Far North of England Regional Discussion

[Cloud 10]

Had some sleety showers here overnight and quite icy this morning with a cold wind.

[Andy_]

Haven't posted in ages! Hope you's have all had a good Xmas.

New Years day is looking sunny and chilly can't complain, thereafter we have some settled but mild weather, which is a relief, don't think I could handle any more rain. Its funny actually normally we would be raging about a Euro high but we need the dry weather.

Have been taking a little break from model output but will be popping over to the model thread more often and in particular the stratosphere thread to see how this potential SSW will pan out, could be interesting!

[Cloud 10]

Happy new year everyone!

A chilly start to 2013 here with a touch of frost.

[peterf]

11.9c out there,just aint right lol.

[Coast]

What's this little blue cross I can start to see appearing then next week????? :unsure:

[Snowstorm1]

What's this little blue cross I can start to see appearing then next week?????

SNOW or as the scottish say SNAW

[damianslaw]

Hoping this thread will start to become more active in the coming days as we loose this wretched mild weather which in my view has long outstayed its welcome, it just doesn't feel right - more like mid-late March than early January. Today was another gloom ridden day with no sunshine, indeed we haven't see any sunshine yet this new year - making for a very dismal depressing dark feel to things, however, I am pleased we have lost the rain.

Looking forward to some much needed sunshine next week after what looks like another 3 days of gloom, and the return of nightime frosts, the last air frost here was on the 14th December.. we had a similiar barren spell of frost last winter between 19 Dec and 13 January.

The fells are preety much snowless now - haven't done a proper winter walk yet this season..but there is a good 2 months left of proper winter still, and March can be every bit as snowy as January up in the fells.

[NickR]

Any thoughts on what the potential is for the NE with the cold synoptics currently on offer for the next 5-15 days?

[Andy_]

Any thoughts on what the potential is for the NE with the cold synoptics currently on offer for the next 5-15 days?

Well according to the latest GFS we could see a band of snow moving down from the north on Sunday, but that could easily disappear on the next run. All the major models have decent cold in place on Sunday though so I think that'll be the one to watch.

At least today is the last of the mild dull weather, be nice to get a bit sunshine tomorrow

[NickR]

ATM it looks to me like it'll be the south that gets it!

[Isolated Frost]

Nick! It is completely different to that horrible Feb 2012 spell.. that was sourced from polar continental air, with the bulk of the cold in mainland Europe, the progression from the NWP look much more Nov 2010 style (not to say it will be!!)... cold NE/ENE sourced winds after the original booting on the weekend... bulk of the cold in southern Scandi- the sweet spot as many would say

The GFS would be pretty snowy here, maybe some light snow on the wknd, at times heavier, with Monday onwards being really cold and with a high likelyhood of snow shrs

UKMO would develop into something similar if not better

ECM is a dream... no comment!

[NickR]

Nick! It is completely different to that horrible Feb 2012 spell.. that was sourced from polar continental air, with the bulk of the cold in mainland Europe, the progression from the NWP look much more Nov 2010 style (not to say it will be!!)... cold NE/ENE sourced winds after the original booting on the weekend... bulk of the cold in southern Scandi- the sweet spot as many would say

The GFS would be pretty snowy here, maybe some light snow on the wknd, at times heavier, with Monday onwards being really cold and with a high likelyhood of snow shrs

UKMO would develop into something similar if not better

ECM is a dream... no comment!

Yes... although GFS looks best for frontal snow SW and S... the ECM is quite something! Not sure if we'd get more than the SE, but by gum there would be some heavy convective stuff!... and then that little low running down the N sea later on!

[Isolated Frost]

Yes... although GFS looks best for frontal snow SW and S... the ECM is quite something! Not sure if we'd get more than the SE, but by gum there would be some heavy convective stuff!... and then that little low running down the N sea later on!

EC solution is fun but it is v extreme- I'd love the GFS solution as well though, plenty of cold and snow from the N and E.. Plenty to come yet though, at least we know its definitely turning colder, perhaps quite a seismic change from recent anomaly.

