Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 3

[feb1991blizzard]

In any case, on no run as the Atlantic just powered through, yes it looks a bit more menacing but thats to be expected at this time of year.

[liam79]

lovely BBQ weather but make sure you have one before it gets dark as we will be in GMT time

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-384.png?18

GFS 18z FI is deja vu Autumn 2011, lets hope its totally wrong

correct me if I'm wrong as I often am but that chart shows an easterly does it not? If that chart was in winter proper we would be pretty cold??

[feb1991blizzard]

The point I was making, is that everyone is worried about the models showing a few milder solutions, the only reason it came out below average is because it became exceptionally cold at the end of the month

Yes, and judging by the Met office updates, i doubt that the ECM 32 dayer showed anything other than mild rubbish until November 5th, and i bet the GFS only started to consistently model it once it got into high resolution. The other point is that this was exceptionally cold, exceptionally early, if people are setting their expectations at 47 / 62 levels then that is too unrealistic, possible yes, but not probable, 87 / 91 far more realistic but still not the favoured outcome, however, i know i would settle for a 2 one week spells of bitter cold and deep snow and the rest can be rubbish as far as i am concerned, obviously i would prefer a month or 2 months of proper cold but i would settle for the former, if i remember rightly, 90/91 although well below average temps, only really had 2 stonking snow events but they turned out to be numbers 2 and 3 in my all time list of snow events.

[feb1991blizzard]

And another thing peeps, whether it is another 2010 or not, whether it is a bitter winter or not, if you think that we will go through the whole autumn without having some stormy zonal weather then think again, because we will, but that does not mean we cannot get a decent winter.

[Met4Cast]

yes early Nov 2010 was mild, but the switch to cold isn't guaranteed that it will happen again this year, mild more often than not wins out in the UK, so i can understand the negativity over the charts showing ugly charts albeit its FI

im personally not worried yet but i will be in about a month, if the signals start looking bad

True it's not guaranteed, but I don't think anyone was forecasting December 2010 to be that exceptionally cold, I remember the CFS charts were actually touting above average December temperatures for a while that year, if we get to Mid-January and we're seeing mild synoptics all through the models with little chance of anything then the negativity would be a little more understandable, but it's October, and like Feb1991blizzard said, the models haven't exactly been showing raging zonality with a very powerful Vortex over the pole.

It's expected that the Stratosphere will cool and the Polar Vortex will ramp up, it happens every single year, the fact that we're still seeing a very weak vortex or somewhat a lack of one in mid-October is encouraging, I largely suspect that's down to the below average tropical stratosphere lessening the temperature gradient between the pole and the tropics, though I'm still learning about this.

Stay positive. We're in a much better position than we were this time last year

Edited October 13, 2012 by Daniel AKA WMD

[feb1991blizzard]

True it's not guaranteed, but I don't think anyone was forecasting December 2010 to be that exceptionally cold, I remember the CFS charts were actually touting above average December temperatures for a while that year, if we get to Mid-January and we're seeing mild synoptics all through the models with little chance of anything then the negativity would be a little more understandable, but it's October, and like Feb1991blizzard said, the models haven't exactly been showing raging zonality with a very powerful Vortex over the pole.

It's expected that the Stratosphere will cool and the Polar Vortex will ramp up, it happens every single year, the fact that we're still seeing a very weak vortex or somewhat a lack of one in mid-October is encouraging, I largely suspect that's down to the below average tropical stratosphere lessening the temperature gradient between the pole and the tropics, though I'm still learning about this.

Stay positive. We're in a much better position than we were this time last year

Are you going to do a winter forecast this year? I would like to do one myself but i am struggling to learn how to use the NOAA reanalysis / compositing site and still only a novice, i will probably have a blast anyway but unless i manage to get my head around things a lot more in the next month then it will be just a bit off guesswork, the first month will probably be based on model output, the rest will just follow on a bit of long range models, a bit of GP, and a bit of gut feel!

[Snowy Easterlies]

correct me if I'm wrong as I often am but that chart shows an easterly does it not? If that chart was in winter proper we would be pretty cold??

yeah in winter it might be cold due to surface cold, but now it could still produce warm conditions, as the continent is still warm

Edited October 13, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Met4Cast]

Are you going to do a winter forecast this year? I would like to do one myself but i am struggling to learn how to use the NOAA reanalysis / compositing site and still only a novice, i will probably have a blast anyway but unless i manage to get my head around things a lot more in the next month then it will be just a bit off guesswork, the first month will probably be based on model output, the rest will just follow on a bit of long range models, a bit of GP, and a bit of gut feel!

