Winter 2012 / 2013

[Snowstorm1]

It don't necessarily mean ice age, I think a stormy battering is on cards, if jet sinks south it'll get interesting. As its Joe B cold will be in there for sure

BFTP

i thought it would be like a huge high pressure showing a blocked pattern with the UK on the coldside it looked like something I seen on a bbc video before with a tilt in the jetstream

[gottolovethisweather]

There is a correlation and overall winter temps aren't the sole guide to correlation although you answer the question well. However, a -ve NAO is the real correlation and it fits quite snugly with -ve PDO. One must remember that a west based -ve NAO will bring mild to UK, so the whole story isn't told as NAO will showas -ve on stats. It goes to show that more than one 'helpful' factor is needed for cold UK winter. Nicely highlighted

BFTP

And a bucket load of good luck too.

I can't help but remember how close those Polar Vortexes were to visiting our shores, only to be displaced at the last minute. I think it could well be our turn this time around but don't hold me to it. THIS IS NOT A FORECAST.

[bobbydog]

Well... here's a chart of the annual PDO and the following Dec-Feb CET Anomaly, based on the 1900-2011 average.

The PDO is in blue and the winter CET is in red

No real correlation I'm afraid...

i'm not so sure, there does appear to be a very rough correlation. if the charts were 'smoothed', i think there would be a visible (again rough) trend. the CET can obviously be thrown out by a mild month in any given year, therefore it would be good to see a graph of the years we would consider a 'good' winter, when prolonged periods of cold/snowy weather have occurred, alongside the CET graph. its worth noting that the coldest CET temps have occurred in the negative phase (admittedly so have some of the highest) but very few have occurred in the positive phase.

[BornFromTheVoid]

There is a correlation and overall winter temps aren't the sole guide to correlation although you answer the question well. However, a -ve NAO is the real correlation and it fits quite snugly with -ve PDO. One must remember that a west based -ve NAO will bring mild to UK, so the whole story isn't told as NAO will showas -ve on stats. It goes to show that more than one 'helpful' factor is needed for cold UK winter. Nicely highlighted

BFTP

Yep, with something as complex as mid-latitude weather, it will never be as easy as predicting cold from one factor. Even if it was, things would be a little less exciting methinks!

With the huge changes in the Arctic, I don't envy the job of any long range forecaster this winter.

[Met4Cast]

does anyone have a tradition of watching something on TV or lighting a fire even having a BBQ after first snow of the winter?

On the approach up until the first snow falls, time willing, I spend the day with BBC News 24 on to watch all the weather forecasts whilst browsing weather forums and waiting for new models to come out/radar watching. Once the snow begins to fall, I turn off the laptop and the TV and go for a long walk

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

I was browsing Youtube for a fix of the white stuff and came across this amusing VT

With all the talk of driving in the snow yesterday I thought some of you might appreciate it, if not for the driving skills, of lack of them, then for the typical British commentary!!! Fingers crossed for plenty of days like these...

sorry if it's off topic peeps!

[BornFromTheVoid]

i'm not so sure, there does appear to be a very rough correlation. if the charts were 'smoothed', i think there would be a visible (again rough) trend. the CET can obviously be thrown out by a mild month in any given year, therefore it would be good to see a graph of the years we would consider a 'good' winter, when prolonged periods of cold/snowy weather have occurred, alongside the CET graph. its worth noting that the coldest CET temps have occurred in the negative phase (admittedly so have some of the highest) but very few have occurred in the positive phase.

I did a very basic Pearson correlation between the 2 data sets shown on the graph, and it came out at 0.073, which essentially means no correlation at all. Things are a little too complex to work out that nicely.

Still, I'm sure there are more things I could try and that someone with some actual statistical skill could do a better job though!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The Joe Basa*di Tweet is referring to the SST profiles supporting NAO blocking over greenland...

Welcome looby another kent resident!

Steve

Indeed Steve, so that's SSTs added to the mix

BFTP

[UV-RAY]

The Joe Basa*di Tweet is referring to the SST profiles supporting NAO blocking over greenland...

Welcome looby another kent resident!

Steve

Indeed and that is what I was alluding too also in my post to Roger. I don't see heights over Scandy really playing ball this winter until late winter/spring, for the very same reasons Roger pointed out

[weather is fun]

Our local council have been stock piling grit these past few weeks. Must admit the stock pile looks bigger than the previous years. Is it just me or does anyone else get gutted when the gritters come up there road and clear it all lol. Just really hope this winter delivers abit more than last winter did. But if not i guess we will have had alot of fun ramping it up. And getting excited about the charts only to be let down at the very last minute.

