Winter 2012 / 2013

[Suburban Streamer]

what signs are these?

teleconnective signals. there is no doubt that this time last year there were lots of conflicting signals. but this year we have the majority of signals pointing one way. of course it's too early and of course we can't assume that the uk will benefit.

but overall things are more encouraging than last year at this early stage.

Edited September 20, 2012 by Suburban Streamer

[chiffer]

Hopefully unlike last year we won't be clutching at straws looking at charts until the very last minute, in holding well get alot of good verification this year because the charts didn't really agree with each other. Unfortunately our weather isn't set in stone until jts actually happened

[Methuselah]

Hi everyone im new here and am a great lover of very cold and snowy weather. Im a great follower of this thread and love the discussions. I was wondering if some of the cfs charts posted here did come to life would that mean that this winter would be colder and more snowier than nov/dec 2010.

p.s i do not know anything about the technical side of things. Thank you

Welcome SW. Enjoy the (sleigh) ride...

[cheeky_monkey]

teleconnective signals. there is no doubt that this time last year there were lots of conflicting signals. but this year we have the majority of signals pointing one way. of course it's too early and of course we can't assume that the uk will benefit.

but overall things are more encouraging than last year at this early stage.

what signals exactly?

[UV-RAY]

I am currently working on a long-range forecast for the winter season. The preliminary data are strongly suggesting a mild start lasting well into January, and a colder than normal February. I am also seeing indications of a stormy pattern during the milder portion of the winter and a strongly blocked pattern in the cold February.

The same preliminary analysis shows virtually the opposite pattern over eastern North America, cold in January and mild in February.

The ice-free anomaly north of Russia needs further consideration, logic would say that if large areas freeze late or fail to freeze in that sector, that pressures would remain low around Murmansk to NZemlya and this would not favour Scandinavian high pressure until late in the season at least.

I will publish a more detailed outlook in mid-October.

Hi Roger, certainly not what many on here want too hear regarding your preliminary thoughts. I'll just like to take issue on one point and that is conditions not being favourable for a Scandy high. Your thoughts on this would be correct if that was the case but any late freeze there wouldn't effect heights to our NW establishing themselves, much like what is being shown on the MetO probability charts. A Scandy high maybe not until late winter if at all, but heights to our NW look a distinct possibility looking at SST'S for late Autumn/early Winter. Edited September 20, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[snowy weather]

thanks for the welcome guys. I know the charts should be taken with a pinch of salt but you cant help feeling excited. I love the anticipation for cold and snow.

[Ruzzi]

what signals exactly?

Look at Steve Murr's post on page 18 of this thread. It's the perfect summary of where we stand at the moment in terms of teleconnections

Edited September 20, 2012 by ruzzi (snowboy)

[Suburban Streamer]

what signals exactly?

I'm no expert i just read and regurgitate. Check out Steve Murr's post a few pages back. and also check out Matt Hugo's blog which is also linked in this thread.

but the main signals i'm referring to are;

forecasted -qbo. low sun spot activity. enso neutral/weak el nino. potentially higher ozone levels. ice minimum.

like i said above, its certainly no guarantee that we will benefit from these in the uk, it's just looking better than compared with this time last year, that's all.

I see the "up" "down" point system is back.....gonna end in tears, hangbags, prams, toys lol

Edited September 20, 2012 by Suburban Streamer

[Karl83]

thanks for the welcome guys. I know the charts should be taken with a pinch of salt but you cant help feeling excited. I love the anticipation for cold and snow.

Where do you live? Add it to your profile.

[shedhead]

Several members keep alluding to Steve Murr's excellent post, but it's perhaps worth remembering exactly what he said in it. Yes there are some encouraging/+ive signs if cold weather is your thing, but he also quite rightly makes it very clear that unless the strat plays ball the other factors might not amount to a row of beans this Winter. Of course it's only human nature to be selective in both what's read and what's commented on, but this can and often does lead to confusion and misrepesentation...neither of which are very helpful.

Edited September 20, 2012 by shedhead

[Suburban Streamer]

Several members keep alluding to Steve Murr's excellent post, but it's perhaps worth remembering exactly what he said in it. Yes there are some encouraging/+ive signs if cold weather is your thing, but he also quite rightly makes it very clear that unless the strat plays ball the other factors might not amount to a row of beans this Winter. Of course it's only human nature to be selective in both what's read and what's commented on, but this can and often does lead to confusion and misrepesentation...neither of which are very helpful.

yes, for example, if someone was to repeatedly say that, based on a hunch, september will be a cracker, this may cause some confusion

Edited September 20, 2012 by Suburban Streamer

[Methuselah]

hey everyone, ive been lurking in the shaddows of this site for the last 3 years and loving the winter discusions every year.

So i thought this year i should join the site, although i dont pretend to know anything about charts ect i enjoy reading all the posts whilst crossing everything for a very cold and snowy winter 2012/13 ! ... ok im off to crawl back into the shaddows again.

Welcome to NW, Looby!