You're not alone on the composite site, I'm struggling to get my head around that too if I'm honest! I've issued a preliminary winter forecast on my site, but it really is just a run down of how the QBO, ENSO, SSTs etc.. were looking and a quick look at the various long range models. I'm going for below average at the moment but stressed that we'd need to know how the Stratosphere was behaving before more confidence can be added to the specifics of things.

[feb1991blizzard]

You're not alone on the composite site, I'm struggling to get my head around that too if I'm honest! I've issued a preliminary winter forecast on my site, but it really is just a run down of how the QBO, ENSO, SSTs etc.. were looking and a quick look at the various long range models. I'm going for below average at the moment but stressed that we'd need to know how the Stratosphere was behaving before more confidence can be added to the specifics of things.

I can composite on ENSO, MEI values, individually but say for instance i wanted to produce a 500mb height anomaly chart for all Decembers, compositing on ENSO values between 0 and 0.5 for November and - QBO values, - PDO values, where the 70 mb mean zonal temps at 65 - 90deg North were below the 30 year mean for October, for instance, there are instructions but it does not give you much info, how would i do that?

EDIT : Maybe im just too thick!!

Edited October 13, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Orpingtoniceagedec10]

Am i correct in thinking that because of the current downbeat nature of most of the comments on here , that the winter forecast isn't looking as good as it was 2 or 3 days ago ?

[weather is fun]

I sense a few people on here have set themseleves up for a massive dissapointment it wouldnt surprise me in the slightest if we end up with a similar winter to last year. Ive not bought into this rubbish that joe b has been spouting to be honest he is well renound for his ramps. I guess we just have to wait and see but i dont expect a snowmaggedon

[lightningst]

Am i correct in thinking that because of the current downbeat nature of most of the comments on here , that the winter forecast isn't looking as good as it was 2 or 3 days ago ?

as far as I can tell the well qualified in this forum have said we are still on for a cold winter, but some people are misunderstanding what people are saying and seeing bits of info and incorrectly using the info to say the winter is over! It's the middle of October no one can say either way with any certainty until the stratosphere shows its hand and that won't happen for another month yet.

[divadee]

Am i correct in thinking that because of the current downbeat nature of most of the comments on here , that the winter forecast isn't looking as good as it was 2 or 3 days ago ?

As its still October you will get wild swings daily on this thread. It's still too early to say what is going to happen. Tomorrow might show a new ice age coming and then Monday it might show the warmest sunniest winter in years!

Look for patterns in the models. Nothing can be nailed on for this winter yet. We are still a long way away from anything to be 'certain'

[chiffer]

Its really to early to say if it's going to be cold or mild, you can't take anything in this thread seriously until mid to late november. Its all a bit of fun at the moment. so I suggest for the people who's dreams get shattered over nothing to leave and come back when were actually close to winter.

[Duane S.]

Am i correct in thinking that because of the current downbeat nature of most of the comments on here , that the winter forecast isn't looking as good as it was 2 or 3 days ago ?

Read very little into those sort of comments. Posters such as GP, Chio and RJS and a few others will be where it's at, taking in the big picture, not the day to day variations and swings that will always occur. No doubt it will look better in 2 or 3 days time before looking poor again shortly afterwards, and so on and so on. Too much information and everything...

The stratosphere has emerged (quite rightly) as a major player in driving our weather but it really isn't as simple as just because the temperature is running slightly under average in Mid October that we are heading for a repeat of last winter. There is a big difference to that and a cold stratosphere which started early, persisted through late autumn and ultimately affected the tropospheric polar vortex to such an extent it couldn't recover despite a much warmer than average strat during the second half of last winter. But in another winter maybe it wouldn't have got to that strength.

Every year there will be a whole new set of variables on the table that will all intract with each other in a way that nobody yet (and may never) understands. i.e. that if the vortex of 11/12 had set up in another year it may have been more susceptible to displacement / splitting / breaking up in other years and the outcome post Mid-December could have been very different.

One small caveat is that a cold strat equaling a strong pv doesn't always mean it's winter over and mild all the way. In fact some of the most severe weather (for the North at least) has come off the back of a raging polar vortex but there IS a very tight correlation between that and cold spells in the UK not being long lasting, for that we really do need northern blocking and vortex on holiday away from Greenland.

