The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 7

[Cheshire Freeze]

not a lot IMO.....a few showers early on, then fairly benign by the looks of things.....energy shifts east & south eastwards during the day....the main action looks to be near east anglia, without looking into specifics, the basic parameters are there for that region, plenty of bouyancy, some surface CAPE, and nice converging surface winds.....not saying that this will be how it pans out of course, just based on NMM output

It sounds familiar........if I remember last year, the main reason for the Midlands into southern northern England missing out on most of the showers was because the main energy pushed east too early which meant that conditions became ripe at the peak time of the day for more eastern areas. Don't know why this has continued to occur, it has to be more than bad luck with the amount of times it's happened. I remember one particularly frustrating day last year where showers were literally initiating over us but developing and dropping their heavy precipitation/thunder/lightning/hail just 30 miles to the east. I hate times like those.

Should send that over to me. Or better than that, over to the showerless land of Telford. ;-)

But nice looking shower, nonetheless, with its mushroom shaped anvil.

Took that this afternoon.......a shower which went on to develop and drop a rainfall (hail) rate of 50+ mm/hr to the NE.

[A.J]

It sounds familiar........if I remember last year, the main reason for the Midlands into southern northern England missing out on most of the showers was because the main energy pushed east too early which meant that conditions became ripe at the peak time of the day for more eastern areas. Don't know why this has continued to occur, it has to be more than bad luck with the amount of times it's happened. I remember one particularly frustrating day last year where showers were literally initiating over us but developing and dropping their heavy precipitation/thunder/lightning/hail just 30 miles to the east. I hate times like those.

Took that this afternoon.......a shower which went on to develop and drop a rainfall (hail) rate of 50+ mm/hr to the NE.

Yep, we're a right bunch of breeders here in the west midlands...lol....seems to be a familiar pattern with Pm airmasses this time of year...roll on a few weeks from now with unstable southerly airmass interacting with an slowly advancing cold front from the atlantic...yeah I want to see plenty of that this summer!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yep, we're a right bunch of breeders here in the west midlands...lol....seems to be a familiar pattern with Pm airmasses this time of year...roll on a few weeks from now with unstable southerly airmass interacting with an slowly advancing cold front from the atlantic...yeah I want to see plenty of that this summer!

Not even the unstable southerly airmasses have been firing on all cylinders just recently......always being shunted off east.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

the times are wrong on here! I know the above post was posted a lot later than 18.54, but yeah could see shower clouds to my north and south at 7pm

t'will say in the morning that my post was posted at 20.38,

Edited April 10, 2012 by Storms? norfolk n chance

[syed2878]

2 hale showers with rain today,

but not a crack or a romble of thunder.

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS and NAE looking very nice for tomorrow. Both GFS and NAE suggest some of the most precipitation being round here.

Some very decent CAPE values tomorrow, Lapse Rates at 30-31c, Better dewpoints, and an Equilibrium Temperature at -45c, again excellent.

So all in all, conditions should be even more favourable than today. Whilst the Midlands wasnt that lucky, here managed a few rumbles of Thunder so there was some lurking about if you was lucky enough.

And of course, the steering winds switch round to a North Westerly from here on in which id say is better than a straight westerly which it pretty much was today. Parts of Shropshire and Staffs however may not see an awful lot as most of the showers form inland from the Cheshire region.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS and NAE looking very nice for tomorrow. Both GFS and NAE suggest some of the most precipitation being round here.

Some very decent CAPE values tomorrow, Lapse Rates at 30-31c, Better dewpoints, and an Equilibrium Temperature at -45c, again excellent.

So all in all, conditions should be even more favourable than today. Whilst the Midlands wasnt that lucky, here managed a few rumbles of Thunder so there was some lurking about if you was lucky enough.

And of course, the steering winds switch round to a North Westerly from here on in which id say is better than a straight westerly which it pretty much was today. Parts of Shropshire and Staffs however may not see an awful lot as most of the showers form inland from the Cheshire region.

That last bit reminds me of an ian brown cold spell winter setup!