[Summer Sun]

The BBC's longer range forecast is now on board with light snow forecast for Sunday in Darlington

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2651513?day=4

Click on Further ahead

Edited January 8, 2013 by Gavin.

[damianslaw]

I sound like a broken record - another cloud fest of a day, this is becoming very depressing now, not one glimpse of sunshine so far this year.. I had hoped tomorrow would deliver some welcome sun, but fear we could be plagued by fog which if it lifts will simply mean cloud, Thursday looks similiar and Friday could still be cloudy if the front takes time to clear, which would mean 11 consecutive days with no sunshine, indeed I can't remember when we last saw a glimpse of sun perhaps on the 30th for a couple of hours.

[Isolated Frost]

Upper low moves NE for Friday/Saturday on latest GFS- snow for East Anglia/East Midlands up to SE Scotland, instead of SE England up to N Yorkshire as on 12z solution. A boost for the NE, but hopefully no further north-ward upgrades!

[Andy_]

First wave of cold for this weekend looks nailed when viewing the ensembles, what comes after is looking absolutely epic at the moment.

Uhoh i'm getting that excitement again... Please don't let today be a cruel joke!

[NickR]

Any regular updates from those who are good at analysing the charts on what the models would give for our region are gratefully received!

[Cloud 10]

Any regular updates from those who are good at analysing the charts on what the models would give for our region are gratefully received!

[Snowmaggedon]

"Some fascinating analysis from UKMO for weekend. Snow probability increasing later Sat for places such as Birmingham etc, but heavy rain event to south, until retreat of rear-edge into early Sun offers wintry potential further south. However, UKMO focus firmly on developments into Mon with potential for "significant snow event" into W Country and environs. UKMO GM heavily modified to EC for this stage: raw GM and MOGREPS track of low to E/N not favoured solution. Confidence re Mon still too low for any early warning."

Ian Fergusson has just posted that on the Model Discussion Thread.

No mention of NE Eng.

[NickR]

"Some fascinating analysis from UKMO for weekend. Snow probability increasing later Sat for places such as Birmingham etc, but heavy rain event to south, until retreat of rear-edge into early Sun offers wintry potential further south. However, UKMO focus firmly on developments into Mon with potential for "significant snow event" into W Country and environs. UKMO GM heavily modified to EC for this stage: raw GM and MOGREPS track of low to E/N not favoured solution. Confidence re Mon still too low for any early warning."

Ian Fergusson has just posted that on the Model Discussion Thread.

No mention of NE Eng.

But that's because his area of focus is the W Country... I've rarely seen him say much about the N.

[Andy_]

ECM looking good for our region this morning with snow feasible on every frame starting this Saturday,

GFS is following what some of it's ensembles were showing last night, but if anything this morning the 0Z ensembles are trending cooler.

UKMO still looks pretty decent too.

[Snowmaggedon]

But that's because his area of focus is the W Country... I've rarely seen him say much about the N.

Sorry, I never really read his post properly. It actually says that the chances of snow have increased for those North of Birmingham, so it's all looking good

[Isolated Frost]

Latest GFS suite has precip hugging the NE coast from h60 to h120- Saturday 0z to Monday 12z. Probably deliver wintry shrs Saturday, snow shrs Sunday, potentially quite heavy before a cold, dry day on Monday. After that, it's all to play for.

Slight accumulations very much possible this wknd- GFS would then give us nothing more, the ECM would give us so much more and the UKMO is the realistic halfway house.

[NickR]

Latest GFS suite has precip hugging the NE coast from h60 to h120- Saturday 0z to Monday 12z. Probably deliver wintry shrs Saturday, snow shrs Sunday, potentially quite heavy before a cold, dry day on Monday. After that, it's all to play for.

Slight accumulations very much possible this wknd- GFS would then give us nothing more, the ECM would give us so much more and the UKMO is the realistic halfway house.

What would the ECM 12z give for us?

Again, to my untrained eye the real fun and games look like being for the [spit, spit] South... but am I wrong?