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Winter 2012 / 2013

Summer Sun

By Summer Sun
in Spring Weather Discussion

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snowy weather Enthusiast

snowy weather

Posted
  • Location: Crawley
  • Location: Crawley
Posted

Welcome Along, your love reading through these threads, plenty of people who just like you want cold/snow. The charts the CFS are showing which Robbie posted would give us some hefty snowfall and very cold conditions, difficult to compare to 2010 as it actually hasnt happened, would be very interesting if verified but because so far out, best to take with a pinch of salt... Enjoy yourself on here and feel free to ask questions as the majority are helpful and you will learn alot!

in terms of the chances of a cold winter could it still at this stage go any way and according to these charts how cold could it possibly go and how much snow is it possible for us in the south?

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

in terms of the chances of a cold winter could it still at this stage go any way and according to these charts how cold could it possibly go and how much snow is it possible for us in the south?

How longs a piece of string?

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

this looks interesting....

800px-PDO.svg.png

i would bet, if someone was to superimpose a chart showing colder/warmer winters, it would tell a very interesting story....

to the best of my knowledge no one has yet found any direct link to any usable indicator. All the factors need taking into account which is why we are currently not able, neither a centre nor an individual, to predict with any routine success any season ahead?

in terms of the chances of a cold winter could it still at this stage go any way and according to these charts how cold could it possibly go and how much snow is it possible for us in the south?

no one has any idea about your questions I am afraid. We all have to wait until much closer before we can even begin to suggest how the winter months MAY turn out. Detail, like in any season, is impossible and especially with snow even 12 hours ahead sometimes-sorry

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

I think many people are confusing the difference between short term forecasting and long term forecasting.

Short Term - Forecasting weather specifics, the details in what weather is expected in a given location

Long Range Forecasting - Forecasting the most probable weather pattern, long range forecasting CANNOT be used for detailed specifics, questions such as "will it snow in so and so" are simply utterly impossible to answer

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

the weather here is being very unpredictable right now so I can not see the weather for winter being predictable ether.nea.gif

That's why we're all so interested in it, EW?

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted

to the best of my knowledge no one has yet found any direct link to any usable indicator. All the factors need taking into account which is why we are currently not able, neither a centre nor an individual, to predict with any routine success any season ahead?

maybe no direct link, or we wouldn't have 32 pages of speculation! however, due to my limited knowledge, the PDO is not something i have taken much notice of (concentrating on the basics). what caught my eye was, the 'epic winters' which are often referred to, seem to be in the negative PDO periods, whilst the era of seemingly milder winters, is in the positive phase.

i could be way off the mark but it would be interesting to see a comparison graph all the same. obviously it can't tell us how any winter will turn out but it would be good to see if there is any general trend related to PDO phases. (bearing in mind we have recently entered a negative phase and have had 2 decent winters in the last 3 years)

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Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted

So what are the chances of this winter been mild overall. Please say slim lol blum.gifblum.gifblum.gif

Virtually nonexistent.

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legritter Accomplished

legritter

Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
Posted

If i want to watch big juicy flakes falling past my local Lamp post ,it will have to fall by 00.30 hrs as councill have started cut backs .But on the plus side last week new grit bins were put up in village .As for this winter ,far to early i think to make any predictions BUT the weather as been under NEW management the last 4 winters as apposed to late 80s 90s and the first several winters of new century .a very interesting year so far synoptic wise ,so this trend could continue .will mother nature address the arctic sea ice this late autumn and winter ,will the canary islands get a wet winter ,if it does then we have high pressure to our north and low to our south southwest ,just another way of looking at the situation .i think we are in a fair position to get some exciting synoptics .unless of course mr Azores arrives and sets up camp for three months .perhaps this could be the winter of a good finland intense high ,with a ridge to greenland ,and breast peninsula lows and a dose of lake effect snow ,and polar lows when the finland high retreats for a while ,bring it on ,cheers gang

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

does anyone have a tradition of watching something on TVrolleyes.gif or lighting a fire even having a BBQ after first snow of the winter?

No way, makes netweather forum very exciting, on it virtually all evening

you are in a great location for snow! memories of the horror 20-22 Dec 2009, I didnt even see a flake

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted (edited)

We have just had the first grit bin placed in my parish for the first time since time began. Pretty useless to be honest where i live....

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted (edited)

No way, makes netweather forum very exciting, on it virtually all evening

you are in a great location for snow! memories of the horror 20-22 Dec 2009, I didnt even see a flake

Stockport is a great location? Apparently not so, was talking to someone on another forum who says he has relatives there, he lives near Oldham, and apparently whenever it snows there, it's likely not snowing in Stockport, even though he himself is not located above 100m.

We have just had the first grit bin placed in my parish for the first time since time began. Pretty useless to be honest where i live....

We have a grit bin on our road - not sure it has any grit in to be honest, nobody even uses it!

Edited by Aaron
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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

this looks interesting....

i would bet, if someone was to superimpose a chart showing colder/warmer winters, it would tell a very interesting story....

Well... here's a chart of the annual PDO and the following Dec-Feb CET Anomaly, based on the 1900-2011 average.

The PDO is in blue and the winter CET is in red

post-6901-0-15698000-1348161928_thumb.jp

No real correlation I'm afraid...

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lorenzo Maestro

lorenzo

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
Posted

does anyone have a tradition of watching something on TVrolleyes.gif or lighting a fire even having a BBQ after first snow of the winter?

EW I think it is safe to say that there are a few main traditions on here when a snowy Northerly/Easterly is on the cards..

Things get very busy with everyone reviewing every single model run that comes out in amazing detail in the days leading to potential snow.

Then, when snow is on the cards there is nothing more traditonal than radar watching with one eye and keeping the other on a good lamp post.

You are in for a treat when Winter proper hits, it really kicks off..

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Snowstorm1 Apprentice

Snowstorm1

Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
Posted

http://twitter.com/B...8733952/photo/1

RAMP TIME biggrin.png

Don't ask how this effects our winter I have no clue 0.o

Im scared even to comment what i think that means ill wait to a pro comes round and explains it to make sure what i think is right...

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

Well... here's a chart of the annual PDO and the following Dec-Feb CET Anomaly, based on the 1900-2011 average.

The PDO is in blue and the winter CET is in red

post-6901-0-15698000-1348161928_thumb.jp

No real correlation I'm afraid...

There is a correlation and overall winter temps aren't the sole guide to correlation although you answer the question well. However, a -ve NAO is the real correlation and it fits quite snugly with -ve PDO. One must remember that a west based -ve NAO will bring mild to UK, so the whole story isn't told as NAO will showas -ve on stats. It goes to show that more than one 'helpful' factor is needed for cold UK winter. Nicely highlighted

BFTP

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

Im scared even to comment what i think that means ill wait to a pro comes round and explains it to make sure what i think is right...

It don't necessarily mean ice age, I think a stormy battering is on cards, if jet sinks south it'll get interesting. As its Joe B cold will be in there for sure

BFTP

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