East Anglia & The Southeast - Regional Discussion

[Suburban Streamer]

people are not expecting it to an cold enough for snow down here hence the silence. I am yet to see a weather forecast on telly that puts it cold and mention the s word or even the word wintry! I notice these are weather warnings for snow but all north of the midlands!

snow chance for our region is not until early hours wednesday and into thursday so i would not expect to see forecasts mention anything yet.

we have had solid agreement for the past few days that it will be cold enough for snow midweek. if we get precip and we get the forecasted uppers then i expect to see snow showers on wed/thurs. based on todays and past few days model runs. as i said couple days ago, its places to the north and east of our region that have a better chance, in particular north facing coasts of east anglia etc. could all still change of course.

as for preferences i am one of those people that would take snow all year round. however, these days i'm a keen gardener so i do have concerns and ideally would like seasons to do what they say on the tin! but if i see snow potential i just cant help myself!

Edited April 1, 2012 by Suburban Streamer

[LJS22]

How is it beyond you? If you like snow...you like snow, if you like warmth...you like warmth.

I forgot that the weather runs on a rotor system.

Not saying it does. Everyone whinges when it's warm in Winter when it's meant to be cold , so why should we all want cold when it's meant to be warm??

I'll say the same as Anthony. How anyone can want this cold spell after the past few weeks is beyond me totally.

[Aaron]

Butting in here, but I think people have fooled themselves into thinking that the past few weeks of warm weather are 'normal' for early spring. Snow is far more likely in early spring then summer-like warmth.

[BLUNT]

I think we need is rain, can anybody remember anything wet coming out of the sky in the last three four weeks? a short spell of rain or snow coming? garden looks like mid summer at the moment like a dust bowl!!

[Anthonyb]

I think we need is rain, can anybody remember anything wet coming out of the sky in the last three four weeks? a short spell of rain or snow coming? garden looks like mid summer at the moment like a dust bowl!!

I don't want rain thank you very much.

I've suffered 28 years of living on an island in the path of a gulf stream! I've seen enough rain to last me a life time.

As for my garden looking like a dust bowl - I'm not quite sure that is true. Yes it's dry but it looks very healthy and green as does everyone else's in north London!

Don't worry everyone - I'm sure it will pi** down this summer to make up for it

[Suburban Streamer]

As for my garden looking like a dust bowl - I'm not quite sure that is true. Yes it's dry but it looks very healthy and green as does everyone else's in north London!

yeah my garden is doing fine with no real signs of drought. but behind my house in the woods its bone dry - and all the brambles etc are brown which is quite unusual for this time of year....i usually have to avoid boggy areas rather than walk on rock hard surface

[Suburban Streamer]

nice 12z ecm

overnight tuesday

[Guest QuantumSnow]

Well I for one certainly don't 'want' a cold spell particularly. But seeing as the weather will do what the hell it wants to regardless of what any of us 'want' then i'm happy to go along with it and make the most of a situation.

Thanks again to those who post charts in here

Edited April 1, 2012 by QuantumSnow

[Anthonyb]

Well I for one certainly don't 'want' a cold spell particularly. But seeing as the weather will do what the hell it wants to regardless of what any of us 'want' then i'm happy to go along with it and make the most of a situation.

Thanks again to those who post charts in here

But the situation is just cold rain for the SE.

BBC TV forecast just confirmed snow for northern England and Scotland with only rain to areas to the south of it as the front pushes down.

This is just a horrible cold wet few days for us and a horrible north wind.

Nothing but a pain in the a** for the Easter break if u ask me!

[Guest QuantumSnow]

But the situation is just cold rain for the SE.

BBC TV forecast just confirmed snow for northern England and Scotland with only rain to areas to the south of it as the front pushes down.

This is just a horrible cold wet few days for us and a horrible north wind.

Nothing but a pain in the a** for the Easter break if u ask me!

Cold? probably

Horrible? maybe

A pain in the a**? yep!

