The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 8

[Cheshire Freeze]

I quite like this weather and I'm really not embarrassed to say so. The country never seems to sleep when it's hot, sunny, humid etc- which is accentuated by the long days and short nights.

[phil nw.]

I quite like this weather and I'm really not embarrassed to say so. The country never seems to sleep when it's hot, sunny, humid etc- which is accentuated by the long days and short nights.

Yes too hot and humid wouldn`t suite many i wouldn`t think.although we are far away from that possibility at the moment.

No something like last Summer would please me personally for my activites-quite dry but not many hot days.

As you say Sunday--yuk!

[Barbmac]

I like this type of weather too, it's better than slate grey skies. Also we need the rain. However I can understand that as we'e nearly into May it is a bit depressing as we've not yet had much in the way of nice days at all. Still, it's early, and who knows, we might have a hot, dry June/July or August!

[BlueHedgehog074]

Sunshine shield holding rather strong here at the moment. Seems to be just as powerful as the Telford one. :lol:

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Deep FI but GFS going for snow around next weekend, I will likely be too low, but it could be a spell of showers of hail/sleet and snow and even thunder/lightning with strong May sun

[conor123]

Hopefully tommorows weather front doesn't leave to much murk behind it as Monday looks like being the best day of the month if the low cloud burns off followed by a potential thundery trough from France overnight.

[TonyH]

Weather guide for the coming week:

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/309/entry-4393-weather-guide-sunday-29th-april-to-saturday-5th-may-west-wales-and-central-midlands-specific/

[BlueHedgehog074]

Man, looking at the 06Z GFS chart for next weekend, it's one of those charts that made you wish it happened in Winter. Although with uppers of -5*C and below for the Midlands, which should be favourable for wintry showers, still quite easy for this to get downgraded with the Northerly probably going too far East again. If not, then we may just see our snow shields crumbling to pieces one last time before next Winter.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Man, looking at the 06Z GFS chart for next weekend, it's one of those charts that made you wish it happened in Winter. Although with uppers of -5*C and below for the Midlands, which should be favourable for wintry showers, still quite easy for this to get downgraded with the Northerly probably going too far East again. If not, then we may just see our snow shields crumbling to pieces one last time before next Winter.

In winter it would be bone dry with the wishbone effect, no chance of snow for our locations, where as now, snow/sleet hail more likely due to warmer sun

[Eugene]

Even an arctic northerly will give temps upto high single figures maybe even 10C in the west midlands in early May in any sunny intervals, though falling in any showers, cant see anything more than some sleet mixed in with the showers at low ground maybe more wet snow on high ground of the midlands especially north midlands, too late now for proper lying snow for us midlanders on low ish ground, night frosts below 0C could definately be recorded widespread next weekend in the midlands, extremely cold in isolated countryside spots.

Todays temps are 8C widely, thats colder than some winter days and only a few degrees above the winter daytime average max.

[Barbmac]

MetO is giving the W Midlands an Amber warning compared to the rest of the SW of England having only yellow. Looks like being a very wet day indeed tomorrow, and potentially damaging winds.

[Hughsey]

MetO is giving the W Midlands an Amber warning compared to the rest of the SW of England having only yellow. Looks like being a very wet day indeed tomorrow, and potentially damaging winds.

I think the amber warning must be a mistake, otherwise it would be strange for them to have put it in just one county, plus wouldnt the south coast come off worst from something like this?

[Ian Ballinger]

That amber warning looks strange, being such a small area

[cyclonic happiness]

That amber warning looks strange, being such a small area

Why is the warning just for Worcestershire? Is it to do with already high river levels or something?

I don't think I've ever seen a warning for just 'one' county before?

[5thchang]

AMBER WARNING for RAIN in Worcestershire on Sunday

Because of the recent wet conditions and a sensistive catchment area it is likely that there wiil be significant impacts in Worcestershire from heavy rain and strong winds on Sunday.

Valid Sunday 0001 to Sunday 2359

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#extra-uk-content

[A.J]

AMBER WARNING for RAIN in Worcestershire on Sunday

Because of the recent wet conditions and a sensistive catchment area it is likely that there wiil be significant impacts in Worcestershire from heavy rain and strong winds on Sunday.

Valid Sunday 0001 to Sunday 2359

http://www.bbc.co.uk...xtra-uk-content

Thanks for the link....explains everything now

[Costa Del Fal]

Blimey, Met Office clearly have a point for the Worcs warning. However its not been as wet as other counties have been. The sensitive catchment area is probably the main reason.

[Costa Del Fal]

Sadly, apart from Monday, the outlook is rather dire. I expect here to surpass 60f on Monday at least as here usually tends to be a bit warmer than others imo.

But the usual winter synoptics in Spring/Summer are firmly here. I hope to god this doesnt last but I have a feeling we will have to endure this for at least May first before any main pattern change.

Maybe a few thundery showers on Monday and Tuesday though.

[Ian Ballinger]

What is the "The sensitive catchment area"

[A.J]

Flooding could become a major issue IMO simply due to the amount of rainfall forecasted in a short space of time to areas already having received copious rainfall over the past 7 days....Earlier I was driving along the A452 from Coleshill to Balsall Common and the stream/river near Stonebridge golf club looked ready to burst it's bank and flood the A452 given any more rainfall......I would imagine the Rivers Severn & Avon must be running very high at the moment

What is the "The sensitive catchment area"

Mid Wales at a guess, the source of the River Severn...a lot of rain is forecasted over the next 24 hours and it's got to go somewhere....Rather worrying for people in the flood plain areas of the Severn

[Costa Del Fal]

Yes, blame Wales for giving Worcestershire its orange warning. :lol:

Along way to go to replenish many months of below average months but this really now feels like too much too soon. The CFS for May now looks appaling too but with June an improvement. It said that for May though!

[Ian Ballinger]

The rain seems to be arriving already on the radar...early?

[BlueHedgehog074]

Would say the rain band at the moment is roughly in the same position with the GFS Precipitation chart for 9pm with the way it's covering the South-Eastern corner. But even though it's 10pm now, the current position of the rain band is maybe a touch further South-East, than where the 12Z GFS modelled it for 9pm.

Edited April 28, 2012 by Rainbow Snow

[Essan]

Why is the warning just for Worcestershire? Is it to do with already high river levels or something?

I don't think I've ever seen a warning for just 'one' county before?

Most river levels aren't especially high. For example (for mid Worcs)

http://www.environme...?stationId=2007

And the Avon, whilst higher than of late, is still well below its normal winter high levels (and currently falling)

It's bizarre.

Edited April 28, 2012 by Essan

[syed2878]

What's the 12z saying about next weekend has there been any downgrades?