Spring 2012

[Cheshire Freeze]

It would be just typical that when parts of the country are in need of rain we get a Spring like last year followed by a hot and dry summer just when many wouldn't want it, I wouldn't bet against it happening.

I would, based purely on the fact that it would be somewhat unprecedented for a spell of dry weather which we have been in for the past 3 years to continue much longer. Based on the law of averages alone would make me bet against a dry summer, let alone when you throw in long range models predicting blocking to centre itself over or around Greenland. That says southerly jet and cut off lows to me, along with plenty of rain.

Also this set up would be very convenient as the south would see the most rain relative to more northern areas......which is what would be needed to restore balance; of course which is what our climate tends to do over a period of time.

Edited February 24, 2012 by CreweCold

[Milhouse]

I see the warm, dry Spring - cool wet Summer fears are appearing already. Its not even March yet so theres plenty of time for a change to a wetter pattern, if thats what will raise peoples expectations for the coming summer. Although i still dont see why we cant get both a dry warm Spring followed by a dry warm Summer. It has happened before.

[Aaron]

But we do not want a dry summer, a warm summer yes but a dry summer no, it's like snow, in a way I'm glad we avoided it this year as it means the economy didn't come under stress like it did in December 2010. A drought is a scary thought, especially in the UK's most populated areas.

Edited February 24, 2012 by Aaron

[Alex95]

Does anyone know how much, if any, snow fell across the south in April 1966? Newcastle and Durham both got 30cm, which is incredible for mid April, but I can't find any data for the rest of the UK. I'm confident I'll see lying snow in March or April this year as its been a while since I have, and most Springs actually see snow at some point, and I don't think I've seen significant snow in March/April since 2006 in this location which is quite unusual in itself.

Edited February 24, 2012 by Alza 2

[Milhouse]

But we do not want a dry summer, a warm summer yes but a dry summer no, it's like snow, in a way I'm glad we avoided it this year as it means the economy didn't come under stress like it did in December 2010. A drought is a scary thought, especially in the UK's most populated areas.

Ideally we would have the best of both worlds by getting enough rain to avoid a serious drought developing, but at the same time getting a decent summer thats better than the mediocre efforts of the last 5 years. So perhaps i wouldnt want a continuously very dry summer. Just one with several dry and very warm periods punctuated by short spells of heavy rain.

[Thundery wintry showers]

A strong ridge from the Azores High is the safest bet for a generally dry, settled summer in central and southern areas, although temperatures and sunshine amounts are sensitive to how far north the high ridges and how strong the jet is on its northern flank (the northern flanks of Azores ridges are often dry but relatively cool and cloudy, while areas covered by the ridges tend to be sunny and warm).

However if it's heat and/or thunderstorms that you're after then paradoxically you need the Azores High to stay well away to the south-west, with a persistent Bermuda high/Atlantic trough/Euro high pattern. If the Atlantic trough sits well out to the west the weather may end up exceptionally dry and sunny as well as hot (e.g. late June/early July 1976, August 1995) whereas if the trough is fairly close by it will spawn some thundery outbreaks as in the Julys of 1994/1995/2006, while still permitting high sunshine totals. With the latter setup there is always the chance of the jet pepping up sending the Atlantic trough eastwards and leaving us fully exposed to Atlantic systems, but then again the "Azores High ridge" setup can just as easily lead to the same thing if the ridge retreats south-westwards and Atlantic systems come crashing through- check out the charts around late June/early July 1988 to find a stark example of this.

Re. April 1966, it had two major snow events, one across northern England on the 2nd/3rd, and another midmonth from a persistent easterly flow (the "easterly with a northerly source" type of regime which can deliver snowfalls well into spring) with a max of just 3.9C on the 14th at Durham. There must have been some easterlies of the dry cloudy variety too though as sunshine totals during April 1966 were well below normal in most eastern areas. The 60s/70s contained a large number of Aprils with notable snowfalls- 1968, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1978, while 1979 of course had very wintry spells in March and May.