But can we change it? Nope!

Edited April 1, 2012 by QuantumSnow

[Steve C]

Butting in here, but I think people have fooled themselves into thinking that the past few weeks of warm weather are 'normal' for early spring. Snow is far more likely in early spring then summer-like warmth.

I don't think so. Most people who have searched out and registered with a weather forum are quite aware of how unusual the March warmth was.

Personally I'm not looking forward to cold rain (or even a brief period of wet snow) especially if it occurs over Easter. We definitely need rain, but I won't be looking out the window and jumping for joy if we get cold rain, with a cutting northeast wind.

I'm in the camp of wondering why people are excited about this in April too. Let's be honest, if we had a significant snowfall in April, which lay without much in the way of a thaw, for more than a couple of days, in this part of England, it would be a once in more than a lifetime event. It's not going to happen now, so why get excited? That's the big difference between Christmas and Easter snow.

Changing the subject, I went out for a reasonable length walk around the countryside north of Chelmsford yesterday and noticed that a couple of stream beds were completely dry. To have that situation in March is unbelievable. We definitely require rain, but I'd prefer a warmer variety. As someone has said though, the weather will do what it likes.

[john pike]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1584210/April-snow-worst-for-two-decades.html

just a reminder for people who think it only rains in april

and this was only 4 years ago,

as has been pointed out

the weather will do exactly what it wants

so no matter when anyone wishes for it

will probably do the opposite. :wacko:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=316&y=145&run=12&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

snow risk is showing from the evening of the 3rd to around the middle of the 5th

7th onwards still undecided yet.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&carte=1007&ech=6&archive=0

ukmo between 48-72 has -8 uppers over us.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=6&carte=1021

if you run this the 7th has high pressure over us

so could be a nice easter still

ecm

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0

run through this and you can get an idea where ecm is going from the 11th onwards

basically we could see summer then winter then summer then winter all in 2 weeks

least it gives us lot something to discuss

be interesting to see what the fax makes of all this

also i bet the 18z flips to a cold run tonight to make things more confusing :unsure:

[Anthonyb]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1584210/April-snow-worst-for-two-decades.html

just a reminder for people who think it only rains in april

and this was only 4 years ago,

as has been pointed out

the weather will do exactly what it wants

so no matter when anyone wishes for it

will probably do the opposite. :wacko:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=316&y=145&run=12&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

snow risk is showing from the evening of the 3rd to around the middle of the 5th

7th onwards still undecided yet.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&carte=1007&ech=6&archive=0

ukmo between 48-72 has -8 uppers over us.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=6&carte=1021

if you run this the 7th has high pressure over us

so could be a nice easter still

ecm

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0

run through this and you can get an idea where ecm is going from the 11th onwards

basically we could see summer then winter then summer then winter all in 2 weeks

least it gives us lot something to discuss

be interesting to see what the fax makes of all this

also i bet the 18z flips to a cold run tonight to make things more confusing :unsure:

Tuesday/ Wednesday will be nothing like April 2008.

For a start most of England look like receiving just cold rain away from northern parts - TV forecasts now confirming this. with an annoying pointless NE wind.

The sypnotics back 2008 were far better than next week.

I remember the BBC forecasting lying snow for London 2 days before the event, they are certainly not forecasting anything of the kind this time around. Infact no mention of snow anywhere south of Yorkshire

[Steve C]

Thanks John, as usual an informative post.

It looks very uncertain for Easter still. My brother asked me for an Easter forecast earlier today and I said it would either be unsettled and cold, with mostly northerly winds, or else mostly fair, although not as warm as recently ( a bit like today ) all depending on the position of the Atlantic high.

With regards to the snow of four years ago, it's gone from my memory, although I do remember the snowfall it was referring to when it said the worst April snow for nearly two decades. This was late in April 1981 and caused much disruption over the Midlands and north of England. We had nothing in east Essex though.

