Far North of England Regional Discussion

[Continental Climate]

Just checked out the look north weather forecast and very underwhelming for our region has to be said!! Hopefully a trough or two might get caught up in the easterly flow but with -8 uppers you would expect a bit more than isolated flurries.

[NickR]

Just checked out the look north weather forecast and very underwhelming for our region has to be said!! Hopefully a trough or two might get caught up in the easterly flow but with -8 uppers you would expect a bit more than isolated flurries.

How far out did they go?

Our local forecast is never very good and is very conservative.

[Continental Climate]

Briefly mentioned sat and sunday toward the end not much snow at all really i dont believe it http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/news/newsid_7760000/7760853.stm

[damianslaw]

The BBC and Fax charts show the weak front due to cross the country on Friday retreating back westwards later Saturday into Sunday which could mean a peppering or light dusting of snow by Sunday morning. Sunday more generally could deliver some heavy snow showers to eastern parts of the region, but not expecting much this side of the Pennines.

My interest lies with the shortwave feature progged to influence things on Monday, this could bring a more organised spell of snow depending on its track, with eastern parts once again more likely to be influenced by it.

[Andy_]

Another day another drama in the models, at least we can say its going to snow in 'the far north' this weekend, what comes after is still questionable, viewing the 12Z gfs ensembles (cba to wait until midnight for the 18's), a majority bunch of ensembles stay cold. On this occasion i think the GFS op will fall into line with its ensembles (surely?)

Edited January 9, 2013 by Andy.

[Andy_]

North East England

Snow

Issued at:1205 on Thu 10 Jan 2013

Valid from:1800 on Sat 12 Jan 2013

Valid to:1200 on Sun 13 Jan 2013

Turning colder this weekend with snow showers likely to affect eastern coastal counties. Amounts of snow are uncertain and are likely to be highly variable with some places seeing very little. However, 5-10 cm could accumulate locally, particularly over hills, with icy surfaces an additional hazard.

The public should be aware of the potential for localised disruption to travel.

Weather warning for eastern coastal counties out Saturday and Sunday

http://www.metoffice...-1.44&lat=54.63

Edited January 10, 2013 by Andy.

[NickR]

Updates anyone? Looks increasingly like blizzards down south next week while we get scraps.

[Andy_]

Updates anyone? Looks increasingly like blizzards down south next week while we get scraps.

Well if it went down ECM Avenue we might not get the frontal snow the south would get, but there'd be a hell of a lot of convection off the north sea I would imagine

[Cloud 10]

Could be a prolonged spell of cold weather beginning on saturday as colder upper

air and lowering dew-points spread slowly in from the east,so any showers will become

increasingly wintry as the day progresses.

Lots of uncertainty beyond the weekend,but i think it will stay cold up in

the north of the UK for some considerable time.

[damianslaw]

Sunday should deliver some hefty snow showers along eastern coastal parts which could easily penetrate some way inland thanks to the NE/E flow. Us in Cumbria are likely to see nothing - but will hold onto frosty conditions so at least we should have a 'white scene'. However, I don't like the idea of a very cold spell with no snow on the fells, currently they are green and it always doesn't seem right when it is freezing cold but there is no snow about. However, Monday should see some snow for the fells thanks to whatever happens to the shortwave and possibly we might see some snow as well. Its just good to be talking about snow and frost prospects after 4 weeks of endless mild dross.

[Isolated Frost]

132-192 on the EC would be SO snowy here!!

Sunday looking sexy, v v sexy...

[Cloud 10]

It's been a cold, drizzly manky sort of day here today and tomorrow looks similar,although

i find these conditions often come just before a cold spell.

[Andy_]

Interesting front being modelled on the GFS again for Monday, this time it sticks around for a good few hours for most of the region, could give quite the dumping!

[Snowmaggedon]

Interesting front being modelled on the GFS again for Monday, this time it sticks around for a good few hours for most of the region, could give quite the dumping!

So can we expect the Met Office to put in place a weather warning in place for Monday?

[Andy_]

So can we expect the Met Office to put in place a weather warning in place for Monday?

