Winter Model Discussion - 12/01/13 06z Onwards

[UV-RAY]

Okie dokie:

Second at 12z

Joint first at 0z

The most surprising thing for me there is the Indian model, which is verifying better at 0z then the GEM, and is 0.002 off the GFS!!

SK

Thanks SK, point taken.

[ChartViewer]

GEM T144 is amazing

[Timmytour]

Well, given the choice (a false choice, I know) between the GFS and UKMO models, I'd put my money on the UKMO...Not because I like snow and blizzards and that's what the UKMO shows, but because it's made for UK/European climes, and Brits & Europeans should be more in-tune with our conditions...

I don't really understand this...surely a lot of the weather conditions we receive rely, primarily, on the upstream conditions along the east coast of the USA? I don't think you can "localise" weather as such, given that it's all interconnected.

I think there's a little bit to both of them....probably why the actual weather that we end up with much of the time turns out to be a compromise of what they modelled

[MR EXTREMES]

I don't, once again the UKMO has changed towards the GFS just as it did in DEC, what a joke of a model I have no faith in it what so ever anymore

i gotta laugh is your name victor meldrew really ?

there all very good models in there own right and that was december this is now more teleconnective work in play here although im still waiting for the main coarse.

[Long haul to mild]

GEM T144 is amazing

It's a great chart for sure, but the difference between that and the UKMO at that point is staggering!

[Frosty.]

Still think that UKMO chart is so good for Friday that it won't verify!

Whether it does or doesn't won't stop us from having a week in the freezer with snow in the east, se and west even, and severe frosts with high windchill in bitter ESEly winds, the ukmo T+120 doesn't seem so impossible after saying all that does it?

Hopefully an EPIC Ecm 12z on the way

[Mark Bayley]

Block puts up a decent fight on the GEM, the only agreement at the moment is that should remain cold (with snow at times) for until next weekend, thereafter take your pick!

[Snowaddict]

Regarding the latest 12Z UKMO and GEM Guidance: Several of the GEFS 12Z Members indicate an undercutting sequence in the T+96 - T+120 timeframe.

It may not verify - but certainly something to watch - a trend that is not without support this afternoon.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=10&ech=114&mode=0&carte=0

SA

[chris55]

I know it's only the GEM, but 126 looks nice

GEM aint to bad actually, and has done pretty well recently.

[Continental Climate]

i think in terms of trends today http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif, there has been a definite tendency to both weaken the intensity of the cold and the easterlies and also probably the duration of the cold spell. I mean the UKMO was a considerable downgrade at T60, now its still going to be cold just a lot less snow about and i think the signs are there that the models will start transfering more energy north.

[stainesbloke]

Just flicking between theUKMO 96 and 120 it looks a little strange. I can't see the reason for the sudden appearance of such an extensive upper trough and surface low out of nowhere. The 96 hr setup does not hint at such a formation so quickly. It looks like some error?

Yes, all a bit sudden, that low seems to explode, seems a bit suspect. But if it happens....wow!

[MR EXTREMES]

cfs looks good for feb

[Long haul to mild]

i think in terms of trends today http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif, there has been a definite tendency to both weaken the intensity of the cold and the easterlies and also probably the duration of the cold spell. I mean the UKMO was a considerable downgrade at T60, now its still going to be cold just a lot less snow about and i think the signs are there that the models will start transfering more energy north.

Yes, it looks like we have lost quite a bit of the convective opportunity for midweek, which has mostly been overlooked in all the (understandable) excitement about the UKMO T120 chart!

Will be interesting to see how the fax charts look when they are issued later.

Edited January 13, 2013 by Chalk Serpent

[MR EXTREMES]

the gefs is very similar to the gfs at the same time frame.

[dr snow]

I don't, once again the UKMO has changed towards the GFS just as it did in DEC, what a joke of a model I have no faith in it what so ever anymore

I don't often post here but the above just makes no sense and goes against the verification stats posted by SK. Also, i really don't see how the UKMO has changed toward the GFS when it's showing an undercut and poissibly blizzards next weekend! Help, or is it a case of using the ignore button!

[weather eater]

So the 12z GFS backs away from its 06z output and edges back towards the UKMO, Lovely charts on the UKMO but frankly the huge uncertainty as advertised by the professional bodies is still the most important factor to consider, so no real point giving much credence to any output post 72hrs. However some sort of easterly setup must remain the odds on favourite, whether energy then goes over or under that HP remains to be seen, the later hopefully. ECM to come in the next hour and a bit, it’s not been great of late; but let’s hope it pulls a rabbit out of the hat this evening.

[Frosty.]

cfs looks good for feb

Yes it looks just like RJS/BFTP and GP are expecting, the ultimate outcome of a major stratospheric warming event(s)

[snowking]

GEFS mean at 120 indicates the split within the individual Pet's:

Slight favouring from that of some energy over the top, but as you would expect in a situation where you are dealing with a very delicate balance of energy (within the context of record Shannon Entropy of course...) it is an almost 50/50 split.

Would expect similar from ECM ensembles

SK

[swilliam]

Even the NOGAPS looks ok - decent block at +144

Begins to undercut at +180

[pinball wizard]

Well, given the choice (a false choice, I know) between the GFS and UKMO models, I'd put my money on the UKMO...Not because I like snow and blizzards and that's what the UKMO shows, but because it's made for UK/European climes, and Brits & Europeans should be more in-tune with our conditions...

By this do you mean that the model would be programmed differently?

[goosey007]

I wonder if IAN FERGUSON has anything say about UKMO T+120. will it come off? at this range its obviously impossible to gauge giving model flip flops this week, worst ive ever seen!

ps can any one tell is the bbc doing another weekly forecast this evening? some one mentioned countryfile but i thought i saw that on lunchtime?

cheers

LET IT SNOW!

[latitude]

Just when we get some great wintry weather a SSW comes along and we get this!

haha. Only 'im dreaming of' would post such a chart to bring us down to earth after 'THAT UKMETO'

[suffolkboy_]

I wonder if IAN FERGUSON has anything say about UKMO T+120. will it come off? at this range its obviously impossible to gauge giving model flip flops this week, worst ive ever seen!

ps can any one tell is the bbc doing another weekly forecast this evening? some one mentioned countryfile but i thought i saw that on lunchtime?

cheers

LET IT SNOW!

Will be on at around 7.50pm. The one this morning was a Countryfile repeat. Don't expect them to commit to anything after Wednesday. I think this week will really show that the Weather dictates the models....not the other way around as some seem to forget!

[lord stratus]

I wonder if IAN FERGUSON has anything say about UKMO T+120. will it come off? at this range its obviously impossible to gauge giving model flip flops this week, worst ive ever seen!

ps can any one tell is the bbc doing another weekly forecast this evening? some one mentioned countryfile but i thought i saw that on lunchtime?

cheers

LET IT SNOW!

If its likely to come off there will be advanced warnings by the end of Tuesday.

I remember the 1982 blizzard in South Wales, we were warned a week in advance of that one. That's when forecasts seemed more accurate!

Looking at the various charts, it does seem to be an option so the forecasters will be watching closely.

[If Wishes made Weather]

I wonder if IAN FERGUSON has anything say about UKMO T+120. will it come off? at this range its obviously impossible to gauge giving model flip flops this week, worst ive ever seen!

ps can any one tell is the bbc doing another weekly forecast this evening? some one mentioned countryfile but i thought i saw that on lunchtime?

cheers

LET IT SNOW!

Think that they would be burning the midnight oil - and handing out the Asprin - in Exeter if those charts came to fruition