Spring 2012

[Aaron]

w-what is this? Is it.. no.. it can't be.. the sun? It really is, it's actually shining!!!

Feels lovely today.. finally, over a week of cloudy skies.

[Milhouse]

Just been for a bike ride and its absolutely beautiful with next to no wind at all. I've seen bees and ladybirds already so much earlier than in previous years. The new spring growth is fast emerging too.

[Costa Del Fal]

A lovely Spring day but a continuation on what has been a mostly sunny spell here. A couple of days have been cloudy but otherwise its been very mild or warm with lots of sunshine here over the last week or so.

[Upgrade]

what would be amazing this year would to be have a decent August.........2003 was the last decent one!

[Aaron]

August 2003 was not decent, it was 'exceptional'..

[summer blizzard]

How's the QBO data looking SB?

It would be nice to finally break May or Junes record which has been standing a long time!

-QBO and strengthening, moderate amplitude.

QBO analogues suggest that the peak will occur between February and July, for a hot month then we want it weakening as rapidly as possible.

[Alex]

August 2003 was not decent, it was 'exceptional'..

20 uppers across the southeast and 38.5c is exceptional for an island in the Atlantic but I get the feeling we will have a year that challenges this especially if synoptics are perfect and if global warming is true!

-QBO and strengthening, moderate amplitude.

QBO analogues suggest that the peak will occur between February and July, for a hot month then we want it weakening as rapidly as possible.

Thanks SB, let's hope we don't peak too soon then, then a strong weakening picture would be good coupled with a weak la Nina, conditions should be more favourable.

Edited March 2, 2012 by Alex

[summer blizzard]

20 uppers across the southeast and 38.5c is exceptional for an island in the Atlantic but I get the feeling we will have a year that challenges this especially if synoptics are perfect and if global warming is true!

Thanks SB, let's hope we don't peak too soon then, then a strong weakening picture would be good coupled with a weak la Nina, conditions should be more favourable.

The -MEI conditions pretty much mean a right off anyway for a hot month but there is always the chance of La Nina collapsing.

[Alex95]

August 2003 was not decent, it was 'exceptional'..

*In France and Kent.

[Weather-history]

-MEI .

What is MEI?

[Eugene]

lovely Spring day but a continuation on what has been a mostly sunny spell here. A couple of days have been cloudy but otherwise its been very mild or warm with lots of sunshine here over the last week or so.

I only saw any prolonged sunshine on thursday afternoon this week, yesterday i was out all day walking in the north cotswolds(warwickshire/oxfordshire border area) and the fog lasted all day in the hilly landscapes around there, was in one nice village in a valley where they didnt see any sun,had a pint and there was nobody sitting in the garden area, it was dead, everybody walking around the village in coats, the wind started to pick up in the early evening and i'm glad i had a coat on as it felt chilly.

[Milhouse]

I've been quite pleased with sunshine amounts during the past few weeks. There have been dull mild days but there have also been days that have seen several hours of decent sunshine. On the 23rd February when 19c was recorded in the Midlands there were 6 hours of sunshine over a wide area and nearer 9 hours in East Anglia. And for me personally i dont mind the cloudy, dull days so much when its mild. Much better than cold and cloudy.

[Costa Del Fal]

I only saw any prolonged sunshine on thursday afternoon this week, yesterday i was out all day walking in the north cotswolds(warwickshire/oxfordshire border area) and the fog lasted all day in the hilly landscapes around there, was in one nice village in a valley where they didnt see any sun,had a pint and there was nobody sitting in the garden area, it was dead, everybody walking around the village in coats, the wind started to pick up in the early evening and i'm glad i had a coat on as it felt chilly.

You have visited the wrong places this week then. :lol:

Monday was dull and last Sunday I think was rather cloudy. Other than that lots of sunshine to be had here this week. Fabulous for much of the time.

[Aaron]

Sad to see any prospect of heavy rain vanish here. The last time I got a proper deluge (say 20mm or more in 24 hours or less) was probably November 2009. If I remember correctly parts of southern England got over 100mm of rain in individual summer months last year, with many places getting over 25mm of rain in less then 24 hours..

Edited March 3, 2012 by Aaron

[Evening thunder]

Really? we usually have several events a year where 20mm+ falls in 24 hours down here.. Last year had about 4 (though there may have been a couple more with the total split each side of midnight) which is less than the previous few years.