[Isolated Frost]

I assume when you say 'we' aaron you mean only yourself. I'm hoping for a hot, dry summer and majority of spring, with any precip in spring from showery outbreaks, and in summer, especially in the south east, some thundery outbreaks.

[Eugene]

It would be just typical that when parts of the country are in need of rain we get a Spring like last year followed by a hot and dry summer just when many wouldn't want it, I wouldn't bet against it happening.

Wow you dont want much do you, an incredibly warm April followed by a hot dry summer, sorry but they rarely both go in hand, you really should want a cool spring this year so not to waste our quota of good synoptics come the summer, i know its a mild pattern we are in now but that doesnt mean it will last forever(i know you would like that but how boring would that be , the weather changes just like most people moods on here.

[damianslaw]

Is there a correlation between warm Aprils and cool/average summers. The three warmest Aprils of 1987, 2007 and 2011 were all followed by average/cool summers. However, April 03 was very mild and there followed a very warm summer.

Also is there a correlation between cool Aprils and warm summers. The last proper chilly April was way back in 1989 and it was followed by a notably warm April.

April 94 was quite cool I think and there followed a decent warm April.

I know the weather doesn't follow statistical quirks etc.. but I am always wary when we see early summer warmth in April - it does seem to have been a bad omen in recent times. Much better to see early spring warmth in May - bodes much better for summer I say!

My thinking on Spring is for a progressively wet season - good news for the drought stricken parts of the country. Don't foresee any particular lengthy early summer warmth neither with a cold mid March - mid April period and therefore a cold easter. May could be a wet one this year! unfortunately.. as it is my favourite month with slow moving systems tracking south across the country with heights remaining strong to our NE -not an unusual synoptic for May.

Average season temp wise.

[johnholmes]

I sound like a worn out record but it has to be said yet again.

No one, singular or centre has ever found any statistical links between one month and any subsequent month/season that I am aware of.

[Robbie Garrett]

Early spring I am hoping, with a washout April/May and then a Blazing June/July and possibly August.

[Thundery wintry showers]

A spell of unusually warm dry sunny weather in the spring is likely to be followed by a correction at some point with a wetter cloudier spell, but while the wetter cloudier spell can persist for much of the summer (e.g. 2007, 2011) it can also set in briefly during May and/or June before petering out again (e.g. 1990). On rare occasions it can remain unusually dry during spring and summer, as happened in 1893, and southern areas managed it in 1976. The 1995 spring quarter, while well-remembered for its sharp temperature fluctuations, was also drier and sunnier than average from the Scottish Lowlands southwards with temperatures fractionally up on the 1961-90 average (mainly thanks to the warmest first half of April since 1945), and this led into the famous summer drought, with wet weather not setting in until early September. Other hot summers to be preceded by generally warmer, drier and sunnier than average Aprils include 1955 and 1984.

April 2003 was also followed by a hot summer although in many parts of the country summer 2003 was not as exceptional rainfall or sunshine wise as it was temperature wise.

However the impending drought is a much stronger argument for wishing for wet spells at some point during the spring.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

Just looking at the QBO data and from where we were in January it seems as if the -QBO could peak anytime between now and August.

[summer blizzard]

To try and find which QBO and MEI state was best for hot spring and summer months (2C above the 1981-2010 average) i looked at the data...

