London & The South East Regional Discussion - Part 6

[steveh19]

Is that in reply to my post weahtermaster? If so, thank you, thats given me a bit more hope now. We do struggle with snow in Worthing .

[Team Jo]

Patience folks! It's a coming I'm not expecting much until after dark, as has been forecast, and based on the precip taking it's time to trundle over. All good!

[bobbydog]

Finally cloudy here with the first snizzley flakes falling (sorry Coast )

Temp peaked at 1.5C but is now trending down.

Current temp 1.0C

Dew point -1.2C

temp 1.6c dewpoint -3.3c here. both falling again, all looking good!

[BLUNT]

Is there going to be any mild air left behind the warm front? or within the Occlusion? the Cold Front is catching up, but even behind this the air is alot warmer, will the continental polar air hold on here?

[EML Network]

Dew point falling back down again thankfully after reaching -0.5 for a while, back down to -1.1 , temperature holding steady at +1.0....steady as she goes , reports of snow in Bournmouth is encouraging

[wchris_uk]

Glad to report I am finally understanding the element that might make things marginal along the coast - there are warmer winds coming from the channel, if it stays like this when the main front passes then it will be more marginal here (thinking isle of wight to beachy head) - being realistic saves my sanity!!

warmer winds? i thought it was colder over there?

[Ruthie]

Hello from the west bit of our region. Can confirm its very cloudy here in brentford. We lost the sun a short while ago. Barely above freezing here. Off to the shops to get some wine as think tonight gonna be a long one...

[sarah7meme]

-2 driving back from folkestone

[bobbydog]

the birds have gone on a feeding frenzy in the garden, maybe they can feel it approaching....

[Alpine glow]

Living in Brighton is a snow lovers nightmare! It's always like this I always remain hopeful but it would be nice be to really sure for once!!!

[donna-m]

Anyone else thinking today is going really sllllooooowwwwww........ ??

Hurry up. i want to radar and lamp post watch now *stamps feet*

In the mean time though temp is -1.1c here, dew point -3.3c and humidity is 84% .......

[Nick F]

Was worried about some marginality near the south coast when front arrives, but dew points seem to be holding down nicely atm looking at the 1300 plot below (DPs in green) - DPs very low across Nern France - where the winds blowing from - so at least the air may stay dry enough once its crossed the channel for snow right to the south coast:

[steveh19]

Alpine glow, I know what you mean. But you have a better chance than us in worthing, being further east .

[Brightlight]

warmer winds? i thought it was colder over there?

not an expert and cant guarantee I have understood what I am reading on the Significant Snow Threat thread, but the Southerly winds coming off the channel at the moment towards Brighton/Worthing area are warming the air - slightly! I think!

Living in Brighton is a snow lovers nightmare! It's always like this I always remain hopeful but it would be nice be to really sure for once!!!

Agree - my sanity is on the edge! I will be happy when I know either way!

[Floatylight]

Just braved sainsbury's very busy,took ages to find a car parking space.

Has plenty of everything except there curry's ?

The temp as driving around changing from -1 to -3 c, all the time.

Looking to the sky at about 8:30pm for signs of snow i rekon.

[Brightlight]

Was worried about some marginality near the south coast when front arrives, but dew points seem to be holding down nicely atm looking at the 1300 plot below (DPs in green) - DPs very low across Nern France - where the winds blowing from - so at least the air may stay dry enough once its crossed the channel for snow right to the south coast:

Thanks for update :-)

[EML Network]

For once in my life I LOVE the bbc :-) latest update on the site, this is for midnight tonight

[BLUNT]

lots of people buying milk in Iceland, also Waitrose was really busy at 9.0 AM,people with lots of trollies not much Meat left

[Jason H]

lots of people buying milk in Iceland, also Waitrose was really busy at 9.0 AM,people with lots of trollies not much Meat left

How sad is that? People whipped into a frenzy by headline hunting media. Dumbed down Britain.

Must say it's looking good for the whole of our region. As the fronts approach the winds suck in the freezing dew points from Continental Europe. Guaranteed snow for all I would have thought for anyone East of the Isle of Wight. Inland and further North, it could be lovely powdery snow.

[Neilsouth]

Went to my invest last night!

Grays - Light dusting at about 3am ish, slept at hotel, drove back through dartford then through to kent, no snow in west kent on ground, 1-2cm outside of faversham and a 1cm covering in some parts towards herne bay.

[A Wintry Mix]

Local radio had their weather expert on and he sounds like a mildie!

said that there will be enough for a snowball but not snowman, then turning to rain and then icy!

and before he spoke they said the met office have issued a severe weather warning. lol

[rmc1987]

Could someone clarify for me something? When I hear of snow moving East turning to rain as it does in Western areas. I guess this means out West and is England as a whole rather than regionally? I'm to the West of London in East Berks and snowfall without rain, heavy too would be nice. It's just I've heard a lot of reference to Eastern parts and wondered if this was regional or England wide.

[SMU]

Afternoon All-

Just checking in- I will be online from 630pm tonight- all the way through-

Just driven through bexleyheath- Car parked temp was 0c, as soon as I arrived home it dropped to -1, so its certainly going to be an ice day here which is VERY rare with no snow-

Anyway just a quick post to cover off dewpoints-

These are funny but vitally important-

Did you know?-

Your snow depth isnt just related to the amount of PPN that falls- its also related to the density of the snow falling-

So for example you can have 10mm of rain- which on one occasion falls as snow and settles to 7cm & another instance where the same amount of PPN falls- say 10mm & you get 15cms of snow-

The UK usually gets POOR quality snow, usually modified airmasses from the North west or North east usually ensure that the proportion of water V air is high so the accumulation rate is at the low end- Maybe 1mm = 0.7 CM of snow or worse 0.5cm of snow ( we refer to that as a 1:5 ratio)

This wet snow is the reason for trees falling under the weight of wet snow-

usually in these circumstances surface temps are at zero or just above & the dewpoint is very close- so it may be 0.5c / 0.2C DP-

Occasionally we do get drier snow, if we get a TRUE arctic air mass- who remembers Jan 07 when that cold front came across the UK in the late afternoon- it was the 'thundersnow event'- this was a true arctic front & the air was less modified & the rates of accumulation got up to close on 1:10 which is excellent-

When the front arrived the surface dropped to 0c + 0c DP

Today I would class as the second best snowfall we can get only surpassed by frontal snow from the East wrapped in sub -15c air ( Note what was showing in the 06z today)

The dry air from the continent that undercuts the front today will be responsible for the best type of DRY snow possible, snow flakes will simply float to the ground as opposed to that fast heavy snow we get-

As its got a larger density of Air its lighter & we could see rates of 1:15 TODAY ( 10MM =15CM)

Ideally in the snow to get this you want something like -1c + -2c DP

As a result of this I am upping my depth estimates to 30cm for the sweet spot- which is only 20mm of rain-

Widespread falls of 10-15 & slightly less 3-7 in areas that get the weaker soundings....

best regards

Steve

Edited February 4, 2012 by Steve Murr

[EML Network]

just browsing through some of the web cams up and down the country, they Dewfinately have snow in Stoke

[danm]

Excellent update, cheers Steve!

A lot of people in the NW thread are reporting freezing rain. Literally the rain is freezing instantly into ice and some guys are saying icicles are forming on their car and windowsills etc. People up there are reporting sub zero air temps and dew points, but there is obviously a wedge of cold air at the surface with milder air aloft. As there is still a mild sector in the NW (fronts haven't occluded yet) I don't think that will be a problem here and the vast majority of us should see an all snow event, as the front will be occluded once it reaches here, eradicating the mild sector.