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South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted (edited)

Laura tobin has a little video of the coming setup into sunday/monday http://www.bbc.co.uk.../feeds/16773466

Talk of warm fronts hitting cold or some thing like that to be honest i found it hard to concentrate on forecast! :wub:

Edited by mullender83
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dryjoy Newbie

dryjoy

Posted
  • Location: Winterborne Kingston, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Cold & Snow
  • Location: Winterborne Kingston, Dorset
Posted

The current weather warning is right on the edge of where I am. Nailbiting.

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Duane S. Veteran

Duane S.

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
Posted

I see the south coastal strip appears to miss out as usual, but we might get lucky.

Good to see a fellow Weymouthite on board. More likely to be sleety for us down here in the tropics when this (or even 'if this') warm front arrives/passes over/stalls etc etc. However, there would be an optimum setup that would bring us snow as well as it runs over the PC air heading the other way. It must be an absolute nightmare for the METO to get a handle on. Nowcasting will be the order of the day (night) tomorrow going into Monday!

This is as good an oulook for us for potential snow over the next few weeks as I have seen for years. It's very 80's esque. Looks interesting going through next week towards the weekend. We ideally need to see a small portion of southerly in the easterly flow for us, then watch the snow showers pack in as the temperature difference between warmish SSTs and potentially cold uppers create loads of lovely convection!

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Wynn D Woo Rising Star

Wynn D Woo

Posted
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)
Posted

This could be a really good event coming up....if you are 150m+ ASL, I suspect us lower lying members will likely only get rain/sleet but higher ground could get quite a fair bit.

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

12z is just starting to roll out... fingers arms and legs crossed! ;)

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted (edited)

Huge upgrade for Sw GfS says Snow for all tomorrow afternoon .

Are you sure?

Looks to me to be taking its time to move east on 12 so far with ppn only starting to reach bristol area by 9pm? 850's looking good though so far

PPn looking slightly heavier though but that -4c line is awfuly close monday morning so could be a snow to rain event?

Edited by mullender83
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lfcdude Accomplished

lfcdude

Posted
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
Posted

Hi currenty my pc is broke wont have a new one for a week, so guttid i wont be able to radar watch this event, But it looking promising, and hope for the best, but we all know with snow its always nowcast, how far west the ppn makes no one really knows, fingures crosed.

P,s i wish laura tobin would do points west with ian :)

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snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted

Its a downgrade its going to be sleet now

Yes it brought the warm front in during tomorrow evening. Arh well Wales/Bristol still looking ok at some point

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted (edited)

Yes it brought the warm front in during tomorrow evening. Arh well Wales/Bristol still looking ok at some point

It looks to me like snow turning to sleet then rain mid day monday before it starts to fizzle out. still won't know for sure until the event as a 20 miles westwards shift would leave us with a mainly snow event away from coasts IMO :good:

I could live with that as long as it didnt wash it all away!

GFS may be underestimating the block though and it could be further west anyway?

Edited by mullender83
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snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted

It looks to me like snow turning to sleet then rain mid day monday before it starts to fizzle out. still won't know for sure until the event as a 20 miles westwards shift would leave us with a mainly snow event away from coasts IMO :good:

I could live with that as long as it didnt wash it all away!

Yes , in the past GFS has often been known to over do warm sectors right down to +0
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Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted

Latest NAE shows it as mainly a high ground affair now, could all change by tomorrow though, who knows.

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SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted

Seems like its an upgrade for cold longer term on the model thread, if we can get the snow tomorrow/Monday then it could stick around for a while.

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Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted

Seems like its an upgrade for cold longer term on the model thread, if we can get the snow tomorrow/Monday then it could stick around for a while.

Cerainly a much better 12z gfs, high further west, cold further west as well and I read the meto precip charts show the warm front not getting as far east, i.e into the central southern england so could be good for our region if we get enough of an undercut of colder air from the east it might not just be snow on high ground.

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

Seems like its an upgrade for cold longer term on the model thread, if we can get the snow tomorrow/Monday then it could stick around for a while.

This is what I am hoping for! We may get a temporary thaw if the warmer 850's move briefly over us monday afternoon but if we managed to get some laying snow then once that easterly kicks in it would last for a week+ maybe... :air_kiss:

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SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted

It does look bitter on the 12oz, -10 850's over our part of the world Wednesday Thursday next week.

I think we are at the point now where it's a case of waiting to see what fall out of the sky, but I must say our chances are greatly improved tonight.

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Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted (edited)

UKMO very similar to GFS at 60hrs

http://www.meteociel...60-21.GIF?28-17

Edit : Later meto charts not so good, could be a sinker which explains the met 15 dayer outlook which does mention the possibility of mild air getting back in.

Edited by Smartie
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SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted

Sub zero days according to the GFS 12z next Friday into the weekend, with night time temps down to -6-8c

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

I think I've conceeded defeat in seeing snow this weekend now! It looks increasingly likely to be a high ground affair only!

However, as next week progresses, the days will get colder so at least we have some more potential at the end of next week maybe!

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SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted

I don't know why your giving up mate, we have a very real chance of seeing snow. If you were living in Cornwall, maybe I could understand, but Bristol has, & still is in a favourable place to see snow.

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