They have the front marked on their FAX chart too, so if it isn't dropped within the next day or so I should think they would have to warn the public yes

[peterf]

wrong thread

Edited January 10, 2013 by peterf

[Isolated Frost]

Hmm

Anyway, southern areas look to be initially affected most, with high ground in the midlands, and Lincolnshire/E Anglia the hot spots for Saturday/Sunday.. Monday however looks v interesting after Sunday's convective (potential) fun. After that, the EC and GFS is pretty snowy for us, with the UKMO eventually becoming quite snowy after d6.

[Isolated Frost]

Latest hi-res EC expectations for Fri and Sat... quite cold.

[Geordiesnow]

I don't think Sunday will be as much fun as people think now, models have kinda backed away from easterly flow for our part of the region it would appear sadly, I imagine any flow will be very slack but if theres enough of an easterly drift and if there is enough PPN in the North Sea, then any snow showers could be quite prolonged(over 30mins) but I don't think there will be huge amounts anyways going by the GFS PPN charts and the BBC graphics.

Perhaps the best time will be Saturday evening into Sunday morning aslong it does not downgrade any further!

[peterf]

I don't think Sunday will be as much fun as people think now, models have kinda backed away from easterly flow for our part of the region it would appear sadly, I imagine any flow will be very slack but if theres enough of an easterly drift and if there is enough PPN in the North Sea, then any snow showers could be quite prolonged(over 30mins) but I don't think there will be huge amounts anyways going by the GFS PPN charts and the BBC graphics.

Perhaps the best time will be Saturday evening into Sunday morning aslong it does not downgrade any further!

youlv'e never changed in all the years iv'e been on here.why so negative in your daily outlook?

yet to see a positive excited post from you in over 6 year.

[Isolated Frost]

EC 120 highlights the perfect solution for us in the NE. 144 and 168 would be drier (144 would be still snowy) and then a mild regime pulls in- but this a beaut. A slack NE flow with -8c uppers and an upper low in the southern North Sea. Snow showers galore.

Plenty of outcomes likely to be thrown out by the NWP. For now though, the wknd looks very cold and potentially quite wintry- starting today.

Met office going for mod-heavy snow for Durham from 18z Saturday to 06z Sunday and plenty of intermittent snow on Monday.

[Andy_]

Next warning already out for Monday

North East England

Snow

Issued at:1243 on Fri 11 Jan 2013

Valid from:0005 on Mon 14 Jan 2013

Valid to:2359 on Mon 14 Jan 2013

An area of rain, sleet and hill snow spreading into northwestern Scotland by early Monday is expected to turn increasingly to snow to low levels as it moves southeastwards through the day. Some significant accumulations of around 5 cm of snow are likely over low ground with perhaps 10 cm or more over higher ground.

Icy surfaces will be an additional hazard, particularly during Monday morning.

The public should be aware of the risk of disruption to travel.

So we have potential accumulating snow over Saturday night into Sunday, and then the frontal event Monday. First cold snap is looking good!

Edited January 11, 2013 by Andy.

[Geordiesnow]

youlv'e never changed in all the years iv'e been on here.why so negative in your daily outlook?

yet to see a positive excited post from you in over 6 year.

Maybe deep down, I am a secret mild ramper but maybe my positivity in your eyes is about as rare as an on topic post made by you in the model thread but I have kept quiet on that one.

The ECM 120 hour chart does excite me though, certainly the chance of heavy snow showers and the ECM have been more bullish about an easterly flow than the other models for Tuesday into Wednesday, one is hoping it maintains its trend in the coming few days.

[NickR]

Maybe deep down, I am a secret mild ramper but maybe my positivity in your eyes is about as rare as an on topic post made by you in the model thread but I have kept quiet on that one.

The ECM 120 hour chart does excite me though, certainly the chance of heavy snow showers and the ECM have been more bullish about an easterly flow than the other models for Tuesday into Wednesday, one is hoping it maintains its trend in the coming few days.

What's your take on Monday's band? Greater accumulations down Mids/South but we should still see some?

[NickR]

PLEASE let GFS 12z Mon/Tues verify! The 2nd low just stalls over us... how much would that give us???