Significant Snow/Freezing Rain Risk - 9-10th February

[nick sussex]

I'm guessing everyone knows already about the Meteox forecast toll for 3 hours ahead?

http://meteox.co.uk/...ar=-3&soort=exp

Thanks, judging by that I'll have to beg forgiveness from the UKMO as that clump of precip suddenly shoots west! lol

We'll just have to see what happens over the next few radar returns!

[P-M]

While you lucky Midlanders and Southerners get the exciting white stuff spare a thought for us Northerners who are contending with freezing rain - bring back the Atlantic and mild with wind storms (purely from an IMBY perspective) - rather than this horrible stuff. I have nearly went a***e over heel a few times today and there's beena mutli car crash in Gateshead involving a bus!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wear-16952926 Cumbria drivers warned as freezing rain causes 97 crashes

[danm]

That doesn't surprise me. I remember a few years ago the BBC were predicting snow across the S coast when a look at the radar at 6pm suggested it would remain in the Channel. Even on the 10.30pm forecast they were still forecasting the same and yet a simple glance at the radar would of told them otherwise.

Yeah it's quite bizarre sometimes when they are forecasting something that is at odds with what is actually happening. I've seen it happen numerous times. it's almost as if they aren't able to change the graphics, and there is a password lock so that the graphics can only show what their high res model shows, even when the radar is showing something different!

Never quite understood this.

[trisnow]

Does that not just forecast based on the current trajectory?

I think so yes but also updated each time a realtime snapshot has come in so always updating the trajectory I think.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yeah it's quite bizarre sometimes when they are forecasting something that is at odds with what is actually happening. I've seen it happen numerous times. it's almost as if they aren't able to change the graphics, and there is a password lock so that the graphics can only show what their high res model shows, even when the radar is showing something different!

Never quite understood this.

Probably a mix of sloppiness, lack of time and cost, it would mean that instead of updating after each model run as usual, there would be numerous updates in between

[Buckster76]

its definately pivoting now

[warmintim]

Here in North Tyneside we've had freezing rain since early this morning.

So far my colleague slipped down steps outside her house resulting in badly sprained ankle and back and is at home in tears; I slipped getting out of the car at work and pulled muscles in my back; another colleague slipped over and hurt his elbow; another was involved in a multi-car accident on the way in and is in hospital; another slipped walking across the carpark and has broken his arm. And they are the ones I know about.....

Maybe they should have listened to the Met Office warnings? In all seriousnous I hope all involved recover quickly, but I do wonder about why the Met bothers putting out warnings in this country as most people seem to ignore them...

[Cheshire Freeze]

Maybe they should have listened to the Met Office warnings? In all seriousnous I hope all involved recover quickly, but I do wonder about why the Met bothers putting out warnings in this country as most people seem to ignore them...

If people need to go work they need to go work......I know the morons at higher positions where I work wouldn't accept freezing rain as an excuse not to come in.

[gobbyash]

StormForceLewis has posted his thoughts in the Yorkshire And Lincolnshire Thread

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72471-yorkshire-and-lincolnshire-regional-discussion-thread-part-2/page__view__findpost__p__2262965

[trisnow]

If people need to go work they need to go work......I know the morons at higher positions where I work wouldn't accept freezing rain as an excuse not to come in.

All too true - You can imagine lots of managers faces when somebody uses the MO warnings as a reason they daren't venture out..

[Cheshire Freeze]

All too true - You can imagine lots of managers faces when somebody uses the MO warnings as a reason they daren't venture out..

Yes I've seen their faces when someone rings in with genuine illness, let alone a METO weather warning!

[kold weather]

its definately pivoting now

Sure does look that way looking at the radar, still its probably abit further south/east than was expected by the models at this stage, which is good news for the E.Midlands and the Wash.

[trisnow]

Thanks, judging by that I'll have to beg forgiveness from the UKMO as that clump of precip suddenly shoots west! lol

We'll just have to see what happens over the next few radar returns!

What the heck! Look at this forecast trajectory now! Hardly moving west now like it was 15 mins ago...

[karlos1983]

Would you say snow is likely for Dorset?

[Mapantz]

Would you say snow is likely for Dorset?

Yes. More for North Dorset, but lower levels will see snow for a time.

[i luv snow]

What the heck! Look at this forecast trajectory now! Hardly moving west now like it was 15 mins ago...

Yes meteox projectory now changed to show it heading more southerley direction now, not shooting west.

[jethro]

Isn't it supposed to meet S/SE winds coming up from France when it moves down country and then swing West?

[surfersparks]

Snowing lightly in Hull now and the sky looks full of mischief :-)

[Mapantz]

Just because it's not shooting West on the radar, does not mean that anything has changed. All of today's model guidance still shows the South East missing the worst of it, and moving South West. PVA/NVA may play a role here, as well as isothermic drag. Any PPN heading towards the South and East will tend to die away, while it carries on further West.

[Beasterly]

Isn't it supposed to meet S/SE winds coming up from France when it moves down country and then swing West?

Exactly what I was thinking but is the current position correctly forecasted though? :o

[i luv snow]

Just because it's not shooting West on the radar, does not mean that anything has changed. All of today's model guidance still shows the South East missing the worst of it, and moving South West. PVA/NVA may play a role here, as well as isothermic drag. Any PPN heading towards the South and East will tend to die away, while it carries on further West.

No ones trying to say it won't swing west and hit the SE instead, this is definitely what will happen - just hasn't done so YET and ppn still isn't in the location progged by the models.

Edited February 9, 2012 by i luv snow

[jethro]

Exactly what I was thinking but is the current position correctly forecasted though? :o

Not a clue.

Winds seem to be all over the place - snapshot to give an idea....Lyneham was forecast to currently have E winds but current observations say WSW, Yeovilton was forecast NW but currently has SSE.

Overall winds seem to be coming from a more WSW direction rather than the forecast S/SE.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

[Snowstorm1]

Anything for Middlesbrough ? Im thinking 4pm/5pm for snow to hit here am I correct or wrong?

[A.J]

from what I can see comparing a hi-res model such as the current NMM & against live radar then basically the PPN spread/shield is just about where it should be, give or take a few miles...What hasn't been modeled correctly is the PPN intensity, and I think it's this factor that might be leading members up the garden path, so to speak....The frontal system is expected to pivot (as per NMM modeling) and indeed running the hourl frame by frame radar, it appears to be doing just so, but with heavier PPN still out over the north sea...This could well be good news to snow lovers, as PPN amounts might well end up more than forecast and, over a wider area...Just my thoughts

[Krakatoa01]

The precipitation is no where near where it should be and the front is showing signs of stalling! I can't see areas west of Birmingham being happy with the current happenings. I think Yorkshire, east midlands, south east and parts of west midlands are looking far better than they were 2 hours ago!

No ones trying to say it won't swing west and hit the SE instead, this is definitely what will happen - just hasn't done so YET and ppn still isn't in the location progged by the models.