The Midlands Regional Winter Discussion

[MKN]

About 330

[Just Before Dawn]

It always makes me smile when I see people gettting all flustered in the models discussion thread because any cold snap doesn't last a month, I would happily take a decent snow event on Monday or wednesday even if it doesn't last any longer than a day. Hopefully Nottingham will see something snow-wise next week.

Shame the expected snow this weekend hasn't materialised for us in the East Midlands, far too North for tomorrows potential snow threat which has drifted further south by the day and too far inland for the snow showers coming off the North Sea on sunday

Well, setting aside the fact that Lincolnshire is in the East Midlands.......

I wouldn't be so sure that showers wouldn't penetrate as far inland as Leicestershire and East Notts on Sunday. The Met O clearly think it's a possibility. Look at their Yellow warning area for snow on Sunday. It includes all of Notts and much of Derbyshire. This is supported by the NAE chart Chris posted above, which is High-res and really the only one worth looking at for the weekend ppn now - that shows snow well into the east mids.

Of course, as is always the case with convective showers, it's a bit hit and miss as to who gets them and who doesn't.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Just Before Dawn

[XENA]

I was just going to post that NAE chart.. its looking good for some Easterly showers. We did well in 2010 from showers coming inland (see my avatar) :-)

[Ryan05]

Well, setting aside the fact that Lincolnshire is in the East Midlands.......

LOL yes sorry Lincolnshire should have really said Notts, you may indeed be right, by writing it off now though anything that comes Nottinghams way on Sunday will be a bonus to the expected snow event monday evening,

[Just Before Dawn]

LOL yes sorry Lincolnshire should have really said Notts, you may indeed be right, by writing it off now though anything that comes Nottinghams way on Sunday will be a bonus to the expected snow event monday evening,

Very wise!

I think you might be pleasantly surprised on Sunday though.

[Luke]

Ah ok thanks. It's just that everyone stopped mentioning Saturday at all. Midlands Today mentioning significant snowfall on Monday.

[Just Before Dawn]

Look at the Iso Bars for 6am Sunday , that looks perfect direction for Leicestershire , Not sure about Nottingham though .

You have the advantage (like South Notts) of not having much high ground to your east, so showers, even on a fairly slack flow, if convection is potent enough, have not much to traverse to penetrate well into Leicestershire - that happened in 96 I seem to remember. The further north you go, the more of a challenge it is to get snow on a slack flow, because you start to get a bit of high ground between you and the sea. Given that the flow on this NAE chart suggests a slightly N of due east direction, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Met O warnings on Sunday for the east coast adjusted south slightly to include parts of Leicestershire and places like Peterborough and N Northants.

[Mark James]

So the chance of snow in Southern Lincolnshire for saturday evening/sunday has gone now?

[syed2878]

afternoon peeps. Cuppall of days ago netweather's snow risk charts had brum at 90percent then last night it was down to 13percent, personally cant c any snow tomorrow it's always the way. We mistout in dec and i think will misout tomorrow too. Birmingham aston.

[Stour7]

I know it's in fantasy land but 20mm of rain on Wednesday uppers of -2 would that fall as snow?

[Staffordshire]

Snow chances shifted to wednesday now? If that comes off looking at a cm or two at most nothing to write home about though

excuse me? what model are you looking at?!

[cold stoke]

I think we will all get some snow by Wednesday . Monday is the best day for stoke

[Turnedoutniceagain]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/em/em_forecast_warnings.html?day=4

That's a big change in position from the METO since this morning !!

[Ryan05]

well the latest runs, show snow potential for us in the East for Sunday and serious snow for many in the Midlands monday into tuesday. Fingers crossed

[MKN]

Looks like the theme of recent months is back next week. One deluge after another

jus one difference its Of SNOW!! Waheyyy

Edited January 11, 2013 by SnowTornado

[Bolton67]

Looking good..... wonder if some part of the mids could be the sweet spot?

[Shezale coventry]

Whats happend to the snow for midweek

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx7;page=6;ct=~CV5;sess=#forecast

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Whats happend to the snow for midweek

http://www.netweathe...;sess=#forecast

Not updated yet

[azores92]

i think we need to stay grounded here. as exciting as the prospect may seem, until maybe 24 hours (or maybe less) before the snow falls anything can happen. its so difficult especially as the best snow events are often marginal. dont be surprised if a number of people get sleet or rain to lower levels(especially telford and the wrekin... it never snows there! ) and keep the prozac near just incase! for me im expecting rain from whatever falls next week.... but im cautiously optimistic we'll get a little snow at least

[conor123]

Monday remains questionable for this far west, hoping the front edges further west with each run or it's going to be very borderline with 850hPa's of -3 crossing us.

It's rather nippy out there this evening in the fog, today actually started gloriously sunny and the fog thickened through the day, I wouldn't be surprised if some of the higher areas like Leek/Buxton see some wintriness tonight as the front moves east.

Edited January 11, 2013 by conor123

[Scoutsy]

Well, I've put my location in my sig, and hope everyone else does until they turn the location/viewing figures back on, as it helps a lot to know where people are. A couple of weeks ago I was worried that I'd wasted good money on winter tyres. I'm feeling a little happier about having them now. I wouldn't be surprised to see the odd light flake or two over the weekend, but if we're going to have an event here in Birmingham it looks like Monday is our best bet atm. Unfortunately we all know how quickly the outlook can change.

[Gord]

Wow, can't keep up and nothing has even happened yet!

So over the past couple of days, we 've lost our chance for snow tomorrow but have one for Monday instead. Forecasting snow can be so tricky. I won't get excited about Monday's snow until it's in Monday morning's forecasts...and even then...

BUT...then there are further chances after that so it really is looking good! We're normally late to join in with any snow during cold spells in the West Midlands...but we get there in the end, (where I live anyway).

One day at a time I reckon.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Gord

[tom_f123]

Midlands thread seems pretty dead lately, i remember a few years back when it would always be one of the busiest when a cold spell was on the cards.

Anyway, nice upgrades from the models today, plenty of chances for some significant snow next week, Monday onward, a couple of days away yet until we know the exact details.

Monday could bring 5-10cm quite widespread, perhaps up to 15cm over higher ground. Then another band of snow working southwards overnight into Tuesday also.

Perhaps a couple of cm for the south midlands tomorrow.

[wednesburybaz]

if you look at bbcs weather they play down the snow chance for monday although i never take bbc for gospel

in fact theyre most inaccuate i think

[Adzyy]

As good as it looks for Monday, I'm staying on the fence. Considering the run up to Saturday and how I got excited for that and now it's going to be boring nothingness here.

Either way, fingers crossed. (Rugby)