Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 3

[March Blizzard]

Agreed, and the notion that because its March the first that the weather suddenly flicks a switch and an easterly cannot deliver is nonsense as well.

Yeah, isn't it amazing how some of the biggest and/or most famous blizzards and deepest recorded snowfall worldwide have occured well into March? Great Blizzard of 1888 started on the 10th/11th if i recall correctly. My profile pick was taken in March in Minnesota, yet some people think they should be rubbing on the suncream and whipping out the deck chairs at that time of year.

I bet most people in the UK would be quite surprised if you told them that March was, on average, colder than November.

[Bolton67]

Tottenham were also playing at home that night with an orange ball but conditions

became so bad the game was abandoned.

You sure spurs played at home that night? 95/96 season. this got abandoned but it was at Forest's ground

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMF6Uizft_g

[Snowy Easterlies]

I think some people tend to exaggerate the sun's strength in late winter, there is often talk of "Strong sun" and "long days" in February and March but when you compare the length of days early-mid Feb is on par with the last few days of October/early November and even the first 11 days of March are on par with early October. However, you very rarely hear of a strong sun when these months are discussed. I think it's psychological, in Feb/March the days are getting longer and (sometimes) warmer which after such a long period of darkness gives the impression the days are longer than they actually are. It's easy to underestimate the length of a day at a time when you know they are getting shorter as much as it is to overestimate the length of one at a time when you know they are getting longer.

Agree, i mentioned in an earlier post, that its physiological, people are getting down about it getting dark early now, when it actually still gets darker a bit later now than it does for most of march, albeit we are on BST time now and GMT in march, in march people are happy that spring is on its way and the days are getting longer etc so there is a false illusion there,

Also, i agree people would be surprised if you told them march was on average colder than november, this again is mainly down to the fact it gets darker earlier in november than march, and the fact that in november winter is on its way, and in march its spring, they don't take into account the lag effect scenario

Edited October 5, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Snowy Easterlies]

Agreed, and the notion that because its March the first that the weather suddenly flicks a switch and an easterly cannot deliver is nonsense as well.

Yep we saw some cracking charts in the models this march that had - 12 uppers across us, from an easterly, but of course they downgraded as the time got closer, so yes we can still see a stonking easterly in early to mid march under the right synoptics

Edited October 5, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[feb1991blizzard]

Agree, i mentioned in an earlier post, that its physiological, people are getting down about it getting dark early now, when it actually still gets darker a bit later now than it does for most of march, albeit we are on BST time now and GMT in march, in march people are happy that spring is on its way and the days are getting longer etc so there is a false illusion there,

Also, i agree people would be surprised if you told them march was on average colder than november, this again is mainly down to the fact it gets darker earlier in november than march, and the fact that in november winter is on its way, and in march its spring, they don't take into account the lag effect scenario

Thats the key, although even taking it into account, i did not know March was colder but certainly knew it was not any warmer, and April far more likely to see snow than October is another point to note as well.

[bradymk]

Updated charts from CFS showing good northern blocking Dec-Feb http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd3.gif

[Met4Cast]

Thats the key, although even taking it into account, i did not know March was colder but certainly knew it was not any warmer, and April far more likely to see snow than October is another point to note as well.

Yep. Trouble with October is that the cold pool across the Arctic has only really just begun to build and isn't really strong enough to sustain the cold over the relatively warm seas. Whereas come April the cold pool is still very much in place, albeit slightly weaker its still stronger than it ever will be in October!

I just hope the Northern Blocking charts we're seeing now don't develop then sod off just before there is a sufficient cold pool, I never like seeing good winter set ups this early.

[feb1991blizzard]

Yep. Trouble with October is that the cold pool across the Arctic has only really just begun to build and isn't really strong enough to sustain the cold over the relatively warm seas. Whereas come April the cold pool is still very much in place, albeit slightly weaker its still stronger than it ever will be in October!

I just hope the Northern Blocking charts we're seeing now don't develop then sod off just before there is a sufficient cold pool, I never like seeing good winter set ups this early.

Yes, although we must remember though when we see High heights to the North of us out of season and say things like 'wish that would happen in jan' is that because of the cold pool being more intense and the vortex stronger, it is always going to be harder to disrupt the vortex and get the right synoptics in mid winter.

[EML Network]

Is it JUST northern blocking that can lead to a cold and snowy spell over the x-mas period ??

I was of the opinion that a Scandi High can lead to equally as cold episodes during our winters ??

Just wondering why people are always focusing on the Northern Blocking route and seem to discount other set up's that can lead to just as cold a winter ? or am I chatting nonsense ?

