Yorkshire And Lincolnshire Regional Discussion Thread

[syncmaster]

will it make it over 2 winterton !!!!

[PMPhotography]

Unbelievable watching all the showers stalling about 10 miles off the coast! We've had the odd flurry out of it but nothing major.

I'm absolutely amazed at the GFS 12z. each run just seems to keep upgrading for Saturday night.

Precip amounts aswell as the amount of time the front is over us just keeps getting better, not to mention the temp now not set to rise above 1C on Monday keeping all the lovely snow cover!

Will it actually end up like this? ..... I can hope

[Sara1988]

so i know nothing can be said with being 100% sure, but what is the snow chances looking like for south yorkshire, at the moment?? soooo wish i could read the models and charts and stuff, then i would not need to ask lol,

[summer blizzard]

GFS12z totally scraps the mild incursion with temperatures around 0C all week which is great.

As for Saturdays event it goes for a 9 hour all snow event with roughly 10cm from the precipitation rates. The ground is already frozen so it should be good.

In regards to the event i expect the BBC to upgrade as while south and east would usually be best here (we are more or less the centre of the UK), the front is occluding which will mean that the highest precipitation totals will be closer to us.

Could be very good for south and west Yorkshire above 100 meters but all locations should see snow.

[Craigers]

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVK89.png

Wow!!!!!!!!!! Faxchart shows the front stalling over yorkshire!!!! Massive upgrade

[joggs]

GFS12z totally scraps the mild incursion with temperatures around 0C all week which is great.

As for Saturdays event it goes for a 9 hour all snow event with roughly 10cm from the precipitation rates. The ground is already frozen so it should be good.

In regards to the event i expect the BBC to upgrade as while south and east would usually be best here (we are more or less the centre of the UK), the front is occluding which will mean that the highest precipitation totals will be closer to us.

Could be very good for south and west Yorkshire above 100 meters but all locations should see snow.

Yeh agreed SB. Ive got a nagging feeling the fronts gonna stall closer to us due to models underestimating block and the sheer cold this side of the pennines! Iremember back in 80s and we had a few instances like this Do so not want r fellow weather nuts in s/se to prosper If it looks like the fronts gonna go by us , ALL INHALE FACING EAST :lol:

[Harsh Climate]

Just posted this in the model thread, it explains why I think we are currently on coarse to see the most snow saturday/sunday

I disagree look where the brightest colours are. The precipitation will be heaviest over yorkshire and north western parts of the midlands, this is where most of the snow will fall, judging on the latest output. Just east of the area that misses out, only getting wet snow/sleet will be a narowish zone north to south (upto about 20 miles east) that get the real intense snowfall. As it's amongst the abbundance of moisture being driven but is just on the right side of cold (-4/-5 uppers should do it.)

As the front pushes south east it will weaken as it's being driven straight into our high and the feed of moisture from the atlantic will be cut off as pressure begins to rise again on sunday.

The latest (72h) Fax charts highlights this perfectly, look how the front towards the high pressure just dies whereas further north, the front isn't dying as it still has the force and moisture feed of the atlantic behind it..

.

From this I would expect East Yorkshire, north east england to get the most snow on sunday. Sorry but on this latest output it isn't great for you south of the midlands.. But as ever subject to change

Edited February 2, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[Wintrywooz]

i really dont get it from reading the model discussions it says lincs wont be getting much could anyone clarify for me if im in for a chance as im a few miles from Louth

thanks

[Richard Lake]

Moderate snowfall here earlier for about half an hour so, everywhere is white now. Still unmeasurable HA, but hopefully will keep the temperatures down this evening. Haven't had a frost here for more four days or more.

[ITSY]

As things stand, Leeds COULD do very well then it would seem. The higher (and more East) you are in the NE the better presumably. I'm meant to be going out on Saturday night, gonna have to play it by ear/sight by the looks of things! If things seem the same this time tomorrow then i'll have more confidence!

[Harsh Climate]

This is where I am currently expecting the heaviest falls of snow saturday/sunday

In the red zone I'm expecting widely 7-15cm. (Due to the marginalty of this situation heaviest accumulations will be restricted to above 100m)

In the orange zone 5-10cm. (Down to sea Level)

In the Yellow zone 1-5cm. (Down to sea Level)

I expect that narrow red strip to get the heaviest accumulations due to an abundance of moisture pushing in from the north west and marginal uppers, this will only aid precipitation and I would expect to see some locally huge flakes associated with snowfall at marginal temperatures (could be some good hourly snow rates ).

The orange zone should also see some intense periods of snow, less in the north east at first but as the front backs west on sunday and grinds to a halt, this area should be set for a good period of snow. With long periods of moderate snow in the linconshire area saturday/sunday.

The western part of the yellow zone will probably be too marginal for the highest totals of snow, the wet nature of it should restrict snow totals (But a shift west in the charts again could very well change this ; ).) And in the southern part of this zone I think the front should be weakening with mainly light perhaps moderate at times accumulations, so not expecting too much here.

Sorry about my map been a bit sketchy, was the only map I could find and had to use paint.

