Winter 2012/13 - Chat

[Barry12]

The models will be better this afternoon.

[Barry12]

The 00z this morning make appalling viewing

It's not 'appaling', really.

[garbagebags]

Please use charts to make your viewpoint? and can you also explain why its appalling? cheers

Need I say any more?

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Plenty of blocking showing in models but all in the wrong place currently, this has been the theme for a while now, i must admit i am a bit iffy about any potential up and coming cold spell.

[AWD]

If you want a bit of a cheer up, some candy to look at, take a look at the 06z;

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=348&mode=1&carte=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=336&mode=0&carte=1

[syed2878]

i've alot of respect for gp than the other socled forecasters gp always explain's y he went wrong and dont hide behind sunspots or if the moon is half.

[garbagebags]

Who on earth is GP !?

[Methuselah]

Can we PLEASE get back to discussing the 'upcoming winter'? NOBODY knows who's right or wrong until March 1st!

[AWD]

Who on earth is GP !?

General Practitioner! :p

[chionomaniac]

Do I see an Ω on the GFS 6Z?

[garbagebags]

Models are keen for "something" towards the end of the month but have no idea what. I think this will be 90% down to the NAO/AO forecast and not that they are actually "seeing" anything yet?

[Methuselah]

Forgive me if I'm wrong here, but aren't the NAO/AO 'forecasts' merely derivations of the model-run?

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Do I see an Ω on the GFS 6Z?

The HP centered over Greenland strecthing all the way into the Atlantic with LP either side?

[Great Plum]

Who on earth is GP !?

Me?

Seriously, it's Glacier Point, aka Stewart Rampling - senior forecaster on netweather. Go to the front page to see his preliminary thoughts for winter...

[garbagebags]

Forgive me if I'm wrong here, but aren't the NAO/AO 'forecasts' merely derivations of the model-run?

I honestly have no idea, I kind of guessed that they were separate as aren't they more likely "trends" of a likely change in the PV rather than a data induced model of where things will be?

No idea though.

[Great Plum]

Forgive me if I'm wrong here, but aren't the NAO/AO 'forecasts' merely derivations of the model-run?

That is my understanding...

[garbagebags]

I would like to make a statement and then people can tell me if its right or wrong.

I'm thinking this winter will be anything from "normal" to "very cold"

My feelings are that everything is in place (sea temps, snow cover etc etc) However the Strat and solar activity aint quite playing ball.

So I recon, if solar activity jumps and the strat stays cold we will see a "normal" winter, whereas If sun spots dissapear and the strat goes SSW then we could see a very cold winter. Or depending on the sun and strat, anywhere in between.

Does this make any real sense?

I know most say sun spots have a lag time but looking at previous years it doesn't really seem like they do (also any solar flares only take 7 hours to reach us) maybe people say there is a lag time to ramp cold when there is increased solar activity?

Im still learning so would love to know if any of this makes sense because thats kind of the way I see this winter panning out in my head.

[Radiating Dendrite]

That is my understanding...

Correct.

The AO and NAO are not "drivers", they are merely a reflection of what the model runs are showing.

If the models show HLB in FI then the AO will be projected as negative and not positive.

[feb1991blizzard]

Some better news, not time to get the shovels out, or the champagne yet but the GEFS suite FI does offer a bit of a hint at cold via a Greenaland high setup, havent made any notes yet though so this is a brief generalisation, quite a lot go for a GH, only a handfull take the uppers between -5 and -10c, reason for this, some are brief PM incursion without the heights right the way up into the arctic, some N'ly topplers without very cold uppers, some offer cold uppers for a few days, a couple at least topple to scandi paving the way for a Brief Easterly although not sustained.

These are for London so the ones for Scotland i dare say will look much better.

http://www.meteociel...t=1&x=311&y=142

Some of the pick here.

Maybe the reason the reason that any heights are not ridging right up to the arctic on as many runs as a few days ago is perhaps that although all other signals are favourable, slowly but surely the tropospheric vortex is responding to whats going on above.

Edited November 14, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Jimmyh]

Wow the problem here is that we are still jumping on the band wagon of one or 2 runs. There are four different runs during the day. I am no expert but what we are looking for is a trend and not one where it only shows good or bad things. The November 10 & December 10 epic was only nailed on about 10days before it all happened. Far far to early for the prozac to be handed out. And in ref to the bartlett high in earlier pages. Doubt if that will happen. As all experienced forecasters are saying everything up in the air.... FI is still about +96-120 let alone 14 - 16 days away

[Mark Neal.]

6Z GFS much better than then 00Z GFS, from run to run there is swings, expect that to keep happening until we get closer to the time period.

Winter will be soon here, but will we have snow and prolonged cold as it starts?....Thats another question!

[garbagebags]

6Z GFS much better than then 00Z GFS, from run to run there is swings, expect that to keep happening until we get closer to the time period.

Winter will be soon here, but will we have snow and prolonged cold as it starts?....Thats another question!

I would say that question lies with if the Strat is willing to play ball or not, it looks like its the deciding factor between colder interludes and real locked down cold.

[Mark Neal.]

I would say that question lies with if the Strat is willing to play ball or not, it looks like its the deciding factor between colder interludes and real locked down cold.

I think we will have cold interludes for the first half of winter, with the strat being stubborn to begin. I have to say the Strat Thread is an interesting thread and I've learnt a lot the last few months from reading it.

[feb1991blizzard]

This being an eg of lowering heights over the arctic.

I am still not coming off the fence but unless some sort of warming of the strat happens soon, we may have a close but no cigar, some people say that they wont be fully on board until a potent cold spell is on all models within T72, i would not go that far as i am prepared to listen to the experts at the 16 day range though, i will be happy when GP, chiono and the Met office are all singing from the same hym sheet, i suspect that the reason the Met are going with their half baked dry cold possibility is because their improved long range model is picking up strat signals that the EC32 is not. Maybe that equals a mid lattitude high.

Edited November 14, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[johnholmes]

This being an eg of lowering heights over the arctic.

suspect that the reason the Met are going with their half baked dry cold possibility is because their improved long range model is picking up strat signals that the EC32 is not. Maybe that equals a mid lattitude high.

The Stratosphere will be having little if any effect at the time scale of their 16-30 day outlook and it certainly is not part of the model at that range.