Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May 2012 Part 2

[syncmaster]

Some sferics across the North Midlands also. I am wishing for something to develop further north, its our turn dammit!!! lol

Yep and maybe dift across in to north lincs,,,,

[liambailey09]

Should have a nice storm slap bang in the middle of my exam tomorrow while I'm stuck inside, it's inevitable. Nice bit of cape showing tomorrow afternoon for midlands, EA and the SE.

[Supacell]

Not sure about Queensbury but here in Leeds we usually do well for storms - 2011 was an absolute shocker though and 2012 is following suit. These westerly air flows are useless for here.

I think being up on the Pennines doesn't help. Its good for snow in winter but storms just don't seem to happen.

Anyone under that cell coming through Cheshire now heading into Staffordshire?

Think the north midlands cell will head south of Lincoln i'm afraid, although already looks to be dying.

Edited May 14, 2012 by Supacell

[Eskimo]

Couple of shots from the convergence line, starting sprouting some mammatus.

[staplehurst]

Signs of rotation from a cell that developed/re-invigorated over Norwich between 4-5pm. Initially calm with rotation ahead, then it would appear the RFD came over Norwich and visibility was significantly reduced with a heavy downpour, some hail mixed also.

As the cell moved to the southeast, clear flanking line developed on it's southwestern side.

Some really stark dewpoint contrasts along the line - typically 8-9C dewpoints ahead of it, getting close to zero behind the line. Cell was also initially moving NEwards, then shifted to a SEwards path now.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I think being up on the Pennines doesn't help. Its good for snow in winter but storms just don't seem to happen.

Anyone under that cell coming through Cheshire now heading into Staffordshire?

Think the north midlands cell will head south of Lincoln i'm afraid, although already looks to be dying.

The north midlands cell is to my north, completely missing me, must be over newcastle and stoke

[A.J]

The north midlands cell is to my north, completely missing me, must be over newcastle and stoke

A couple of new cells have fired in the past 20 minutes, nice looking updrafts, they must be very close to you, and certainly make for a very nice cloudscape to my north and east

[I remember Atlantic 252]

A couple of new cells have fired in the past 20 minutes, nice looking updrafts, they must be very close to you, and certainly make for a very nice cloudscape to my north and east

Yes those new ones close, maybe a shower in Stone, but here sun out and hardly gone in

[virtualsphere]

Some interesting mammatus style effects in the clouds here this evening... this following a fairly hefty small hail shower.

[Eskimo]

Just looking at the potential for tomorrow, generally there's a spread of 300j/kg CAPE with southern and eastern areas most at risk, but I'll take that at face value.

[dave48]

Quite convective skies here in Southend, looking very turbulent.

[Jane Louise]

A first forecast for tomorrow. I'm in the yellow box, so here's hoping. Good luck one and all. Click on the link to see the map.

7.45pm Mon

Slight Risk of Thunderstorms Central east Ireland, and all central UK regions 12Z-19Z

A more promising outlook for results with further surface troughing developing during the afternoon period within a continued NWsterly airstream and strong PVA aloft. A strong upper jet stream looks to be orientated across Ireland and SWestern regions of the UK. ATM there would seem to be some overlap of instability to stronger shear potential. Whilst low level shear is likely to be rather weak and straight lined, the mid level support available as per yellow box could develop the odd isolated stronger thunderstorm with the potential for large hail. Freezing level looks to drop well below cloud base by early afternoon for this sector. In fact the upper long wave trough is significantly deep and will develop numerous cumulonimbus cloud anywhere across the UK.

Certainly one to keep an eye on!

http://www.ukweather...-15th-may-2012/

[Eskimo]

A first forecast for tomorrow. I'm in the yellow box, so here's hoping. Good luck one and all. Click on the link to see the map.

7.45pm Mon

Slight Risk of Thunderstorms Central east Ireland, and all central UK regions 12Z-19Z

A more promising outlook for results with further surface troughing developing during the afternoon period within a continued NWsterly airstream and strong PVA aloft. A strong upper jet stream looks to be orientated across Ireland and SWestern regions of the UK. ATM there would seem to be some overlap of instability to stronger shear potential. Whilst low level shear is likely to be rather weak and straight lined, the mid level support available as per yellow box could develop the odd isolated stronger thunderstorm with the potential for large hail. Freezing level looks to drop well below cloud base by early afternoon for this sector. In fact the upper long wave trough is significantly deep and will develop numerous cumulonimbus cloud anywhere across the UK.

Certainly one to keep an eye on!

http://www.ukweather...-15th-may-2012/

Certainly not where I would put the most activity but I'm not an expert. Tomorrow is certainly one to look at though!

[dave48]

Thunderstorms coming in to Essex now.

Edit: Developing in a well sheared environment, interesting radar echo.

Edited May 14, 2012 by dave48

[Buckster]

very heavy rain in Chelmsford atm

edit - heavy hail

[Jane Louise]

Certainly not where I would put the most activity but I'm not an expert. Tomorrow is certainly one to look at though!

What would be your forecast? are you going to spoil it for me and tell me Cheltenham isen't in the high risk one ? pleasee noo lol

[Andy H]

small storm just came through

[Eskimo]

What would be your forecast? are you going to spoil it for me and tell me Cheltenham isen't in the high risk one ? pleasee noo lol

Don't be sarcastic lol

[Jane Louise]

Don't be sarcastic lol

I'm not lol, was just asking your opinion!

[Buckster]

thunder in Chelmsford

[stormnut]

can see that storm in chelmsford from where i am. cant see lightning but the sky looks really dark.

[Buckster]

did have lightning every minute - cloud to cloud - but wonderful stereo rolls of thunder

seems to have abated now though

[Eskimo]

I'm not lol, was just asking your opinion!

Been looking up and down the models and I have a hunch, yes just a hunch unfortunately that most of the activity will be in the East. The copious amounts of times that something has been forecast for your area and it ends up much further East is countless, particularly in similar set ups like tomorrow. The precipitation forecasts from NAE back this up but I'm not sure what their track record is.

[Carl46Wrexham]

I'm not lol, was just asking your opinion!

Expect nothing to happen Jane. That way you won't be disappointed. The usual areas will get it all...yet again...us in the west will miss out...yet again.

And they say the British weather is unpredictable? What a joke! When it comes to thundery weather...it is all too predictable which areas get clobbered, and which ones are left wondering what all the fuss was about.

[Buckster]

serious hail just a minute ago - wonderful - best hail I've seen in this region for years