Far North of England Regional Discussion

[Snowmaggedon]

Looks like another snow event on Tuesday as well as Monday, getting excited now!

[Snowmaggedon]

It looks like we could expect major disruption to the region next week

[Geordiesnow]

What's your take on Monday's band? Greater accumulations down Mids/South but we should still see some?

Depends how well it crosses the Pennines but we could well see some decent snowfall from it for sure, a little marginal but uppers of around -5 with on shore winds you would imagine will be cold enough for falling snow!

Its a slight shame the GFS12Z has downgraded the easterly drift even more, but as I said in the model thread, I would happily sacrafice that for Monday's potential fun and games!

Although we await this afternoon ECM run, all 3 of the big guns are now hinting at some sort of better more instability easterly flow for Tuesday but this is still some way off at the moment, no doubt the details will change an awful lot between now and then.

[Isolated Frost]

Saturday into Sunday still looks V ripe for some snow shrs on eastern coasts (mainly Sat 18z to Sun 09z). Plentiful cold around that timerange as well-

Monday looks very snowy for here on the GFS 12z.. but it's ALL subject to change- we keep on the right side of the shortwave though, and the introduction of a SW/S wind will be perfect for Monday evening- it looks transient but bloody heavy-

UKMO and GFS looks superb for some V heavy snow shrs from the E/NE come Tuesday evening and Wednesday, but it is a long time away in times of such uncertainty.

One thing we can be sure of, it's going to be bloody cold!

[Summer Sun]

We could have 20cm 7 inches of snow by this time next week!

Edited January 11, 2013 by Gavin.

[snow_mad_09]

Now that is a ramp of a chart .

Looking good for the North East as always. Are we officially the snow capital of England?

[Snowmaggedon]

Now that is a ramp of a chart .

Looking good for the North East as always. Are we officially the snow capital of England?

We must be! Bring it on!

[P-M]

We could have 20cm 7 inches of snow by this time next week!

Factor in the unstable convective easterlies and we could be seeing more as thes can't be modelled in to the picture!

[Alex95]

This upcoming spell looks very unpredictable to me - hopefully some decent snow to come, but its not a straightforward sunshine and snow showers spell which would almost guarantee heavy snow in the NE. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few cm by Sunday morning though if the convection is able to get going, despite the slack flow.

[Snowmaggedon]

We could have 20cm 7 inches of snow by this time next week!

Presumably you'd have to be living quite high up to get that sort of depth? Or does this include all areas

[stormchaser1]

Good evening everyone

[Summer Sun]

Presumably you'd have to be living quite high up to get that sort of depth? Or does this include all areas

A 2010 style event would deliver high totals to most areas in Darlington we got 25cm including 7cm in one night!

[Andy_]

I always miss the good GFS runs, as if Monday's front wasn't good enough it's decent to chuck another one our way for Tuesday!

Now that is a ramp of a chart .

Looking good for the North East as always. Are we officially the snow capital of England?

I always think we end up getting the most in England 9 times out of 10, as we're liable to fronts from the west and showers and troughs from the east!

[Dandy]

A 2010 style event would deliver high totals to most areas in Darlington we got 25cm including 7cm in one night!

Aycliife would shut down...lol

[Snowmaggedon]

A 2010 style event would deliver high totals to most areas in Darlington we got 25cm including 7cm in one night!

Yes that was also the case in Teesside. Do you reckon we could come close to those totals this week? It appears as if we could see some significant accumulations this week, even though it appears to have very little to do with the SSW

[Cloud 10]

Well,here we go again.

The front currently sat just of the East coast is the dividing line between this chilly damp

air and the colder drier air over the eastern North Sea.

Notice the much lower dew-points out east.

All change by this time tomorrow though as the colder upper air has spread over the region,

along with the lower dew-points,so any ppn will be wintry.

Let the games begin!

[Isolated Frost]

Nothing better than watching the North Sea get into gear, and the cold north-easterlies/easterlies flow across it. Here's hoping this is the start of something really nice.

[Rollo]

Hi IF, what I enjoy is seeing the CuNims heading inland prior (we hope) to a good dumping. looks like we are in for a few interesting days weather.

[Summer Sun]

Yes that was also the case in Teesside. Do you reckon we could come close to those totals this week? It appears as if we could see some significant accumulations this week, even though it appears to have very little to do with the SSW

Monday should see the first snow event with another on Tuesday and Wednesday according to GFS 12z so those totals are possible yes general range I'd say is 10cm to 20cm generally with 15cm to 25cm on higher ground NY Moors as an example

[Cloud 10]

Hi IF, what I enjoy is seeing the CuNims heading inland prior (we hope) to a good dumping. looks like we are in for a few interesting days weather.