March

1957

April

2007

2011

May

N/A

June

1976

July

1976

1983

2006

August

1975

1997

1995

1957: -QBO - WEAKENING

1975: +QBO - STRENGTHENING

1976**: +QBO/-QBO - WEAKENING/

1983: +0.3 - WEAKENING

1995: +1.3 - WEAKENING

1997: +1.5 - WEAKENING

2006: +1.4 - STRENGTHENING

2007: -0.4 - STRENGTHENING

2011: +0.9 - STRENGTHENING

1957: +0.1 - STRENGTHENING EL NINO

1975: -1.7 - SRENGTHENING LA NINA

1976**: +0.3/+0.6 - STRENGTHENING EL NINO

1983: +1.7 - WEAKENING EL NINO

1995: -0.2 - STRENGTHENING LA NINA

1997: +3.0 - STRENGTHENING EL NINO

2006: +0.6 - STRENGTHENING EL NINO

2007: -0.1 - NEUTRAL

2011: -1.5 - WEAKENING LA NINA

Of the ten analogue years (because 1976 occurs in June and July) we see that 60% of these months occurred in +mei conditions and only one occurred with declining MEI values. In other words 90% of these CET values occurred in months which saw weakening -mei figures or strengthening +mei figures. For the QBO we see that 70% of these months occurred with +QBO values and that only two occurred with declining QBO values.

The message here is that we need our current -mei/-qbo picture to start weakening soon.

[Summer Sun]

If only these CFS charts proved correct

[Scorcher]

Fingers crossed that they are correct Gavin!

[Aaron]

Lol, they're forecasting all the way to next winter. Chocolate tea pot anyone?

Edited February 25, 2012 by Aaron

[The PIT]

April 2003 and 2004 were warm aprils followed by a warm summer as was 1991 I think John H is correct here.

[Aaron]

I don't remember April 2003 or 2004 being anything special, so I guess it wasn't that good. Summer of 2003 was not so special away from the SE either. Reached 31.8c one day but that has been matched since.

Edited February 25, 2012 by Aaron

[Weather-history]

I sound like a worn out record but it has to be said yet again.

No one, singular or centre has ever found any statistical links between one month and any subsequent month/season that I am aware of.

John

Every time you have said this I pointed out there appears to be some kind of link between a severe winter (a CEt of less than 2C) and the following summer not being particularly on the warm side. 1947 was a very notable exception.

[johnholmes]

True enough but its the exception not the rule-hence my making the point I do each time. One link does not a summer make-to misquote a phrase. I suspect if anyone applied a statistical test on that idea Kevin it would be proved not to have any substance.

I only wish my brain would allow me to use the Statistics I did at Uni to do the necessary tests that are needed to prove or disprove any of these suggestion-sadly it won't.

Hence why I asked for any of the statisticians on here to come forward. If anyone can prove a theory is statistically correct then I will be happy to accept it as proven-not until then I'm afraid.

[Weather-history]

John

Every time you have said this I pointed out there appears to be some kind of link between a severe winter (a CEt of less than 2C) and the following summer not being particularly on the warm side. 1947 was a very notable exception.

Another interesting one that I have noticed is the very warm June and following below average December.

The CET average for the following December after a June with a CET of greater than 16.0C is believe it or not 3.1C

[Scorcher]

I don't remember April 2003 or 2004 being anything special, so I guess it wasn't that good. Summer of 2003 was not so special away from the SE either. Reached 31.8c one day but that has been matched since.

That mid-April heatwave in 2003 was one of the most memorable events in April in recent years. It was another very sunny month as well. Also if summer 2003 wasn't special I don't know what you deem as being a good summer. Yes there have been better but most people would love a summer like 2003 this year.

[Aaron]

That mid-April heatwave in 2003 was one of the most memorable events in April in recent years. It was another very sunny month as well. Also if summer 2003 wasn't special I don't know what you deem as being a good summer. Yes there have been better but most people would love a summer like 2003 this year.

August 2003 was just a bit above average here.. July 2006 was a hot summer, 1995 was, 2003 for most places was not hot.

BTW I like warm temperatures not hot, so 2003 would do me, but a 2006 repeat I would not like

Edited February 25, 2012 by Aaron

[johnholmes]

For here - April 2003 had a spell 13-18th with the mean 5C above the average

June, July and August were all between 1.9C to 2.4C above the average.