[Methuselah]

IMO, it'll, as it always does, come down to the prevailing synoptics that occur...I cannae recall any winter during which there has been no cold weather anywhere...

But, wherever the cold happens, those whose forecasts were for cold will simply point to the affected areas and call it a 'near miss'. Which is why, IMO, those who failed so miserably with their efforts for the USA, last winter, keep going-on about how 'brutal' some parts of Europe were...

But, be that as it may, the weather will do whatever it feels like doing; our wishes in the matter are irrelevant!

[UV-RAY]

IMO, it'll, as it always does, come down to the prevailing synoptics that occur...I cannae recall any winter during which there has been no cold weather anywhere...

But, wherever the cold happens, those whose forecasts were for cold will simply point to the affected areas and call it a 'near miss'. Which is why, IMO, those who failed so miserably with their efforts for the USA, last winter, keep going-on about how 'brutal' some parts of Europe were...

But, be that as it may, the weather will do whatever it feels like doing; our wishes in the matter are irrelevant!

Possibly why the MetO stopped producing their LRF, as all of them were hopeless. Now their probability charts are different altogether, maybe that's down to not including any AGW element into them these days. Edited October 13, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[Methuselah]

Maybe 7, but I very much doubt it; just about all of the seasonal LRFs, that I've seen over that last few years, have been wrong. Did those all have inbuilt AGW-bias? Indeed, did Joe B's US disaster suffer because of inbuilt global-cooling bias?

IMO, you cannot 'build-in' bias; model runs start-off with real-time data?

[John Badrick]

I sense a few people on here have set themseleves up for a massive dissapointment it wouldnt surprise me in the slightest if we end up with a similar winter to last year. Ive not bought into this rubbish that joe b has been spouting to be honest he is well renound for his ramps. I guess we just have to wait and see but i dont expect a snowmaggedon

Can you back up your statement with facts, observations, data or anything concrete please

[keithlucky]

The biggest winter ramp of all time from Joe B ICE AGE COMING!!http://www.blogtalkradio.com/wiseguysofweather

[Skyraker]

Sounds like a tea leaf job to me.

Can you back up your statement with facts, observations, data or anything concrete please

[weather is fun]

Yes john what we have to bear in mind is we have had many octobers were we have had a -nao bringing a early chill only for the winter to end up been wet and mild especially in the 90s. Regarding joe laminate floori he is well know for his cold ramps he got the usa forecasts shockingly wrong last year and he seems to be at it for the uk this winter. Well in my opnion i dont buy into it. He is very similar to piers corbyn a cold mini ice age ramper. Yes i want cold and snow just as much as everyone else. Just not getting my hopes up for them to be dashed. All im saying at the moment is we cant discount a mild winter just yet as it could all go horribley wrong in the next month or so.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I sense a few people on here have set themseleves up for a massive dissapointment it wouldnt surprise me in the slightest if we end up with a similar winter to last year. Ive not bought into this rubbish that joe b has been spouting to be honest he is well renound for his ramps. I guess we just have to wait and see but i dont expect a snowmaggedon

I cant change your opinion, it is what you believe. But haven't you taken into account that we are actually not even mid-way through October yet! I actually recall October 2009 having a very autumnal set up like this one. It only takes one little kink in the jet, or a persisting blocking high to appear that we could end up with a sudden plunge in temperature. Models are all over the place at the moment, no one has a clue what winter we'll have at this stage. There's every chance we could have the coldest one on record. Only time will tell.

[Skyraker]

Joe called last winter for NW Europe correct.

Yes john what we have to bear in mind is we have had many octobers were we have had a -nao bringing a early chill only for the winter to end up been wet and mild especially in the 90s. Regarding joe laminate floori he is well know for his cold ramps he got the usa forecasts shockingly wrong last year and he seems to be at it for the uk this winter. Well in my opnion i dont buy into it. He is very similar to piers corbyn a cold mini ice age ramper. Yes i want cold and snow just as much as everyone else. Just not getting my hopes up for them to be dashed. All im saying at the moment is we cant discount a mild winter just yet as it could all go horribley wrong in the next month or so.

[keithlucky]

Joe called last winter for NW Europe correct.

Yes his NW Europe was correct if he is correct this time we in for pretty cold winter with constant northern blocking.