Winter 2012 / 2013

[snowstorm445]

Greetings from Cork aka the snowless zone of Europe

Looking good for the Winter ahead, many nights of model drama to look fwd to!

Another Snowstorm from Cork?! Jaysus.

[Methuselah]

Will throw some stuff together for tomorrow, though it will be very basic. I might not attempt multi-variate analysis though, I'm only teaching myself this stuff!

Thanks mate.

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

This may be of interest re warm SSTs. Apparently it is not a bad thing if cold is what you're after? Interesting that in winter 2010 they were even warmer. http://www.scienceda...20606132420.htm

this makes sense. this was mentioned on the news in 2010.

Will throw some stuff together for tomorrow, though it will be very basic. I might not attempt multi-variate analysis though, I'm only teaching myself this stuff!

nice one

[michail]

I think this explains all!?

http://www.splashnewsonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/gaga-wm900.jpg

Edited September 20, 2012 by michail

[Snowangel-MK]

If you want to see real life snow this Winter then it's got to start with a good chart a day or two beforehand, then the radar on the day and finally, stand outside and stick you tongue out and see what lands on it!!!!

and don't forget to look at your lamp posts....

Nooooooooo.....I said LOOK not lick....it was Coast that told you to stick your tongue out

[latitude]

http://twitter.com/B...8733952/photo/1

RAMP TIME

Don't ask how this effects our winter I have no clue 0.o

The tweets underneath seem to suggest what hes really thinking.

[Catacol]

I would add to that there is the possiblilty that the strat could play ball, but we could still be left on the upslope of any trough as it where (unlikely though throughout winter containing HLB's).

Also with the strat not playing ball' this doesn't rule out chances of cold - it just decreases the chances of prolonged cold due to a lack of HLB's.

All in all though I would rather be sitting knowing facors are in our favour at this point with a chance of a beneficial strat, rather than not.

We just won't really know what way the strat is headed for another six weeks. Anyone else sharing my impatience?

Yep - certainly impatient... but also a little uncomfortable with the concept that we cant possibly begin to look at forecasts for anotehr 4 - 6 weeks. I am no expert for sure, but to my simple mind it strikes me as odd that long term forecasts try to make sense of sequential processes and indicators, but when it comes to winter nobody seems to bother looking until late October. Why is that? Is there some aspect of global climate or weather patterns that makes the months of September and/or October redundant as tools of forecasting?

[chionomaniac]

Yep - certainly impatient... but also a little uncomfortable with the concept that we cant possibly begin to look at forecasts for anotehr 4 - 6 weeks. I am no expert for sure, but to my simple mind it strikes me as odd that long term forecasts try to make sense of sequential processes and indicators, but when it comes to winter nobody seems to bother looking until late October. Why is that? Is there some aspect of global climate or weather patterns that makes the months of September and/or October redundant as tools of forecasting?

No - it is just that other teleconnections are or will be in place so far, but we will not know how the strat will behave for another 4-6 weeks. And a cold strat could override any positive signals for cold that we have already.

[weather is fun]

As im new here and really dont have much clue about all the data etc. Could anyone please explain what the implication would be to our winter if we did have a cold strat. Would this once again make for a woeful winter like 2011/2012.

[Catacol]

No - it is just that other teleconnections are or will be in place so far, but we will not know how the strat will behave for another 4-6 weeks. And a cold strat could override any positive signals for cold that we have already.

Yes - agreed - but are there no signals in the Strat itself that are worth looking at yet? Come winter GP will use his amazing crystal ball to look up to a month or more ahead with possible strat changes. Last year he hinted relentlessly at a warming start in the latter half of January, and from memory he came up with this in late November. (maybe a little later??) So are there no strat signals now that might point to conditions in November for example?

Just wondering...

[March Blizzard]

Stockport is a great location? Apparently not so, was talking to someone on another forum who says he has relatives there, he lives near Oldham, and apparently whenever it snows there, it's likely not snowing in Stockport, even though he himself is not located above 100m.

I also live in Stockport and can confirm that in most cases it is quite poor for snow, in comparison to nearby areas, for a number of reasons. Firstly, Stockport is fairly sheltered to the east by the Pennines, and to a lesser extent to the north via the hills around Oldham way. Secondly, the UHI effect. It's part of one of the largest conurbations in the country and is therefore highly urban. Thirdly, most of the town is quite low lying, under 100m generally, unless you live in the east in places like Marple, Disley where the elevation starts to rise into the peak district.