I've been researching and the only snowfall event in April that I can see that would have got me excited in the last 100 years, in Essex, would have been that of 14th April 1966. This seems to have been a major event and coincided with the lowest recorded CET max for April of 2.3C in the 20th Century. The thaw over the next couple of days would have been relatively slow too.

Edited April 1, 2012 by Speed67

[john pike]

Tuesday/ Wednesday will be nothing like April 2008.

For a start most of England look like receiving just cold rain away from northern parts - TV forecasts now confirming this. with an annoying pointless NE wind.

The sypnotics back 2008 were far better than next week.

I remember the BBC forecasting lying snow for London 2 days before the event, they are certainly not forecasting anything of the kind this time around. Infact no mention of snow anywhere south of Yorkshire

and our weather forecasters are always correct :lol:

[john pike]

Thanks John, as usual an informative post.

It looks very uncertain for Easter still. My brother asked me for an Easter forecast earlier today and I said it would either be unsettled and cold, with mostly northerly winds, or else mostly fair, although not as warm as recently ( a bit like today ) all depending on the position of the Atlantic high.

With regards to the snow of four years ago, it's gone from my memory, although I do remember the snowfall it was referring to when it said the worst April snow for nearly two decades. This was late in April 1981 and caused much disruption over the Midlands and north of England. We had nothing in east Essex though.

I've been researching and the only snowfall event in April that I can see that would have got me excited in the last 100 years would have been that of 14th April 1966. This seems to have been a major event and coincided with the lowest recorded CET max for April of 2.3C in the 20th Century. The thaw over the next couple of days would have been relatively slow too.

thanks speed

to be honest i aint got a clue what will happen on wednesday let alone

and easter.

good thing is it has livened the thread up a bit

[Anthonyb]

and our weather forecasters are always correct :lol:

To be fair BBC TV forecasts have been very good this winter.

Apart from the Cockcroft Peter - he may as well be forecasting a different country

[Guest archiesmummy]

There was a mention of wet snow and wintry showers for the south east in the countryfile forecast Wednesday into Thursday so it has been forecast for those saying otherwise, just out of interest is this still a cold weather forum/discussion?......................

[john pike]

gfs

48 rain

gfs 54 rain

gfs 60 snow

gfs 66 rain

gfs 72 snow

gfs 78 rain

gfs 84 wintry mix

this is what this shows at present

gotta feeling radar watching will be needed as this will chop and change

over the next couple of days

[john pike]

for people looking at easter

this is for the 18z run

easter friday

saturday

sunday

monday

precipitation

only light rain for these days

the rest are showing dry

temperatures will be around 13-15 degrees and chilly at night

[john pike]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

still a 15 degree spread on the ensembles for the 7th :wacko:

easter weekend could go either way

hopefully we may see more agreement on the 12z runs tomorrow

sorry should say today now :blush:

[Coast]

But the situation is just cold rain for the SE.

That sentence makes it sound like it is or has happened? - which of course it hasn't yet so we can only say it may be or there is a possibility.

I'm still plumping for something wintry overnight Wednesday into Thursday and maybe tomorrow night!

Looks like it may be to the West of my location:

Snowfall for 6 hrs ending Thu 05 Apr at 0am GMT

[Anthonyb]

I see the Meto going for things turning less cold by Friday. Fingers crossed, really don't want a cold drizzly Easter weekend

Hopefully that high will start pushing east.

Edited April 2, 2012 by Anthonyb

[John Snow]

Virtually impossible for snow to settle this time of year so anything that falls will be gone by the mid to late morning, can't get excited

[ANYWEATHER]

Virtually impossible for snow to settle this time of year so anything that falls will be gone by the mid to late morning, can't get excited

About 4/5 inches of Snow fell here in the Vale of Evesham around the middle of April 2008, so if the parimeters are just right, there is no reason at all why snow cant fall to low levels and settle[which is where I live] at this time of year! Granted, it does not lie for long given the strength of the Sun at this time of year....

Edited April 2, 2012 by ANYWEATHER