Spring 2012

[A Winter's Tale]

So, as we leave winter, what is eveyone hoping for Spring 2012?

A fair-share of snow in March, lots of sun, a lot of varied weather, a sunny but showery April with a northerly and a warm end. And a sunny, warm May with enough rain to avoid a drought and not too hot.

And what other things about Spring is everyone looking forward to seeing again - is it those brighter days, warmer temps, those flowers and lambs or just the fantastic, cheery weather and time

Certainly, I think we are in for a very interesting year in terms of weather! Spring 2011, very warm - can it be the same or will it be the opposite? Summer 2011, cold and wet - surely something better this time around? Autumn 2011, mild and cloudy - has to be better, more sun, more frost, and typical autumn conditions - like 2010 would be good!

Also, for how long and how potent can we expect easterlies to be in March and what's the nature of northerlies and polar westerlies too during March?

[farmer2555]

this winter has been a real let down ive only seen 1 hour of snow flurries and i love snow roll on spring lots of sun and sitting in the garden with a coffee

[damianslaw]

Must say the net weather temp forecast Uk maps for the spring do look a real hotchpotch. A warm blob over n england with colder blobs over scotland and southern england - very odd. Suggest plenty of easterly/southeast airstream bringing colder conditions to the south, but also some colder NE blasts affecting scotland, but wouldn't NE Eng also be affected.. mmm not sure about these maps can't think of what types of synoptics would give such rapid fluctuations on temp across small parts of the country. It suggests a very very mixed spring with very different types of synoptics ruling the roost giving marked temp differences in a small area.

I would be very happy to see a very mixed spring with cold spells interspersed with warmer spells rather than a long mild benign fest, and I don't want summer warmth in April - far too early.

[Bottesford]

Yeah it would be really good to not have a diluted summer in April & September/October like recent years. Hopefully we can grab our hot (well at least warm), dry and sunny stuff during May, June & July (my fav months). August too although I always prefer the best of the weather around the solstice.

[Aaron]

August is always cloudy, especially on my birthday.

[BlueHedgehog074]

So, as we leave winter, what is eveyone hoping for Spring 2012?

A fair-share of snow in March, lots of sun, a lot of varied weather, a sunny but showery April with a northerly and a warm end. And a sunny, warm May with enough rain to avoid a drought and not too hot.

That would be similar to what my ideal Spring, too, but with the odd thunderstorm or two thrown in during May.

And what other things about Spring is everyone looking forward to seeing again - is it those brighter days, warmer temps, those flowers and lambs or just the fantastic, cheery weather and time

It would have to be the longer days, and going for lengthy cycle rides and walks during bright calm mild/warm periods. Also looking forward to seeing everything become green again, with plants and mowed lawns giving off that nice fresh smell that really brings a sense of nostalgia. Almost feels like heaven.

August is always cloudy, especially on my birthday.

We could really do with grabbing hold of a High Pressure system and attach it to the East of the UK using extremely strong super glue so it doesn't go anyhwere, resulting in sunny weather for your birthday. But you never know, the weather may just surprise you on your birthday this year anyway.

Edited February 16, 2012 by Rainbow Snow

[Evening thunder]

One thing I would like this spring is a decent amount of rainfall, so all the plants/trees can grow to their maximum ability and maybe we will get more warm/hot spells this summer.

Last April we removed a bush that had been killed by Decembers low temperatures, and it was very hard to remove with the soil still dry about a foot down!

[Evening thunder]

Not exactly in spring, but could we see 15C+ in some areas next week? it would feel pretty spring like. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120216/12/171/ukmaxtemp.png

[Milhouse]

Thursday next week looks very mild with 10c upper temps grazing the south coast. Could well see 15/16c in some parts in lengthy sunny spells.

[Nick F]

We are way overdue a cold April or at least one that is at least 0.5C below the 1961-90 average. I think the statistical elastic band on this one is well overstretched. I can't see this continuing.

Indeed, though 2008 may have been slightly below average as I recorded 8cm of snowfall in west Kent on 6th April 2008, so certainly was a cold beginning that month.

Recent Aprils have been rather warm though, extraordinarily so in 2007 and 2011.

On another note, I heard on the forecast this evening that 13C was reached in eastern Scotland today?

[Aaron]

16C may be reached next week.. 16C was reached last February too

[weathergeek]

Yes I remember being out walking like it was Spring last Feb - was lovely after all the cold we'd had and by this time I'm always well ready for some sunnier warmer weather!

Also remember the snow on 6th April 2008 because I was trying to walk in it with my crazy 17mth old while heavily pregnant with my second baby (fun!), born just a mth later when it was BAKING!

Gotta love our bizarre contrasts in weather, eh?!x

[A Winter's Tale]

A very interesting Spring coming up!

Will be interesting to see how it compares to 2011 and how notable will it's cold and warm spells be and it's other notable events. And also, it will be great to see longer days of sunshine and daylight, the Spring flowers and other typical Spring weather.

Another chapter in a story of 2012 is about to begin and will it be one for the record books? And like every month, the type of Spring, summer, autumn and other factors could contribute to the type of winter we get next year.

So, what's everyone's thoughts on Spring and are any forecasts that anyone would like to bring to the table?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Indeed, though 2008 may have been slightly below average as I recorded 8cm of snowfall in west Kent on 6th April 2008, so certainly was a cold beginning that month.