To its credit it's probably better for snow than neighbouring Manchester, Trafford, and everything westwards but worse than Tameside, Oldham and everything eastwards/northeast. You can find good snow just a short distance away in Lyme Park, though. It's not just Stockport, Greater Manchester in general isn't the best place for snow. Strangely, however, for an urban location in northwest England it's not too bad for low temperatures during cold spells, as evidenced by the -17.6C in Woodford in Jan 2010, I also believe Manchester itself recorded -15C in the same cold snap, if memory serves me right.

[Allseasons-Si]

Hi everyone

not been on for a while,just a question for the most ex'd guys on here,last year we saw quiet mild temps at this time of the year and going into october too,is this why we had a not so bad/cold winter with the knock on mild temps,at this moment it feels autuminal like it should,so with the below than average temps we are having (if sustained),could give us all what we wish for+ with the coinsiding of other factors as mentioned in all this thread,i for sure have a gut feeling this might be a good winter.

cheers

si

[bsnowy]

How reliable is the Jamstec model, as it is predicting a rather mild winter for Europe

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en

[Thunder Snow]

It's way to early to even guess what's going to happen this winter, however it surely can't be as dire as the last one gone. The cfs are up and down mild cold, changes all the time. However for now ill settle for some rain and gales (roll on nadine lol) and a slow giveaway to some frosts

[Liam J]

How reliable is the Jamstec model, as it is predicting a rather mild winter for Europe

http://www.jamstec.g...orecast.html.en

I'm not familiar with this model, but at this range i'd say as reliable as any other model predictions months ahead into the future? Nothing can be taken too seriously at this stage of the year.

Edited September 20, 2012 by Liam J

[ukpaul]

How reliable is the Jamstec model, as it is predicting a rather mild winter for Europe

http://www.jamstec.g...orecast.html.en

It appears to have predicted that last year the UK was going to get a very cold winter, although it did say that the European mainland was going to be cold as well, which was more on the money. Just goes to show how we are pretty much on the edge a lot of the time.

[Tim Bland]

How reliable is the Jamstec model, as it is predicting a rather mild winter for Europe

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en

Looks ok to me..v slightly above average temps for south and below average for north. Well below precipitation over Iceland area which is encouraging for higher pressure in that area and at or above precip for the south of the uk.

[bobbydog]

one thing is for sure, winter will begin with a 'W' and end in an 'R'.....

[Mark Neal.]

Yep W for Wimper and R for Ramp. That's winter folks lol

[Karl83]

Does anyone know what the charts were showing this time last year?

[Barry12]

My mates girlfriend's dad knows someone who works in the Met Office and apparently another winter like 62/63 is on the cards, but they don't want to worry the public so there keeping quiet about it.

[bobbydog]

my uncles mates girlfriends dads sons sisters boyfriends cousin, used to know someone who worked in the freezer section in tescos. it was cold but don't tell anyone....

[Barry12]

It's true apparently he said coz of the artic sea ice it will cause the jetsream to die.

[Cheese Rice]

Well as Joe B suggested the SST's are favorable for cooler conditions across the UK with warmer water temperatures over the Atlantic which should help with blocking.

If we take a closer look at SST's surrounding the UK we can see from the period 9th of September to 19th there is a cooling trend focused across NW Europe, more specifically surrounding the UK.

At the very least a cooler end to September is likely along with the first week or so October. Of course this can continue providing the conditions are favorable although I'm not sure how long it takes for water to warm as it seems considerably cooler than usual.

Edited September 20, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[chiffer]

I like the Meto however as with any forecaster out there they cant predict the exact extent of a weather situation one day away let alone predict it 72 days before hand and have enough info just in the past 150 years of the earths existence to make a accurate weather pattern. I want cold and snowy weather this year and I like ramping but no one has the information to claim certain temperatures and precip then quote a year that's memorable and Say it'll the the same. Personally though I think if you asked someone from the met office not that they'd dignify it with a answer they'd probably swing more over to saying this winter will be a damp warm fart on the face of things. Don't forget also its the met offices duty to warn people if they thought this winter was so severe as to scare people which not even 63 would, they'd have said by now!

I'll resume ramping shortly