Scotland Regional Discussion - Cold Spell Part 2

[LomondSnowstorm]

NMM shows this phantom snowfall for the east on Wednesday evening too: snowiest mesoscale charts for here all winter yet uppers are only -1C!

[A Winter's Tale]

December was 3.1C, January was 3.2C, February has started off cold and there may be more - how cold will the mean temperature for this month need to be for this winter to be below average?

[LomondSnowstorm]

December was 3.1C, January was 3.2C, February has started off cold and there may be more - how cold will the mean temperature for this month need to be for this winter to be below average?

Well totalling the 3 monthly averages you get 8C, so that's 1.7C needed to get a below average winter. Doable certainly, especially if northerlies are on the cards...

[Northernlights]

Got a bit breezy outside and currently 1c but in spite of this everything at ground level is bone dry and frozen hard. I know it may get milder at the end of the week but it feels lke the cold is hanging around.

[Cheggers]

-3C and crystal clear. Going to take a few above average days to even scratch the frozen surface

[snowy owl]

Just popped by to say hello,and get a quick update.

I have been out doing my volunteering bit for the community,so not had a mo to check in.

Looking like some lovely output again. Here's to a great walk tomorrow a.m. before any rain?

[Hairy Celt]

Well the 18 looks like a pile of scribble to me in my ignorance, can't recall seeing anything like that.... hmm, well, maybe <scratches head> dunno, something about it looks familiar but it's not recent. Off for my beauty sleep now, early start to go and get wet tomorrow.

[over_the_rainbow]

So it's looking like a wee bit more snow for the SE later in the week.....we are not bitter, but instead are pleased for our southern cousins (deep, deep down) ........

[Benvironment]

I've noticed recently that I've made an unplanned return to looking only for hill snow rather than it snowing at home. That's how I spent most winters up until 2009.....before those last few winters came along with their welcome weirdness.

I can remember only ever caring if it snowed on the hills, as that was enough for me as I just wanted to be slogging through snowy coires and over snowy ridges. So now that I'm back in pre-2009 mode I actually feel quite liberated

PS - oh and I've been meaning to ask, why is it that putting a ; followed by a ), y'know to show a winky-type comment, results in a hideous gargoyle pulling faces at people? <looks confused>

Edited February 7, 2012 by Scotster

[spindrift1980]

I've noticed recently that I've made an unplanned return to looking only for hill snow rather than it snowing at home. That's how I spent most winters up until 2009.....before those last few winters came along with their welcome weirdness.

I can remember only ever caring if it snowed on the hills, as that was enough for me as I just wanted to be slogging through snowy coires and over snowy ridges. So now that I'm back in pre-2009 mode I actually feel quite liberated

That pretty much echoes my thoughts this winter. I haven't minded the lack of lowland snowfall too much since there is something exciting and quite satisying about starting off on bare ground at the bottom of a hill and working your way up until you hit the snowline and you feel as if you have moved through 2 or 3 climatic zones by climbing a few hundred metres and you have to work a bit (a lot!) for your reward of snow and ice. Plus it is easier to travel around on the low ground and you get the excitement of glimpsing the snow hillsides as you travel into the highlands - it can be very striking too when the glens are bare and brown and the mountains white.

Having said that, the last couple of winters have re-awakened my interest in lowland snowfall and it would be nice to see a bit more soon. At least in Scotland you are never too far from somewhere that might see some snow whereas if you live in Luton or Lincoln or wherever it is a bit of an all or nothing scenario. I tend to look at forecasts etc from both a highland and lowland point of view and there is almost always something of interest.

[lorenzo]

Litlle bit of history repeating with another band tracking in and heading SE across the country from midnight into the early hours.

Possibly another freezing rain episode, hard frosts are easier to scrape off the car in the morning, freezing rain requires a bit of elbow grease to shift. Expect a ramp in the model thread again as this front then stalls as it fizzles away over the SE corner.

Looking at the 00z ECM not as progressive with the solutions for around Feb 14th. A belter of a Mid Atlantic or UK High parked to our west, it just doesnt quite get there towards the end of the run flattening again.

GFS and UKMO still ridging NW towards a GH.

So still a little bit of play in the set up approaching mid month. This UK high is one of the analogs for the MJO waves moving 8-1 so not surprising to see it and the models also represent an NAO / AO pattern meandering around the neutral.

Still a few runs needed to decipher this one... ( and to find our Nor / Noreasterly blast)..

[Northernlights]

High windchill this morning with a strong southerly wind and currently1.5c,ground still dry and frozen hard. Inside jobs today feeding /bedding cattle in the steading or in a tractor with a heater!!!!!

[Cheggers]

-2c on route to work @ 7am. Clouds look very grey and heavy out West.

[snowy owl]

Lovely frozen morning here, sun splitting the sky.

I see there is rain/snow/freezing rain on the way thoug. Note to self - keep car in the garage - don't fancy having to de-ice that lot.

Awaiting the foreast to perk up a bit - kids are on half term next week -could do with some snow for the hols

I see what you mean Scotster enter ; followed by ) and you get

Time to get some work done, have a great day see you all later.