And IF a Scandi High can lead to a cold and snowy spell of weather...does that tie in with a - NAO as well ?

and does Northern Blocking only occur with a - NAO ?

sorry for all the questions...still learning

Edited October 5, 2012 by EML Network

[Alan Medlock Valley]

I bet most on here didn't expect November 2010 and just how severe that was

Yes, although we must remember though when we see High heights to the North of us out of season and say things like 'wish that would happen in jan' is that because of the cold pool being more intense and the vortex stronger, it is always going to be harder to disrupt the vortex and get the right synoptics in mid winter.

Yes many different synoptics involved in determining how cold or mild it may be, one thing that always sticks in my mind is if Berlin isn't in the freezer then the UK doesn't have much chance of being in it either. Once that cold starts creeping westwards from Berlin then there's a chance.

[cheeky_monkey]

Is it JUST northern blocking that can lead to a cold and snowy spell over the x-mas period ??

I was of the opinion that a Scandi High can lead to equally as cold episodes during our winters ??

Just wondering why people are always focusing on the Northern Blocking route and seem to discount other set up's that can lead to just as cold a winter ? or am I chatting nonsense ?

And IF a Scandi High can lead to a cold and snowy spell of weather...does that tie in with a - NAO as well ?

J

Feb 86 Jan 87 and Feb 91 were classic recent Scandi High scenarios

[EML Network]

Feb 86 and 87 were EPIC down this way :-)

[Alan Medlock Valley]

Feb 86 Jan 87 and Feb 91 were classic recent Scandi High scenarios

Indeed and that basically forces bitter easterly winds into Western Europe i.e the UK.

Edited October 5, 2012 by Alan Medlock Valley

[Snowy Easterlies]

its annoying because i would love to see cold synoptics in october even if it can't deliver snow, but at least we get frosts, and colder temps, average temps bore me, but trouble is, its almost impossible for it to stay cold from now right the way till march, the azores high is likely to set up over us at some time as it is a much more common synoptic than the greenie high in winter. im a firm believe in the law of averages so tbh i hope we don't see any northerlies or easterlies now otherwise we will probably have to wait ages for another shot. as it will be the turn of zonailty after a possible period of northern blocking later this month,

who knows though it can be zonal one day then 5 days later we can have an easterly, anything can happen

Edited October 5, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Alan Medlock Valley]

These are max temps for Berlin in Jan 1987, must of been fresh walking in this.......http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?LANG=en&PLZ=_____&PLZN=_____&WMO=10384&ART=MAX&CONT=euro&R=0&LEVEL=150&REGION=0001&LAND=DL&NOREGION=1&MOD=&TMX=&TMN=&SON=&PRE=&MONAT=&OFFS=&SORT=&MM=01&YY=1987&WEEK=4

Sorry for the long link.

Edited October 5, 2012 by Alan Medlock Valley

[Zakos]

I personally feel that this winter will be a cold one.

The era of the "modern winnter" is over. A new era of colder winters has begun IMO.

This doesn't mean to say of course that every winter will be colder than average, nor does it mean we are heading into ice age as some like madden would have you believe.

But i think we can all agree that the last few years have seen some very strange weather.weather records have been broken on all fronts.

the jet stream positions has not displayed normal behaviour at all in the last few years. causing extreme events all over the northern hemisphere. Pakistan floods, Russian heatwave, Uk's coldest December in 100 years in 2010, to name a few.

I personally think solar activity is causing the jet stream to do this -

Of course this is just a hunch and I will leave the forecasting to the experts.

[Zakos]

Is it JUST northern blocking that can lead to a cold and snowy spell over the x-mas period ??

I was of the opinion that a Scandi High can lead to equally as cold episodes during our winters ??

Just wondering why people are always focusing on the Northern Blocking route and seem to discount other set up's that can lead to just as cold a winter ? or am I chatting nonsense ?

And IF a Scandi High can lead to a cold and snowy spell of weather...does that tie in with a - NAO as well ?

and does Northern Blocking only occur with a - NAO ?

sorry for all the questions...still learning

I think Scandinavian highs are more common in the late winter. why exactly this is the case escapes my memory.

Also, correct me if im wrong, but doesnt a scandi high count as northern blocking?

i dont think you neccesarily need the NAO to be negative, aslong the AO is negative

[Snowy Easterlies]

the jet spent a lot of time to the north of us last winter though, so who knows if there is a permanent change to our weather or it was just a blip in the winters of 08-09, 09-10 and part of 10-11

anyway i think i will end up going mental if i start looking at every model run now, hoping we don't see a raging jet and south westerlies going into svalbard

Edited October 5, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Nights King]

I think some people tend to exaggerate the sun's strength in late winter, there is often talk of "Strong sun" and "long days" in February and March but when you compare the length of days early-mid Feb is on par with the last few days of October/early November and even the first 11 days of March are on par with early October. However, you very rarely hear of a strong sun when these months are discussed. I think it's psychological, in Feb/March the days are getting longer and (sometimes) warmer which after such a long period of darkness gives the impression the days are longer than they actually are. It's easy to underestimate the length of a day at a time when you know they are getting shorter as much as it is to overestimate the length of one at a time when you know they are getting longer.

