South East England & East Anglia Regional Discussion - June 7th 2012>

[Trugoy]

Been quite for a while now but im just happy to have my first storm of the year. Weve had so little lightning the last few years ill take anything!

[Guest QuantumSnow]

i think and i mean a big think that maybe the storm is just short of brighton. some intense ppn on the radar showing up.

Yes PB that heavy stuff just passed over me, quite gusty and a bit of tiny hail, plus one rumble. And so ends the West Sussex storm season potential

[West Sussex Kate]

yes it seems to be gone now!

[john pike]

this is what nae think

flooding is possible after the ground is already saturated

winds do not look too bad for the south east at present

tonight may get gusty-40mph

as may late saturday with the same speeds

this is what estofex are watching

with the 2 different airmasses meeting and with all the unstable air coming

in from the west

this could cause possible twisters or set off some heavy showers

maybe even the odd thunderstorm.

these charts are messy so i would not want to make an exact prediction

radar at the ready

[john pike]

here quantum

right at the end of fantasy island

and its heading north

[Eskimo]

here quantum

right at the end of fantasy island

and its heading north

First proper spanish plume?

[Guest QuantumSnow]

here quantum

right at the end of fantasy island

and its heading north

Om nom nom nom!!

[john pike]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

its tipping it down here now

again

for people under the threat of flooding keep your radar ready.

between now and sunday forecasting is going to be a nightmare

[john pike]

now the hose pipe ban has been dropped by most companies

i can water my garden tomorrow now

also when they put the last one on we have had non stop rain since

so my thinking is we should hopefully get some decent weather soon

this is fi and not a forecast but it does show it at present

look at all that heat coming up from the south

that has plumes written all over it but fairly hot as well

[john pike]

ensembles are showing something a bit warmer from the 21st onwards

this is 18z but not too far away

so figers crossed for something a lot better than we have now

[ZONE 51]

get the hose pipe out wash the car , do all the washing, cut the grass, after that the weather looks a bit wet till monday!!!

And then 3 months of dryness..

[Coast]

Morning SE and EA crew!!! A busy day in store and here's a quick heads up from SkyWarn:

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #029

ISSUED: 1800UTC THURSDAY 14TH JUNE 2012 (GJ/SM/GS)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

WALES ENGLAND NORTHERN IRELAND SOUTHERN SCOTLAND

IN EFFECT FROM 1800UTC THURSDAY 14TH UNTIL 2359UTC FRIDAY 15TH JUNE 2012

DEEP LOW MATURING AND STALLING TO THE SOUTHWEST SPREADS AN AREA OF POST-FRONTAL STRONG INSTABILITY WITHIN A FAVOURABLY SHEARED REGIME

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...STRONG GUSTS...FUNNELS/TORNADOES...LIGHTNING...FLASH FLOODING

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE WEATHER RISK THROUGH FRIDAY. AN ACTIVE OCCLUDING FRONT TRANSISTS OVERNIGHT, POTENTIALLY WITH SOME ELEVATED BUT ORGANISED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN UK. SOME STRONG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF INTENSE RAINFALL. DURING THE DAY, STRONG SOLAR HEATING OF AN UNCAPPED AREA OF INSTABILITY COVERING THE WATCH AREAS WILL LEAD TO STRONG AND SUSTAINED CONVECTION. FAVOURABLE FULL-DEPTH SHEAR PROFILES INDIDCATE SUPERCELL MODES ARE POSSIBLE, WITH PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF ENGLAND WHERE TORNADOGENESIS IS POSSIBLE. A FRONTAL WAVE TRANSITS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON, LEADING TO STRONG CONVECTION POTENTIALLY ORGANISING TO ISOLATED MATURE STORMS WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE RISKS. A DRY UPPER PROFILE WITH STRONG CAPE VALUES SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A CHANCE OF MODERATE-LARGE HAIL SIZES. OVERALL PW VALUES OF AROUND 2CM MAY LEAD TO INTENSE RAINFALL WITH THE MOST DEVELOPED STORMS, LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO.

I guess we might see some of that affecting us too, I'll go and have a look at the rain chances for the next 24 hours.

[Guest QuantumSnow]

Bring it on! Maybe even a little trip in the car if potential develops elsewhere might be in order later

Definately a radar day today!

[lottiekent]

Lots of sneaky radar looks at work going on today!

Edited June 15, 2012 by snowgirlkent

[Methuselah]

'Morning all. It could be a day to remember - or forget?

[Coast]

Update on the rain potential:

GFS has the worst of it now missing us?

Hi-res HiRLAM also has it less intense over us today:

MetO showing it more to our East, just touching the region:

Still rainy, but just not as intense perhaps?

But it keeps going through the night:

[Keraunic]

Mornin all. Hammered it down here in Ipswich this morning between 03:00 and 03:30 with one flash of lightning and one distant roll of thunder at 03:25. Tut. *rolls eyes* Typical.

[tinybill]

there looking like there are some heavy showers now popping up e/SE of the UK could have an interesting afternoon radar watching !!!!!!!!!

Edited June 15, 2012 by tinybill

[Anthonyb]

Just watched the weather forecast from BBC over here in Cyprus and it seems apart from Showers today and tomorrow the SE looks set fairly decent to the rest of the country. Especially Sunday with sunny spells and dry.

Certainly no flooding rain forecast now.

Models look to really dry things up from next week too. Excellent news.

[Snowangel-MK]

Had one big bang of thunder and some torrential rain here about an hour ago - hopefully it will get more 'interesting' later on !

[pureasthedriven]

No thunder or lightening - yet - but we have some very heavy rain here now in SW London.

[Suburban Streamer]

Can see lots of showers developed along that trough. Really heavy downpour but nothing else.

I don't have much hope for this arvo once the trough has cleared us....which it almost has already.

Sat24 if u want to see the trough passing thru btw

[Methuselah]

All gone through, now...

[Suburban Streamer]

Gave u a like for your pic.....one of the greatest albums of all time

Random lol

[Heisenberg]

Just started pouring in Southwark.

Im driving to Grantham from Hatfield tonight....not looking forward to it. Friday night traffic + torrential rain and heavy winds.....not going to be a nice journey....