Yorkshire and Northern Lincs Regional Thread

[Barry12]

According to the GFS Snow risk chart there could be snow Saturday

More possible snow on Monday

High chance of snow Monday rush hour.

Into monday evening

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

The NAE shows this for lunchtime Saturday;

Potential for some snow showers coming in from the East coast which seems to tie in with the METO warnings that are out for the Eastern side of our region between Saturday evening and Sunday lunchtime. The METO warning mentions the risk of up to 5-10cms during this timeframe, but whether anywhere sees as much as that is open to question. North York Moors looks favourable at the moment.

For those of us more inland, the potential for snow may not look great at the moment, but in my experience, once the proper cold arrives (on track for Saturday), snow opportunities could pop up from nowhere at short notice. I'm not saying that will definitely happen this time, but the synoptics certainly look promising, particularly from Monday onwards at present.

Here's hoping....

[Barry12]

No idea what the GFS Snow risk bases its forecasts on, but if they were correct it would be a very snowy weekend, the NAE looks a lot more realistic though.

Edited January 10, 2013 by Barry95

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

No idea what the GFS Snow risk bases its forecasts on, but if they were correct it would be a very snowy weekend, the NAE looks a lot more realistic though.

Yes although not perfect, I would always have more confidence in the NAE output than the GFS at that range. I think it runs at a higher resolution. That band of snow moving South across our region on Monday is starting to grab my attention however.

There could well be some disruption to the Monday evening rush hour if that pans out as modelled.

[LeeSnowFan]

I tweeted Matt Hugo tonight and asked about snow for south yorkshire and got this response "@MrLeeOT - Tomorrow, might be some flurries high ground, but then especially Sat into Sun, snow showers coming in off the North Sea."

[Aaron]

Snow shown here for Monday by MetO.

[sunny scunny]

Excellent charts tonight that's for sure, and hopefully we will all get some snow in the coming days guys

[Aaron]

hopefully GFS will remain consistent with the snow signal for Monday, they're too far out to be taken seriously at the moment. Under 72 hours and I'll get a little bit excited. I'll be well and truly chuffed if it's actually snowing on the 14th/15th!

Edited January 10, 2013 by Aaron

[sunny scunny]

Even if we don't see snow i'll be happy with very low temps overnight, and temps barely above freezing during the day.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

I tweeted Matt Hugo tonight and asked about snow for south yorkshire and got this response "@MrLeeOT - Tomorrow, might be some flurries high ground, but then especially Sat into Sun, snow showers coming in off the North Sea."

Well given that the NAE has now updated to show this Saturday evening;

That seems like a fairly good forecast. It certainly shows the risk of some snow showers reaching Pennine areas and I suspect the signal for snow will be more marked nearer the event given the forecast 850s for that period.

Edited January 10, 2013 by Kentish Snowman

[Craigers]

Well after the gfs 18z back tracking again I am more confident us folk are in for fun and games with snow and radar

[sunny scunny]

Well after the gfs 18z back tracking again I am more confident us folk are in for fun and games with snow and radar

Indeed it could be a very good cold,snowy spell coming up, and were not talking deep FI for a change either

[Love Snow]

Fantastic viewing in the model thread learning more everyday !! Lets hope yorkshire does well out of this of course nothing is nailed on yet but I can dream!

[Aaron]

Indeed it could be a very good cold,snowy spell coming up, and were not talking deep FI for a change either

I see people in the West are peeing themselves with excitement over snowmaggedon charts in FI at 160 hours+

[sunny scunny]

Im just checking the GFS ensemble mean for the 18z, and it's a lot better than the 12z with the colder air further west as expected. Things are looking great tonight.

[Craigers]

Indeed it could be a very good cold,snowy spell coming up, and were not talking deep FI for a change either

Fantastic viewing in the model thread learning more everyday !! Lets hope yorkshire does well out of this of course nothing is nailed on yet but I can dream!

I see people in the West are peeing themselves with excitement over snowmaggedon charts in FI at 160 hours+

All this is getting me excited for one main reason that 2010 end of november into december was such a memorable event when many received a foot of snow!

This is how easily yorkshire can get a good dumping!

From the archives! Check this bad boy! 30th November 2010!!!!!

Just look at that streamer! I feel this could easily setup next week if the ecm verified!

Edited January 10, 2013 by Craigers

[Aaron]

I'll take a repeat of that - not quite a foot here, but 25 - 28cm depending on the surface, while parts of Leeds got a foot and more. One thing I'd love to see is a repeat of the January 1995 snowstorm which dumped over 40cm here in a matter of hours, caused chaos, caused by a stalling front/low pressure.

Edited January 10, 2013 by Aaron

[sunny scunny]

Well considering how poor the winter has been so far, i'll be happy just to see some snow on the ground in the coming days lol.

yes please

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=6&mode=0&carte=0

Edited January 10, 2013 by sunny scunny

[Mark James]

I can't really read all the charts that have been posted (I really should start to learn!) but whats the chances of snow for South Lincolnshire over the weekend?

[Just Before Dawn]

I can't really read all the charts that have been posted (I really should start to learn!) but whats the chances of snow for South Lincolnshire over the weekend?

Well, there's a chance, which is a start this winter. 18z GFS has a fairly brisk ESE flow by 3pm saturday, so that's good. With showers though, it's always going to be pot luck to a degree.

[Aaron]

00z looks much better for snow in our region next week*..

Temps at or below freezing..

Uppers around -4C, good enough for frontal snowfall, even -2C would suffice if the precipitation is heavy enough.

Dew points generally below freezing east of the Pennines

After the frontal snowfall has cleared, temperatures would look set to fall, perhaps staying below freezing throughout the next day. Fingers crossed for something exciting, and hopefully something lasting longer than 24 hours!

*snow is indicated by the white lines, if anyone is unsure.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Aaron

[sparky1972]

woke up, looked at met office site and they say a few days of at times light snow, then the weatheroutlook, no signs of snow but plenty of rain forecast over the next 16 days, then the model thread on here and oh dear, things certainly gone downhill from last night, much doom and gloom in there this morning, oh well, so close but yet so far. enjoy whatever snow that might come as i fear it wont be around for long

[Snowday]

I would love this snow to make it this far inland, but so many times I've been disappointed as the snow showers have faded out before they've got here from the East, or come against the Pennines and been swallowed up from the west/northwest. I'm not getting my hopes up this time.

[Love Snow]

@lisaweather: Have a look at the radar picture http://t.co/9gGYLrGe Some of this over the Pennines is falling as sonw at the mo as temps are 0C or below

[Love Snow]

woke up, looked at met office site and they say a few days of at times light snow, then the weatheroutlook, no signs of snow but plenty of rain forecast over the next 16 days, then the model thread on here and oh dear, things certainly gone downhill from last night, much doom and gloom in there this morning, oh well, so close but yet so far. enjoy whatever snow that might come as i fear it wont be around for long

Wouldn't be to down yet plenty of changes on the way GP did say a slight warn up then a reload of the cold !!!

Edited January 11, 2013 by Love Snow