It isn't strong and decent snow is still quite possible but for low lying areas there is a definate decrease in snow lying days into february around here although upland areas are about the same which might be due to suns strengh..

January

February

Edited October 5, 2012 by mullender83

[EML Network]

I think Scandinavian highs are more common in the late winter. why exactly this is the case escapes my memory.

Also, correct me if im wrong, but doesnt a scandi high count as northern blocking?

i dont think you neccesarily need the NAO to be negative, aslong the AO is negative

that's a damn good point actually. I guess it does count as Northern Blocking

[Zakos]

the jet spent a lot of time to the north of us last winter though, so who knows if there is a permanent change to our weather or it was just a blip, in the winters of 08-09, 09-10 and part of 10-11

anyway i think i will end up going mental if i start looking at every model run now, hoping we don't see a raging jet and south westerlies going into svalbard

correct, that is why people like madden are wrong when when they say that low solar activity automatically results in a cold winter for western Europe. There are myriad of other factors to take into account, and the science of the effect of solar activity is in its infancy.

Agreed, December last year was a horror show for coldies. didn't even get the cold spells in FI.

Notably, the GFS and now the ECM are repeatedly toying with the idea of northern blocking in FI. let us hope it continues to be delayed, only to finally come into fruition in mid December

only something special would deliver snow to low levels at this time at year, and it would have to be a northerly, as the continent is far too warm.

Edited October 5, 2012 by Zakos

[Snowy Easterlies]

http://modeles.meteo...fs-0-834.png?06

http://modeles.meteo...fs-2-834.png?06

just over a month away but i think uppers are not quite cold enough

when is the earliest possible time for a decent northeasterly or easterly, mid november ?

Edited October 5, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[AderynCoch]

My profile pick was taken in March in Minnesota, yet some people think they should be rubbing on the suncream and whipping out the deck chairs at that time of year.

Normally you'd be right, but that's exactly what happened this year (27C in Minneapolis). Not only that, but some parts of Canada recorded temperatures in March which beat the April all-time record high - St. John reached 27C on 21st March, destroying the previous March record (17.5C) and easily beating the April record (22.8C).

Anyway, to try to get back on topic I agree that the strength of the sun in late winter is vastly overexaggerated. If the air is cold enough, the snow will stick. February on average is considerably more wintry than December.

Edited October 5, 2012 by AderynCoch

[ZONE 51]

http://modeles.meteo...fs-0-834.png?06

http://modeles.meteo...fs-2-834.png?06

just over a month away but i think uppers are not quite cold enough

-6/-8 over the north

[chionomaniac]

I personally feel that this winter will be a cold one.

The era of the "modern winnter" is over. A new era of colder winters has begun IMO.

This doesn't mean to say of course that every winter will be colder than average, nor does it mean we are heading into ice age as some like madden would have you believe.

But i think we can all agree that the last few years have seen some very strange weather.weather records have been broken on all fronts.

the jet stream positions has not displayed normal behaviour at all in the last few years. causing extreme events all over the northern hemisphere. Pakistan floods, Russian heatwave, Uk's coldest December in 100 years in 2010, to name a few.

I personally think solar activity is causing the jet stream to do this -

Of course this is just a hunch and I will leave the forecasting to the experts.

That New scientist article is too simplified and more research is needed.

UV light is absorbed by the stratosphere, but this is responsible for both the destruction and formation of ozone. Any slight net gain in ozone relies heavily on the BDC to transport the excess ozone to the polar stratosphere. It is where the ozone levels are highest that warming of the stratosphere occurs. If the ozone is highest in the tropical stratosphere due to a weak BDC, then the net result is a larger temperature differential between the tropical and polar stratosphere and stronger vortex and vice versa when the BDC is strong.

In solar max years the UV radiation is at its peak and there is a net gain of ozone at the tropical stratosphere - but this will get destroyed by the UV light as well - unless a mechanism is in place to shift the ozone to weaker UV absorbing areas (the polar stratosphere). The mechanism is the BDC but the strength of this is dependent on more than just the level of solar radiation. We know for instance that a strong La Nina will totally disrupt the BDC.