Recent Aprils have been rather warm though, extraordinarily so in 2007 and 2011.

On another note, I heard on the forecast this evening that 13C was reached in eastern Scotland today?

April 2008 was very close to both the 1961-90 and 1971-2000 averages, and fractionally below the 1981-2010 average. The cold spell from the 6th-15th (with temperatures not far short of record low values on the 6th) was offset by warmth during the first few days and during the last third of the month as winds switched to a mainly southerly direction.

The Aprils of 1998 and 2000 similarly failed to come in at sub 7C CET despite some notably cold weather in the first half due to frequent southerly winds after midmonth. Negative anomalies (relative to 1961-90) of a degree or more did occur in some north-western districts though, which if reproduced in the CET area would have seen the value sneak in just under 7C.

[A Winter's Tale]

So how cold would a sub 7C CET be for April?

There have been 86 April's were the CET has been at 7C or below. There have been 22 April's colder than December 2011 and 8 colder than January 2012. Coldest April was 4.7C in 1701. Warmest was 11.8C in 2011 that's warmer than 1 June. Average CET is around 8C.

Warmest March is 9.2C, coldest is 1C. It would be interesting to see a Sub 4C CET for March and Sub 7C for April but a warmer one for May.

[summer blizzard]

On the subject of warmth in May or June we are surely due an extremely warm one.

The warmest May on record was 14.9C however the second is just 13.6C so plenty of statistical space although May 2008 matched the record in the first half and finished at 13.1C.

There have i believe been five Junes with a CET of over 17C and the record been above 18C however the last June in this category was 1976.

[karyo]

I'd love to see a really cold March for a change! Especially after our underwhelming winter.

After March I tend to lose my interest in the weather and focus on volcanic and solar activity.

Karyo

[Evening thunder]

GFS 06z has 16C in the south next Thursday, and if it's underestimating max temps by 1-2C like normal if it's sunny weather, maybe 17-18C??

http://cdn.nwstatic....6/ukmaxtemp.png

It is a bit far off of course at t+156 but the models do suggest some very mild weather next week.

Edited February 17, 2012 by Stormmad26

[reef]

On the subject of warmth in May or June we are surely due an extremely warm one.

The warmest May on record was 14.9C however the second is just 13.6C so plenty of statistical space although May 2008 matched the record in the first half and finished at 13.1C.

There have i believe been five Junes with a CET of over 17C and the record been above 18C however the last June in this category was 1976.

The warmest May on record was actually 15.1C, set in 1833. The next warmest was 13.9C in 1848, a massive gap.

I would say we're more overdue a cold May that a warm one. May 2008 was 13.4C, which is 12th warmest but we've only had one below average May in the last 15 years.

Mays over 13C and Junes over 16C are actually pretty rare in the scheme of things.

[Terminal Moraine]

On the subject of warmth in May or June we are surely due an extremely warm one.

The warmest May on record was 14.9C however the second is just 13.6C so plenty of statistical space although May 2008 matched the record in the first half and finished at 13.1C.

There have i believe been five Junes with a CET of over 17C and the record been above 18C however the last June in this category was 1976.

I don't know about nationally but here we're long overdue a cold May and a cold June. The last May with a mean temp' below the 1971-2000 average was 1996 and the last June was 1999.

September is almost as bad with just one below average month since 1995.

[summer blizzard]

I don't know about nationally but here we're long overdue a cold May and a cold June. The last May with a mean temp' below the 1971-2000 average was 1996 and the last June was 1999.

September is almost as bad with just one below average month since 1995.

We did get 2005 which bang on average for May and also June 2011 was 0.3C below average.

[Summer Sun]

Looks like later next week could be very mild my predicitions for March was above average temperatures and i'm sticking to it, next week its bye bye winter and hello spring.

[summer blizzard]

The warmest May on record was actually 15.1C, set in 1833. The next warmest was 13.9C in 1848, a massive gap.

I would say we're more overdue a cold May that a warm one. May 2008 was 13.4C, which is 12th warmest but we've only had one below average May in the last 15 years.

Mays over 13C and Junes over 16C are actually pretty rare in the scheme of things.

Thanks, was recalling the figures from memory rather than looking which is why they are a little off.

While well above average months are indeed rare and we are overdue a cold one in this warming phase of climate we have seen within the past decade January, February, April, July, September, October and November all record CET values of at least 2.5C above the 1971-2000 average.

[Aaron]

I don't know about nationally but here we're long overdue a cold May and a cold June. The last May with a mean temp' below the 1971-2000 average was 1996 and the last June was 1999.

September is almost as bad with just one below average month since 1995.

We're long overdue a cold, snowy spring and a decent summer. It looks like spring will start next week so be prepared for the coolest summer for another 20 years!

Edited February 17, 2012 by Aaron

[A Winter's Tale]

Looks like later next week could be very mild my predicitions for March was above average temperatures and i'm sticking to it, next week its bye bye winter and hello spring.

Spring isn't summer and sun, and Spring isn't winter and snow. It's the transition between both and that means a whole load of fantastic weather types but yes I'm looking forward to seeing Spring weather again, the first heat and yes I'm still looking out for Spring snowfalls.