Winter Model Discussion - 12/01/13 06z Onwards

[Panayiotis]

UKMO on is own out of the big 3, as the ECM also sends the low over the high instead of underneath, could well change but for both of the GFS and ECM showing this im afraid the UKMO could play the catching up game.

[-uksnow-]

Look at the chart again, just below the top near the "Run 12z ECM". Look at the shade of blue noted -12 and then look at Anglia.

Ok I've looked again........

Nope still -8s, the only -12's are over Netherlands and Scandinavian region, -10's into the North Sea.

[Buzz]

ecm not going with ukmo at +96

True, but the ECM T+120 is fairly similar to the UKMO at T+96 -

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

[lord stratus]

Thanks LORD STRATUS' I think theres alot of head scatching going on at the Met office, I for one refuse to get excited about UKMO T+120 far far too many dissapointments. We shall see

The best thing to do is keep an eye on the bbc forecast as well as relying on this forum. Remember the bbc forecast will help keep your feet firmly on the ground.

That ukmo chart would be a huge snow event if it were to verify from approximately Oxford south!

[georgiedre]

while looking at most models maybe low pressure splitting may be the other option maybe? lol just another option

[bluearmy]

Much less energy in the atantic at day 5. Waa to support the block. Maybe the second depression will try and undercut?

[ICETAB]

I think the ECM T144 chart will be good. I think that low will slide under the block and the high will spin to make an eastly

[If Wishes made Weather]

ECM at 120 builds the high pressure system into Scandi far more and brings it far more south. It is almost meeting up with higher pressure mid Atlantic blocking an undercut

[TEITS]

I will mention though that what the ECM is showing at +120 is pretty much what the UKMO has been showing over the last few days. Remember yesterdays 0Z ECM had milder SW,lys over the UK which of course is now +96.

Seems to me the other models are 24hrs behind the UKMO.

At +144 the colder upper temps back W.

Remember the UKMO has never been keen to reintroduce milder weather which cannot be said for the GFS/ECM over the past 36hrs.

Edited January 13, 2013 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[ChartViewer]

Well to me the ECM120 is better but still seems to be fighting and kicking against strat reverse zonal winds, seems still to want to go west to east, and energy still wants to power up...we shall see....again more runs needed ...not convinced to be honest...but a step in the right direction.

ECM144

Cold still battling....

Edited January 13, 2013 by ChartViewer

[nick sussex]

The difference between the fax charts for 72hrs and the previous 84hrs are chalk and cheese in terms of snow potential.

The latest with a slack flow is really a let down and just goes to show that even with all those super computers and experience the volatility of the models is making the UKMO look pretty poor at the moment.

Indeed looking at the fax chart that looks like they've modified their raw output to show an even slacker flow!

[danm]

Well the block holds firm at t144 on the ECM.

[island lad]

What frustrates me, is that we're always looking 4-5 days ahead.

As soon as any possible snow events get to within 2-3 days away, they start to water down and only a very few get lucky, or it turns out to be a complete non event.

Looking through the various GFS runs, Precipitation charts, uppers etc...there's hardly any agreement what so ever even as early as + 96.

I think the next 24 hours models are all worth taking with the smallest pinch of salt, everything is changing hour by hour, I have no faith in any of them at this present time.

You've echoed my thoughts entirely. Staying cold yes, widespread snow - I doubt it very much.

[Ice Day]

Cold fights back at 144

[Su Campu]

You know you can get the ECMWF in 3-hr increments out to 144 from the Icelandic met here. Includes pressure, T850 and precipitation.

http://en.vedur.is/weather/shipping/atlantic/

To see beyond 144 (in 12-hr increments) just copy the image URL, paste it in the address bar and change the time stamp to whatever hour you want.

[Weathizard]

What's happened to the cold over Europe at 144? Even if we got a mega convective easterly it wouldn't last for long? Still a step in the right direction from the ecm

[samadamsuk]

Hi rob. Think you mean fi (fantasy island) - i miss the electrical storns fron the 80's too!

[Continental Climate]

Block not giving up http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif!! Its just that its not far enough north to be really useful in terms of snow, that SATANIC piece of vortex south of greenie is really p*****g me off

[Frosty_wsm]

UKMO on is own out of the big 3, as the ECM also sends the low over the high instead of underneath, could well change but for both of the GFS and ECM showing this im afraid the UKMO could play the catching up game.

Totally disagree with that, have you not noticed the ukmo has been very steady in its output with regards to the cold pattern we're in at the moment, not showing the wild swings that both the gfs and the ecm has, the ecm even had us in a south westerly for later this week at one point! Yes the ecm might have the best verification stats but in no way has it handled the build up to this current cold spell we're entering into this week very well at all.

For me, having the ukmo show that amazing scenario for Friday is far more encouraging than seeing it on either the gfs or the ecm.

[bluearmy]

The difference between the fax charts for 72hrs and the previous 84hrs are chalk and cheese in terms of snow potential.

The latest with a slack flow is really a let down and just goes to show that even with all those super computers and experience the volatility of the models is making the UKMO look pretty poor at the moment.

Indeed looking at the fax chart that looks like they've modified their raw output to show an even slacker flow!

Lost the shortwave running into w france whch increased the CAA. Woudnt be impossible for circuation to reappear tomorrow morning but doubtful.

[Panayiotis]

What's happened to the cold over Europe at 144? Even if we got a mega convective easterly it wouldn't last for long? Still a step in the right direction from the ecm

Yes but look at the area the cold takes over, quite astonishing if you ask me!

[Long haul to mild]

The difference between the fax charts for 72hrs and the previous 84hrs are chalk and cheese in terms of snow potential.

The latest with a slack flow is really a let down and just goes to show that even with all those super computers and experience the volatility of the models is making the UKMO look pretty poor at the moment.

Indeed looking at the fax chart that looks like they've modified their raw output to show an even slacker flow!

Yes, very disappointing. Despite the fantastic potential in the charts at present, it always seems to be that many of the fantastic synoptics are toned down when they get into within three days and we are left looking into mid-range chasing the next one! I for one will be amazed if the UKMO T120 chart comes to fruition, but I hope I'm wrong!

Having said that, there is definitely some interest tomorrow for the eastern side of the country!

[Catacol]

Second time I am going to post from GEM today. I REALLY hope that the Canadians have a good handle on the air patterns over their own airspace as this is golden territory again for the south.

I suspect the strength of the block to our north will be underestimated (this seems to be a frequent error in the models) and hence the undercut is a logical solution. ECM is moving more towards this, and UKMO has also kept the block strong until the end of the week with the potential for an undercut by a very potent system past 144. As I type this ECM at 144 also looks set for a possible undercut of energy. All very exciting.

GFS out on its own again with the atlantic barreling through, but many of us longer term chart watchers have repeated that this is a bias that the GFS seems to have on a regular basis, so not too worried about that.

In essence if you live in the south, and end up disappointed by rain tomorrow and then dry, cold conditions midweek dont give up hope of the white stuff. Thursday into Friday looks interesting to me...

[Panayiotis]

Totally disagree with that, have you not noticed the ukmo has been very steady in its output with regards to the cold pattern we're in at the moment, not showing the wild swings that both the gfs and the ecm has, the ecm even had us in a south westerly for later this week at one point! Yes the ecm might have the best verification stats but in no way has it handled the build up to this current cold spell we're entering into this week very well at all.

For me, having the ukmo show that amazing scenario for Friday is far more encouraging than seeing it on either the gfs or the ecm.

Very true, we will have to wait to see which model is correct i guess!

[ChartViewer]

Big guns starting to roll out