Amen to that.

[Geordiesnow]

I think tomorrow could be a messy day skies wise because even though the air will be a bit unstable, thicknesses are a little high(although low enough for convective weather) and so is air pressure albeit the centre of the high is in Norway! Not really sure what to expect tomorrow, I think it be one of those days that could start rather slow and uninspiring but during the day we may see snow showers coming in off the North Sea.

Its a bit of ashame the easterly flow is not a little stronger and longer lasting but there is a small window in there, don't expect a repeat of the 5th December as thicknesses and pressure was lower but who knows!

I think if the 2nd easterly occurs though, then expect scenes like that photo above.

[Isolated Frost]

Always remember the orange clouds that glow when the heavier convective snow shrs come in from the NE at night (late Nov 2010 had a lot of this).

Right, time for mesoscale snow forecasting time...

Saturday 00z

Comparison-

NMM -5c 850s @ Durham, 1295dm, 1016mb, SSE flow

GFS -4c 850s @ Durham, 1300dm, 1016mb, SSE flow

NAE -5c 850s @ Durham, 1300dm, 1016mb, SSE flow (0c 950s)

NMM looking at a cold SSE flow early morning- nothing conductive to snow apart from above 250m.. not much lingering precip around either

GFS and NAE looking v similar

Saturday 12z

Comparison-

NMM -7c 850s @ Durham, 1290dm, 1018dm, SE flow

GFS -7c 850s @ Durham, 1290dm, 1017dm, SE flow

NAE -7c 850s @ Durham, 1290dm, 1017dm, SE flow (-1c 950s)

The flow then turns SE'ly at sea level- though is increasing northward facing at higher levels and this will promote some shower movement from the NE/E-

The flow at uppers of that sort should promote some fresh convection-

sub -34c 500mb air popping around..

Dewpoints eventually pulling toward 0c, some mild sector in there- looks suspect but very possible in the flow... shouldn't interfere however

GFS keeps a strong upper humidity profile bubbling in the eastern North Sea

minimal wind shear in contact with the flow- less than a 60 degree difference.. aloft some hefty CAA and slack (slackkkk) flow- flurries and light snow very likely in a flow with sub 1290dm air-

Sunday 00z

Comparison-

NMM -8c 850s @ Durham, 1285dm, 1021mb, E flow

GFS -8c 850s @ Durham, 1290dm, 1021mb, E flow

NAE -9c 850s @ Durham, 1285dm, 1021mb, E flow

-this is the important timeframe- inbetween Sat 18z and Sun 06z, this is the peak generally with the perfect wind flow at the surface- dew points are quite superb

we also see the GFS at it's best, with sub -30c air above our roofs, this is definitely commendable stuff..

messy flows- but generally the upper air low is nearby and conductive to precipitation throughout the north sea-

not all too much bubbling up but some real strong squalls in there-

probably a few snow shrs here and there tomorrow evening, but the chance of something larger as we move through the night- the coldest upper air arrives around then, and favourable wind shear and upper air dynamics co-exist this as the signal for stronger precip grows

I'd do the Sunday 12z predictions but my arms are knackered- I'll do them later

hope this helped

Edited January 11, 2013 by Isolated Frost
sorry for the mammoth images!!

[Rollo]

Amen to that.

nice picture Cloud.

[Geordiesnow]

Another slight downgrade on the easterly drift for the weekend by the GFS on this run, the window of (snow) shower opportunity is diminishing if this model is right! It seems to be progging the low pressure system being slightly further East than first thought although I guess we'll soon see won't we.

Also its important these eastwards movements stop occuring so we don't get less cold air flooding West therefore making Monday's event more marginal. This is the 3rd GFS run in a row which has the cold not as far south and west as the previous run.

Anyways, lets hope the rest of the run delivers though!

[Isolated Frost]

Another slight downgrade on the easterly drift for the weekend by the GFS on this run, the window of (snow) shower opportunity is diminishing if this model is right! It seems to be progging the low pressure system being slightly further East than first thought although I guess we'll soon see won't we.

Also its important these eastwards movements stop occuring so we don't get less cold air flooding West therefore making Monday's event more marginal. This is the 3rd GFS run in a row which has the cold not as far south and west as the previous run.

Anyways, lets hope the rest of the run delivers though!

Looks like 1-2mb lower pressure accompanied by 1-2c higher 850s for Sunday- nothing at all wrong with that.