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[sparky1972]

i really dont get it from reading the model discussions it says lincs wont be getting much could anyone clarify for me if im in for a chance as im a few miles from Louth

thanks

good evening, i have the feeling we are going to miss out down here, i am due to go to gloustershire on saturday then back home to sth lincs sunday morning but cant find a forecast that gives me any clue as to weather we get rain, snow or nothing at all, sorry, harsh i have just seen your map, best clue i have had, might do the trip to glous and back again on saturday Edited February 2, 2012 by sparky1972

[blizzard81]

This is where I am currently expecting the heaviest falls of snow saturday/sunday

In the red zone I'm expecting widely 7-15cm. (Due to the marginalty of this situation heaviest accumulations will be restricted to above 100m)

In the orange zone 5-10cm. (Down to sea Level)

In the Yellow zone 1-5cm. (Down to sea Level)

I expect that narrow red strip to get the heaviest accumulations due to an abundance of moisture pushing in from the north west and marginal uppers, this will only aid precipitation and I would expect to see some locally huge flakes associated with snowfall at marginal temperatures (could be some good hourly snow rates ).

The orange zone should also see some intense periods of snow, less in the north east at first but as the front backs west on sunday and grinds to a halt, this area should be set for a good period of snow. With long periods of moderate snow in the linconshire area saturday/sunday.

The western part of the yellow zone will probably be too marginal for the highest totals of snow, the wet nature of it should restrict snow totals (But a shift west in the charts again could very well change this ; ).) And in the southern part of this zone I think the front should be weakening with mainly light perhaps moderate at times accumulations, so not expecting too much here.

Sorry about my map been a bit sketchy, was the only map I could find and had to use paint.

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Don't look at the bbc 5 dayers then, very dissapointing Are these based on the ukmo 12hrs output? Was expecting much better.

[Aaron]

BBC 5 days are automated rubbish...

[blizzard81]

BBC 5 days are automated rubbish...

Thanks for the reply. Yes I have heard other people mention this but I thought it was based on the ukmo 12z raw output.

Do you know if that is the case?

[Craigers]

This is where I am currently expecting the heaviest falls of snow saturday/sunday

In the red zone I'm expecting widely 7-15cm. (Due to the marginalty of this situation heaviest accumulations will be restricted to above 100m)

In the orange zone 5-10cm. (Down to sea Level)

In the Yellow zone 1-5cm. (Down to sea Level)

I expect that narrow red strip to get the heaviest accumulations due to an abundance of moisture pushing in from the north west and marginal uppers, this will only aid precipitation and I would expect to see some locally huge flakes associated with snowfall at marginal temperatures (could be some good hourly snow rates ).

The orange zone should also see some intense periods of snow, less in the north east at first but as the front backs west on sunday and grinds to a halt, this area should be set for a good period of snow. With long periods of moderate snow in the linconshire area saturday/sunday.

The western part of the yellow zone will probably be too marginal for the highest totals of snow, the wet nature of it should restrict snow totals (But a shift west in the charts again could very well change this ; ).) And in the southern part of this zone I think the front should be weakening with mainly light perhaps moderate at times accumulations, so not expecting too much here.

Sorry about my map been a bit sketchy, was the only map I could find and had to use paint.

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Heaviest will be the spine of yorkshire (york southwards)

[ITSY]

Latest update from Michael Fish suggests that the worst affected areas will be East Anglia and the South East, with little or no mention of anything too significant for us! :S

[Harsh Climate]

Don't look at the bbc 5 dayers then, very dissapointing Are these based on the ukmo 12hrs output? Was expecting much better.

Yes it's based on latest model output, fax charts and knowledge of these scenario's. Obviously by tomorrow the main risk area could be somewhere else

[blizzard81]

Latest update from Michael Fish suggests that the worst affected areas will be East Anglia and the South East, with little or no mention of anything too significant for us! :S

And which model is he using??

[sparky1972]

well i guess we will see what the overnight model output shows in the morning, gut feeling says this will be disappointing from a imby perspective.

[Harsh Climate]

Latest update from Michael Fish suggests that the worst affected areas will be East Anglia and the South East, with little or no mention of anything too significant for us! :S

To be honest I wouldn't worry about that, it wouldn't be the first time he has been wrong

[blizzard81]

Yes it's based on latest model output, fax charts and knowledge of these scenario's. Obviously by tomorrow the main risk area could be somewhere else

Sorry, I meant are the bbc 5 dayers based on the ukmo 12z?

To be honest I wouldn't worry about that, it wouldn't be the first time he has been wrong

Ha ha, classic!!!

[Harsh Climate]

Sorry, I meant are the bbc 5 dayers based on the ukmo 12z?

I'm not shaw but I really would take them with a pinch of salt. Didn't they have most of us down for light snow on tuesday?

Edited February 2, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[ITSY]

Lets see what the next run does tonight - if it keeps up the potential on the 18Z and overnight into tomorrow then i'll be more convinced! Having missed out on any significant snow for over 2 years now (having been away and moved houses etc) I would love for us to get 10-15cms but am naturally sceptical!

[Harsh Climate]

Heaviest will be the spine of yorkshire (york southwards)

We shall see craig lol

Edited February 2, 2012 by Harsh Climate