The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 5

[kold weather]

MetO know something we don't ?

It's forecasts have flipped around. Leicester at about 2pm was predicted Light snow at 6pm, 9pm, 12am. Now it has turned too Heavy Snow for 6pm, 9pm, light snow for 12am. Yet forecasts for more western regions point towards lighter snow and rain.

Probably inline with the 12z NAE which has shifted a fair way east on its 12z run compared to the 06z run.

I did warn people that the NAE has a west bias....

[andy_leics22]

MetO know something we don't ?

It's forecasts have flipped around. Leicester at about 2pm was predicted Light snow at 6pm, 9pm, 12am. Now it has turned too Heavy Snow for 6pm, 9pm, light snow for 12am. Yet forecasts for more western regions point towards lighter snow and rain.

This is getting extremely annoying now, another yellow blob just passed over us and nothing is falling, yet places like Milton Keynes, Peterborough and Nottingham have snow falling now, GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.

[Polar Low]

Heaviest snow of the day here now, still only moderate in nature though, things are beginning though. Still a good covering here in many areas, so could have a decent depth again by midnight or so.

[andy_leics22]

Depends where you are Bish, IMO Staffs, Birmingham Westwards, Shropshire, Worcestershire... It will start as rain/sleet/freezing rain and then turn to snow after a few hours, places like Leicester, Coventry, Rutland and Warwickshire as a whole... I'd expoect it to start as snow and stay as snow but don't hold me to that, it's just my hunch from looking at the models this morning.

Lets see if I end up with eggy face or not :lol:

My prediction at 9am this morning, so far so good...

[Luke]

Haha, last minute downgrades. Surprise, surprise. Lots of lampost watching this evening and overnight me thinks, scrap radar, scrap models. Had a feeling this would end up as a dissapointment and Im 80% sure im going to be bang on.

Wow, don't think i've ever seen a positive post from you.

[PolarWarsaw]

Rain here. Models don't look too good now.

Yawn - its been coming with so many twists and changes. No accumulating snow here now, im 90% sure. I did fear this would be more marginal, more risky and less likely to be an event of notice. Think im going to turn my laptop off all night and see what the morning brings.

[kold weather]

I had hoped that with the westward swing of the 06z GFS the NASE had progged the colder uppers better, but its increasingly becoming evident that the NNM/GFS have a better grip on the set-up and the 12z NAE has shifted towards that solution in both the milder uppers for E.Wales and W.Midlands as well as a hift eastwards somewhat of the main precip area. Also much lighter this run...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Meto still going for a few cm's by morning! not sure if its out of date mind you, heavy snow 9pm, light snow midnight, light snow 3am

[Static Prevails]

It's raining here. Hooray.

[XENA]

Light snow now getting heavier...nothing major but its all snow.

[Bolton67]

At last they have finally updated at 15:28

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

[kmanmx]

This is getting extremely annoying now, another yellow blob just passed over us and nothing is falling, yet places like Milton Keynes, Peterborough and Nottingham have snow falling now, GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.

I know right. Not. Even. One. Flake..

[andy_leics22]

This Evening and Tonight:

Snow continuing through this evening and overnight becoming heavier at times. Some significant accumulations are possible in places. Snow starting to clear later with icy conditions developing. Minimum temperature -3 °C.

Oh, that sounds beautiful to me :wub:

Edited February 9, 2012 by andy_leics22

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well I was optimistic last night and this morning. But agreement now between GFS and NAE that the precipitation will move away before conditions become suitable for snow here. Unbelievable yet believeable at the same time.

[kold weather]

GFS now reduces the amounts for those in the SW of Midlands to the point where it only forecasts 2-3cms!

More for central areas but some real uncertainty. Massive totals for Wales BUt it'll be mainly rain if the GFS is right.

What a messy set-up!!

[kmanmx]

This Evening and Tonight:

Snow continuing through this evening and overnight becoming heavier at times. Some significant accumulations are possible in places. Snow starting to clear later with icy conditions developing. Minimum temperature -3 °C.

Oh, that sounds beautiful to me :wub:

Where is that for ?

One thing i do want is big flakes. I'd actually prefer less snow than on Saturday if it fell in big flakes, it's so much more interesting.

Edited February 9, 2012 by kmanmx

[XENA]

This Evening and Tonight:

Snow continuing through this evening and overnight becoming heavier at times. Some significant accumulations are possible in places. Snow starting to clear later with icy conditions developing. Minimum temperature -3 °C.

Oh, that sounds beautiful to me :wub:

LUSH!

[drgl]

Rain here in Telford, it's been raning since 3pm'ish. Can't see this turning to snow TBH.

[A.J]

Well I was optimistic last night and this morning. But agreement now between GFS and NAE that the precipitation will move away before conditions become suitable for snow here. Unbelievable yet believeable at the same time.

The GFS on it's first frame is already miles away from reality....Snowfall already nearly 50-100 miles north & west of where the GFS shows the snowline!!

[XENA]

Where is that for ?

East Mids

[kmanmx]

East Mids

Awwwwww Yeahhhhhh!

Leicester snow shield needs to break first. It's doing well so far, must of held off 2 hours of light snow by now according to the radar. Though I am aware of previous conversations about the air being very dry.

Edited February 9, 2012 by kmanmx

[cold stoke]

rain here in stoke dont know if we will get any snow tonight?

[Staffordshire]

So glad I haven't really got excited about this event, now I'm not really that disapponted! One thing that does annoy me is when the same place gets snow over and over again if it was up to me in give this one to the south west, and the south coast!

[BlueHedgehog074]

Been one or two light pieces of rain falling so far, although the clouds have that blurry white-grey look about them which probably suggests it's snowing a little bit higher up.

[ianbillmorris]

Downgrade from the METO for Chesterfield, Now showing only light snow for us this evening , currently I think that may be unlikely.