, 2012 by Gavin D

[Summer Sun]

The met office's probability maps have updated for February, they cover spring from March to May

850hpa temperature

Precipitation

Pressure

Edited February 13, 2012 by Gavin D

[AutumnMists]

Despite signs of another short burst of wintry stuff this weekend, lets hope the temperatures this week do give a Spring feel to it. Outputs show next week will be similar to this with mild or average temperatures after the more cooler stuff over the weekend.

I'm still going for a much more cooler start to March though (and, as ever for March, mixed) with below average rainfall .. and the prospects of sleet or snow returning ... although as we head through the next month I do expect a gradual trend to milder conditions followed by a typical April.

Edited February 13, 2012 by hedgehog4