[conor123]

Sods law we had the first sunnyish day in ages yesterday when I couldn't enjoy it and then today its already cloudy.

Edited April 11, 2012 by conor123

[SteveElbows]

2011 was very poor for hail in my location, so yesterdays first activity of the year almost beat 2011 in a single attempt. But I probably can't quite go that far since both of yesterdays hail events here were rather short-lived.

The skies are looking interesting already today.

[Costa Del Fal]

Yes, Yesterdays Hail attempt has beaten 2011 already as im quite sure we didnt have any last year here!

2012 is certainly proving a little more interesting than 2011 here so far.

Anyway, yet again the GFS and NAE are excellent for us. Both still suggest some of the most showers and activity being over our area and down the East coast.

[conor123]

Just had a brief but sharp hail shower here, easing off now, certainly rather chilly, dropped from 9.0c to 6.7c.

[Hathers]

Heavy hail shower In Telford. Easing off as I type. Can't report of hearing any thunder. Impressive dark skies though

[Barbmac]

Only a couple of light showers here so far today, temp between 6-7^oC for the majority of the day.

[picog]

Nothing all day. Very disappointing.

[marksp]

look at this baby, looks like it might just side swipe my location but pretty impresive.

wind just picked up, need the lights on in the house now.

[marksp]

torrential hail now, stiched two photos together.

hell, its lashing down now !

[Costa Del Fal]

Rather disappointing in the end today. ATD says a fair few have had something today including the Midlands with a Thunderless zone reunning through the middle aka here. Just a few distant rumbles earlier. A very potent cell fizzled out very quickly just before reaching here. Tomorrow is the last chance of this spell but GFS has downgraded a bit though NAE looks promising again. GFS is struggling to decide on the outcome however the set up looks pretty much exactly the same as today.

Edited April 11, 2012 by Blizzards

[BlueHedgehog074]

Sounds a bit greedy, but I'm so, so desperate for a proper torrential downpour with hail, so am hoping tomorrow will deliver. Otherwise will probably have to wait till the next potential comes up.

Then again, I did get that 10cm dumping of snow in early February, which not everyone in the Midlands got, so I guess I should be grateful for that.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Sounds a bit greedy, but I'm so, so desperate for a proper torrential downpour with hail, so am hoping tomorrow will deliver. Otherwise will probably have to wait till the next potential comes up.

Then again, I did get that 10cm dumping of snow in early February, which not everyone in the Midlands got, so I guess I should be grateful for that.

I got nearly that on 4th, but not the 8th/9th, only a sprinkling, better locations had 2 lots of 10cms

[conor123]

Dissapointing today, I enjoy these convective shower setups if theres sunshine in between, however there was barely any today.

[cyclonic happiness]

We missed everything today as well, but the cloud towers where impressive.

[Arnie Pie]

Although no T&L over the last couple of days the skies have been a joy to behold....

Birmingham had a spheric by pass this afternoon with the 'live' cells coming down from the NW just seemingly switching off as they approached into the area....

anyway a couple of time lapses from yesterday.....The first one full of hail and convection from the morning....and the second the evening sunset with the clouds still convecting

NB; Please excuse the hideous smudge on my lens which i can only put down to early season over excitement

http://youtu.be/pOtpN5lt_nU

New camcorder video of a cloud 'space ship'

http://youtu.be/J3hhQLXCIYc

Edited April 11, 2012 by Arnie Pie

[Costa Del Fal]

Tomorrow not looking so good now. Still some showers likely but the Thunder element may be a lower risk than today as the models seem to have downgraded things a bit now.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Dear king of the GFS model, why u no update storm potential? Be a good model and update the potential on the 00Z run. Cheers! Or I'll tell the UKMO model that you're secretly going out on a date with your girlfriend - the NOGAPS model! ;-)

(sorry, I blame the mini chocolate chip Weetabix I'm currently munching on for this peculiar post) ;-)

[Harve]

There must've been far more snow and wind than I imagined the other week, as there's still plenty of snowdrifts that have survived the rain and relative warmth. They're looking quite out of place now!