East Anglia & The Southeast - Regional Discussion

[Guest archiesmummy]

Another lovely day, showing 15c on our weather station but feels warmer..looking like will get cooler for weekend tho, is it looking like will get colder still for Easter or is that too far off?

[Steve C]

Another lovely day, showing 15c on our weather station but feels warmer..looking like will get cooler for weekend tho, is it looking like will get colder still for Easter or is that too far off?

Yes, it's definitely looking cool and very unsettled on GFS for the latter part of the holiday period. I personally can't get too hung up on this, this far out, but that appears to be the latest thinking.

To be honest, I'd rather have a very wet April to replenish ground water, followed by a nice summer, than vice versa.

[Suburban Streamer]

This weekend will be cooler than of late and could be some frost around too, but will warm up again start of next week as hp still in charge tho not like it is this week. For our region its not until roughly the 7th April wen we see more sustained cooler, unsettled weather from the nw.

Nwp struggling at present, but if this pattern change does occur, u gotta hand it to the ecm 32 dayer for predicting this change 3 or so weeks in advance, albeit a week or so later than originally predicted.

Edited March 27, 2012 by Suburban Streamer

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png

gfs 12z run

http://www.meteociel...4&code=0&mode=1

http://www.meteociel...4&code=0&mode=2

long way out but this would be a massive shock to the system

considering the temperatures this week

will it happen like this??????????????

i do expect a cool down from next week on

http://www.meteociel...t=1&x=316&y=147

small snow risk showing on these.

uk met office shows cold in europe and next run would probably

show us under a north easterly

http://www.meteociel...ech=6&archive=0

ecm at 144 similar to uk met office run

http://www.meteociel...map=0&archive=0

http://www.meteociel...ype=0&archive=0

more runs needed but it certainly looks a lot colder from next week

i will check the fax charts later to try to get a clearer idea

Edited March 27, 2012 by john pike

[lottiekent]

Is anyone else currently experiencing a low dew point? Mine's showing as -10c - surely can't be right?? Temperature is currently 7c

[Guest archiesmummy]

DP here is showing 1.4c and temp is 6.8c

[Steve C]

It has made me wonder how Scotland is getting record breaking temperatures during the day and yet frost at night. It sounds like the air over us isn't inherently warm in itself.

Maybe very low dewpoints explains things - dry air warming and cooling more readily than damp air; a bit like desert frost at night.

Edited March 28, 2012 by Speed67

[jimben]

It has made me wonder how Scotland is getting record breaking temperatures during the day and yet frost at night. It sounds like the air over us isn't inherently warm in itself.

Maybe very low dewpoints explains things - dry air warming and cooling more readily than damp air; a bit like desert frost at night.

This explains it very well http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foehn_wind

[Radiating Dendrite]

Could hit 23/24c in Central London today!

Might have to give the grass a quick haircut after work this evening.

[Steve C]

This explains it very well http://en.wikipedia....wiki/Foehn_wind

Yes, I suppose that the airmass ( particularly in Scotland - Moray, Aberdeen area anyway ) first did this, to become very dry, then due to high pressure and very little wind has stayed in situ.

It's definitely unusual to get such big diurnal temperatures as we're currently experiencing, although I know that Spring is the most likely time for this.

[Steve C]

GFS looks totally different for Easter's predicted weather compared to yesterday. :huh:

To me it implies more dry, warmish high pressure weather. Like I said yesterday, I never read too much into these charts this far out though.

[Coast]

GFS looks totally different for Easter's predicted weather compared to yesterday. :huh:

To me it implies more dry, warmish high pressure weather. Like I said yesterday, I never read too much into these charts this far out though.

Dry, settled but cooler?

[Steve C]

Dry, settled but cooler?

Yes, looks that way. Still this current weather is pretty amazing, so can't ( or should I say, shouldn't? ) last.

[Suburban Streamer]

It felt warmer than the 21.4 recorded here today

[enkay]

Warmest day to date this year, 20.5 recorded in my garden in wootton, Bedfordshire.

[john pike]

that was a cold 18z run

for example

http://www.meteociel...6&code=0&mode=2

thats at 162 to 168 so not to far out

and further out

186

186

192

http://www.meteociel...6&code=0&mode=2

http://www.meteociel...6&code=0&mode=1

216

252 plenty of rain for the south east

288

300

and 372

http://www.meteociel...4&code=0&mode=2

that would help the drought worries

the temperatures would be a shock to the system after this week

if this run verified

Edited March 28, 2012 by john pike

[john pike]

ukmo from the 3rd tallies with gfs

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=6&carte=1021

[Suburban Streamer]

18z gfs switching and backing up the ecm and ukmo nice to see. Still too far out to get excited but I'm liking todays runs and trends

[john pike]

18z gfs switching and backing up the ecm and ukmo nice to see. Still too far out to get excited but I'm liking todays runs and trends

i agree

the charts have been hinting this for a while now

could we see a cold april

if only it was ......

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

gfs 18z run has some support from a few of the ensembles

precipitation spikes have risen again from 3rd april onwards

[yamkin]

http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png

gfs 18z run has some support from a few of the ensembles

precipitation spikes have risen again from 3rd april onwards

JP, A very good summary on your posts. Guess what, Croydon Council usually stands down their gritting teams at the start of April, but this has now been postponed for now due to the possibility of a cold plunge from the Arctic :cold:

[Steve C]

Yep, GFS has completely reversed again - reasonably similar to what it was a couple of days ago - basically now saying a cold wet and windy Easter; possibly cold enough to be wintry.

To be honest I'm wondering why I'm even mentioning this. I've no real faith in models this far out.

Edited March 29, 2012 by Speed67

[Coast]

JP, A very good summary on your posts. Guess what, Croydon Council usually stands down their gritting teams at the start of April, but this has now been postponed for now due to the possibility of a cold plunge from the Arctic :cold:

Have you been reading the Daily Mail again Yamkin??????

Getting in the sun while they can: Britons bask in glorious weather ... but SNOW is coming for Easter

http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz1qUCGvEhf

(I should add the article says nothing about snow in the South whatsoever!!)

[Coast]

Looks to be generally settled for us still with the colder air coming in, a slight blip back in temps on Tuesday then back to cooler?

[Reefseeker]

Weather report from Kingston-upon-Thames bridge this morning - looking lovely, blue skies, water glinting, tiny amount of distant haze looking down towards Richmond and up towards Hampton Court, swans looking very serene and house boats bright and colourful. A beautiful morning.