[MP-R]

Still managed to get 5 20mm+ days even last year and 8 in 2010.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I don't like overcast mild days with thick stratus/stratocumulus (though I'm alright with such days in moderation if the cloud formations are interesting). Despite this, I do prefer it to overcast cold weather- my least favourite March of the last 20 years was that of 1996 when an east to south-easterly regime brought 15 consecutive sunless days to the Tyne and Wear/Durham area from the 11th-25th, with temperatures around 3 to 6C by day.

We don't look like getting another March 1996 this time around but nor do we look like getting a particularly varied/eventful March after this weekend's episode. High pressure to the south of Britain and westerlies on its northern flank is a difficult setup to shift and has also dominated many recent Marches.

[Lewis]

Seems like it's getting to that time of the year again where it's a personal battle between some members based on what weather preference either wants, we've had the battle of the Atlantic, battle of the snow, battle of the cold zonality, and now it's the battle of High Pressure.

In meteorological terms we are entering spring, so we will start to see weather patterns slowly changing to what we would expect at this time of the seasons, it does not mean that we won't see any colder weather, and because some people post about very mild temperatures, you only have to look at the charts to know that it's going to be around average, and people get excited about the warmer weather, we all have our weather preference at the end of the day, mine's snow, severe gales and thunderstorms, I hate summer/blazing temps without thunderstorms as it's boring weather, but I don't mind an ice cold fosters or stella in the beer garden in it .

I made a huge mistake last year on these boards by looking for milder weather, and I became obsessed when models where showing something warmer, without thinking about the other thousand or so members preference, sometimes it can be amazingly obvious and become a nuisance to other members, and it's surprising how such posts like I did last year can become so dictating and really change the general mood/theme of the thread.

My new rule is the weather will do what it wants to do

Hope I don't sound like I'm coming across like a bafoon.

Edited March 4, 2012 by reef
Thought this post might be better in this thread

[Eugene]

lol how anybody can say ECM 00Z OP is the same as GFS 00Z OP is beyond me.

Anyways UKMO T+144 hrs looks very similar to ECM 00Z OP at the same timeframe, also BOM does also, some perturbations similar too with this one of the best for cold weather fans.

http://modeles.meteo...s-8-1-240.png?0

So for coldies look for the high building as far northeastwards as possible, i think we could be looking at high heights to our northeast and the runs will come into line with each other the further into this week we go

Edited March 5, 2012 by Eugene

[Eugene]

GFS 06Z ensembles showing varying different solutions for the weekend some flattening the high or some bringing a cooler flow from the NW but HP near us, this weekend isnt nailed yet, more runs needed.

[summer blizzard]

You are all getting far too giddy for cold in my opinion.

All models show high pressure rooling the roost and none show any -5C uppers (GFS even keeps the high east) so it is more likely in my opinion that we will see spring warmth rather than more than a frost.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Indeed, after a polar maritime incursion on Wednesday and a cloudy mild interlude on Thursday-Friday, the outlook for next weekend onwards has high pressure extending north-westwards. I would like to think we'd get plenty of warm sunshine and clear chilly nights from this, but the GFS cloud cover projections suggest that it could well be quite a cloudy high for some.

[Eugene]

It would be good if instead of some certain somebody just posting ensemble charts showing a line above the average line with a few smug smilies at the end( which does nothing to show new members anything about the complexities of anticyclones in early to mid March), to discuss different possibilities of conditions under HP, ie will it be a cloudy high will it be a clear at night cold high with fog slow to clear to leave mild afternoons.

HP doesnt mean that the weather will automatically mean warm clear blue skies by day even in mid March it isnt May yet so even if ensembles show above average 850's doesnt mean a cool undercut is not possible.

[Milhouse]

The latest BBC forecast showed a trailing front stuck over the UK on Friday and Saturday but it was becoming increasingly streched by HP positioning itself over the UK. I suspect Sunday will see decent sunny breaks for most but Saturday will see a lot of cloud thanks to the decaying front.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I agree, it looks cloudy for most up until Saturday but from Sunday onwards we should start to see sunny breaks develop widely. Early next week looks likely to be warm and sunny for most with the moist Atlantic regime replaced by a dry continental one.