[Jimmyh]

the latest update TWO for white christmas lol

quote

This latest update remains makes no change to the prospects of a White Christmas, suggesting a slightly higher than average chance of a White Christmas across all of the country, but that means the most likely outcome is for it to be green. There are signs of northern blocking developing during the autumn months according to some long range forecasting models, and if that turns out to be correct then expect subsequent forecasts to increase the chances of snow on December 25th. The September weather patterns are starting to become clearer, and one factor to look for in the next few weeks is whether anticyclonic conditions tend to be dominant

[BornFromTheVoid]

Several members keep alluding to Steve Murr's excellent post, but it's perhaps worth remembering exactly what he said in it. Yes there are some encouraging/+ive signs if cold weather is your thing, but he also quite rightly makes it very clear that unless the strat plays ball the other factors might not amount to a row of beans this Winter. Of course it's only human nature to be selective in both what's read and what's commented on, but this can and often does lead to confusion and misrepesentation...neither of which are very helpful.

I commented on how excellent it was due to the level of detail, how well it was explained and the number of factors he took into account.

Like other things, the strat is but one factor, but with the BDC being quite active recently, even the strat is looking favourable at this early stage.

For the time being, the mulititude of factors that need too be considered for a cold winter are looking positive, but of course, our weather being what it is, nothing will ever be certain!

[Heisenberg]

There is of course some things we can almost guarentee. Winter will be colder than summer, some places in the UK will get snow at some point, some places will see below average temps and some above average, and there will be some wind and rain thrown in for good measure. Its all hopecasting at this stage. All we can do is look for consistent signs and hope it all falls into place.....

Personally im hopeful of snowmageddon but I will be happy with anything more interesting than last years festive season....

[Eskimo]

The forum has thumbs down now, this should get interesting lol

[Aaron]

The forum has thumbs down now, this should get interesting lol

Should be fun!

Edited September 20, 2012 by Aaron

[chionomaniac]

Several members keep alluding to Steve Murr's excellent post, but it's perhaps worth remembering exactly what he said in it. Yes there are some encouraging/+ive signs if cold weather is your thing, but he also quite rightly makes it very clear that unless the strat plays ball the other factors might not amount to a row of beans this Winter. Of course it's only human nature to be selective in both what's read and what's commented on, but this can and often does lead to confusion and misrepesentation...neither of which are very helpful.

I would add to that there is the possiblilty that the strat could play ball, but we could still be left on the upslope of any trough as it where (unlikely though throughout winter containing HLB's).

Also with the strat not playing ball' this doesn't rule out chances of cold - it just decreases the chances of prolonged cold due to a lack of HLB's.

All in all though I would rather be sitting knowing facors are in our favour at this point with a chance of a beneficial strat, rather than not.

We just won't really know what way the strat is headed for another six weeks. Anyone else sharing my impatience?

[Heisenberg]

• Just a bit Chio, just a bit....ok A lot!!! Hurry UP
  

[Suburban Streamer]

We just won't really know what way the strat is headed for another six weeks. Anyone else sharing my impatience?

Oh yes chiono. I would quite happily go to sleep tonight and wake up mid october!

The like button on the mobile version of the forum has disappeared

[Kyros]

Wow looks promising so early on. Im Prepared for disappointment though after last winter

[bobbydog]

this looks interesting....

i would bet, if someone was to superimpose a chart showing colder/warmer winters, it would tell a very interesting story....

[johnholmes]

I'm no expert i just read and regurgitate. Check out Steve Murr's post a few pages back. and also check out Matt Hugo's blog which is also linked in this thread.

but the main signals i'm referring to are;

forecasted -qbo. low sun spot activity. enso neutral/weak el nino. potentially higher ozone levels. ice minimum.

like i said above, its certainly no guarantee that we will benefit from these in the uk, it's just looking better than compared with this time last year, that's all.

I see the "up" "down" point system is back.....gonna end in tears, hangbags, prams, toys lol

sorry the 2 + is me trying to see what the icons were!

[Coast]

Wow looks promising so early on. Im Prepared for disappointment though after last winter

Ah yes, the roller coaster of emotions that is Winter on Netweather! Best to read all the current thoughts, take a very general view on where it might be heading and wait until the colder days (and Winter itself) actually start happening. If you want to see real life snow this Winter then it's got to start with a good chart a day or two beforehand, then the radar on the day and finally, stand outside and stick you tongue out and see what lands on it!!!!

There's no point getting emotional either way yet for weeks!!!

[shedhead]

I would add to that there is the possiblilty that the strat could play ball, but we could still be left on the upslope of any trough as it where (unlikely though throughout winter containing HLB's).

Also with the strat not playing ball' this doesn't rule out chances of cold - it just decreases the chances of prolonged cold due to a lack of HLB's.

All in all though I would rather be sitting knowing facors are in our favour at this point with a chance of a beneficial strat, rather than not.

We just won't really know what way the strat is headed for another six weeks. Anyone else sharing my impatience?

Agreed Chiono, which is why I was careful to say 'but he also quite rightly makes it very clear that unless the strat plays ball the other factors might not amount to a row of beans this Winter'.

We both know how easy it is for thing's to be taken out of context in here, or for some to see thing's that are not actually there.

And a resounding YES to your final question too...

Edited September 20, 2012 by shedhead