Edited February 8, 2012 by snowy owl

[Poots]

It's still -1c here and the wind chill is currently -4.3c but it feels colder! Lovely day again here though with blue skies and bright sunshine.

[blitzen]

What WE wouldn't give for some of this eh? Unfortunately, the 2nd video kinda ties in with the Meto latest outlook for us next week. *sigh*

http://www.accuweath...keting-eu/61236

really starting to loose hope now. Just not meant to be this year I think.

Edited February 8, 2012 by Blitzen

[edo]

What WE wouldn't give for some of this eh? Unfortunately, the 2nd video kinda ties in with the Meto latest outlook for us next week. *sigh*

http://www.accuweath...keting-eu/61236

really starting to loose hope now. Just not meant to be this year I think.

yup know what you mean...If this was mid january I would be delighted with the signals but I fear by the time we get favoured synoptics it will be too late to be a great spell although some short term snow thats enough to have fun in with the kids for a day still possible well into march but never as exciting when looking for a more prolonged spell....can imagine if see nowt how much will be agonising over the models come november desperate to see those flakes falling

[edo]

2.7 c here and i have to say feels pleasant with no wind....grey cloud rolling in so expect to see 4 c before afternoon out and rain during the night unfortunately

[blitzen]

yup know what you mean...If this was mid january I would be delighted with the signals but I fear by the time we get favoured synoptics it will be too late to be a great spell although some short term snow thats enough to have fun in with the kids for a day still possible well into march but never as exciting when looking for a more prolonged spell....can imagine if see nowt how much will be agonising over the models come november desperate to see those flakes falling

Hi EDO> The really infuriating thing for me today is we are currently sitting at 0.8c/-9c with a northerly wind forecast for later. The front which is forecast to be moving down over us overnight will be of rain! Maybe some higher elevations will see some snow. You really couldn't make it up could you?

Edited February 8, 2012 by Blitzen

[edo]

alright Blitzy....Yes your right for the last few posts I could just say see blitzens post above and not bother typing.....ECM still looking ok with potential around 14th 15th to pull in a decent Northerly but then it does not materialise....how often have we looked at potential though this winter....we are back in the age of praying for everything to fall in place instead of the last 2 years of watching them fall in place....that unfortunately though is our normal winter..I got sucked into maybe we were in new age winters that were going to be snowy but alas not for many.....

this looks messy on ukmo at 144 http://www.meteociel...=144&carte=1021

perhaps SS or LS or CSS could tell me what it would mean or the ambassador of course

Edited February 8, 2012 by edodfc

[snowy owl]

well Blitzen, maybe we should all book a flight off to Rome for Tomorrow and enjoy the snow!! I am getting a little depressed too i have to say, shame all the systems seem to be evading Britain (scotland in particular).

[BleakMidwinter]

Ah never give up hope, folk! When we moved from the SE of England to Scotland when I was ten, I'd pretty mcuh never seen snow, ever - something in books for me... straight into the winter of 79-80 which was for Edinburgh like 2010-11, weeks of deep snow lying and more falling, sub-zero for weeks on end (I know this because my P7 class did a weather project taking the temperature at noon each day and for two weeks straight it was minus-something!)... and then in 1980, iirc, it snowed on Independence Day, July 4th, long enough and deep enough to have a snowball fight.

Anything's possible...

[November13]

alright Blitzy....Yes your right for the last few posts I could just say see blitzens post above and not bother typing.....ECM still looking ok with potential around 14th 15th to pull in a decent Northerly but then it does not materialise....how often have we looked at potential though this winter....we are back in the age of praying for everything to fall in place instead of the last 2 years of watching them fall in place....that unfortunately though is our normal winter..I got sucked into maybe we were in new age winters that were going to be snowy but alas not for many.....

this looks messy on ukmo at 144 http://www.meteociel...=144&carte=1021

perhaps SS or LS or CSS could tell me what it would mean or the ambassador of course

The only thing I would disagree with is what a normal winter is. Sure in the last 7-10 years barring the last two winters. We have had this pattern of mild uppers and little lasting snow. However 20 years ago a normal winter was much colder with more snowfall and definatley a colder November December. We got into the thinking up until 2010 that winters were getting milder and that was the norm but rewind 20 years and the sledges were still out and there was widespread frozen spells.Skating on canals,burst pipes at school.I remember getting sick of the snow at school never hear of kids saying that now.

[snowy owl]

Nov 13 - i think we all need to go back and look at the stats and see what winters were actually like and compare to this year and see where this year rates. I am quite interested to see the results. Where would be best the place to view the stats?

I had mentioned to our rellies in Australia to come over and see the snow (they have never seen any) my how glad i am they were'nt coming this winter!

I also had a thought on reading your note - the sledge has not been out of its box this year - sad but true, last winter it was our preferred mode of transport for the kids.

My snow shovel now has its own hook in the garage - looks like the spiders will be setting up home for a while lol!

[Benvironment]

-0.7C here and hasn't been above freezing yet. Hopefully it'll stay cold up until midnight to give me the first ice day since.....oooo.....December 2010 I think! I imagine it will be snatched away in the final hours though.