[Robbie Garrett]

Well I remember watching a documentary recently. Can't remember which but it compared solar cylces vs temperature and this prooves slightly interesting.

[Tim Bland]

I see arctic sea ice has officially hit an all time record low. Do any of the more expert posters out there have any idea on what this may mean for the uk? As far as winter goes, I see positives and negatives. Possitive being warmer air means higher pressure (blocking in arctic / displacement of pv) negatives obviously less cold air to tap into. Am I being too simplistic or does this make sense?

Edited September 20, 2012 by Tim Bland

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

Our local council have been stock piling grit these past few weeks. Must admit the stock pile looks bigger than the previous years. Is it just me or does anyone else get gutted when the gritters come up there road and clear it all lol. Just really hope this winter delivers abit more than last winter did. But if not i guess we will have had alot of fun ramping it up. And getting excited about the charts only to be let down at the very last minute.

They must be expecting something.

I wounder what it is.

[Methuselah]

I did a very basic Pearson correlation between the 2 data sets shown on the graph, and it came out at 0.073, which essentially means no correlation at all. Things are a little too complex to work out that nicely.

Still, I'm sure there are more things I could try and that someone with some actual statistical skill could do a better job though!

Well done, BFTV! Could you try a Pearson with some of the other 'positive indications' too? Or a combination of several? I've forgotten how to do it!

[snowy weather]

With regards to the record artic ice melt, is it showing to have any effects on the gulf stream? or is it to soon.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Am I right in assuming that with all the extra ice melt from the Arctic that this will have an impact on bringing down the sea temperatures or is the sea so large and the melt so miniscule in comparison that it is unlikely to have any effect at all?

[Summer Sun]

They must be expecting something.

I wounder what it is.

Our council got extra stocks in last winter in the end we had one week of cold snowy weather so the extra stock wasn't needed

After 2010 there all playing safe now and getting extra stock in

[jonboy]

Some great early signs which are as likely to change as not. However those who are wishing for prolonged cold, snow and ice be carefull what you wish. The last time a prolonged severe cold and snow hit the uk most people worked close to home and could walk there was a considerably less cars on the road and communities pulled together. I give the majority a week before your wishing for a warmup!!!

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

Am I right in assuming that with all the extra ice melt from the Arctic that this will have an impact on bringing down the sea temperatures or is the sea so large and the melt so miniscule in comparison that it is unlikely to have any effect at all?

ye i dont think there is the right amount to make a difference

[Tim Bland]

With regards to the record artic ice melt, is it showing to have any effects on the gulf stream? or is it to soon.

There is train of thought that reduced saline levels can disrupt the gulf stream but this is disputed by some. I don't think the Ice melting leading to cooler waters is a significant factor. As joe b says ssts are currently high.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Well done, BFTV! Could you try a Pearson with some of the other 'positive indications' too? Or a combination of several? I've forgotten how to do it!

Will throw some stuff together for tomorrow, though it will be very basic. I might not attempt multi-variate analysis though, I'm only teaching myself this stuff!

[Met4Cast]

The only thing the excess Arctic Ice Melt has created is a deep cold pool of water to our North and to the West of Iceland

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2012/anomnight.9.20.2012.gif

Colder waters here and warmer waters in the Western Atlantic/West of Africa is often associated with a -NAO during the winter months. It's unlikely to have an impact on the Gulf Stream

[bobbydog]

I did a very basic Pearson correlation between the 2 data sets shown on the graph, and it came out at 0.073, which essentially means no correlation at all. Things are a little too complex to work out that nicely.

Still, I'm sure there are more things I could try and that someone with some actual statistical skill could do a better job though!

that may be true but if you look at it through snow goggles, you can see a correlation!

i think the point i am trying to make is that, though the PDO by no means dictates the seasonal weather, the fact that the harshest winters have mostly occurred during the negative phase and the positive phase seems to give a trend of milder winters, there must be some correlation. i am fully aware that there are many other factors which need to be in place but it appears that a negative PDO (with all these other factors in place) gives a better chance of a cold winter. essentially its a solid foundation for all the other factors to build upon.... and its in place....

[bobbydog]

i'll get me coat....

Edited September 20, 2012 by bobbydog

[blitzen]

This may be of interest re warm SSTs. Apparently it is not a bad thing if cold is what you're after? Interesting that in winter 2010 they were even warmer. http://www.scienceda...20606132420.htm

Edited September 20, 2012 by Blitzen