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Winter Model Discussion - 12/01/13 06z Onwards

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Timmytour Accomplished

Timmytour

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
Posted

just about to watch the Day After Tomorrow yet again.....wistfuly remembering how, only a few days ago, the models had me dreaming it could be like that this week

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Continental Climate Aficionado

Continental Climate

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Poor ECM really poor http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif!! This I believe will be the correct solution next weekend as that south greenie vortex has loads of energy in it spilling out its bile into the north atlantic and powering up the jet

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Lost the shortwave running into w france whch increased the CAA. Woudnt be impossible for circuation to reappear tomorrow morning but doubtful.

Well the flow cant get any slacker so yes we might see a change. Also that shortwave near Iceland though is a real pain, whats new!

Hard to be sure any of the models really know what they're doing at the moment so if people want to look at snow potential best stick to max 48hrs as thats just about the limit and even then the UKMO cant decide whats happening!

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

We are still in the freezer on the 21st....

post-17320-0-97801500-1358102981_thumb.g

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Long haul to mild Community Regular

Long haul to mild

Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: April!
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
Posted

Well the flow cant get any slacker so yes we might see a change. Also that shortwave near Iceland though is a real pain, whats new!

Hard to be sure any of the models really know what they're doing at the moment so if people want to look at snow potential best stick to max 48hrs as thats just about the limit and even then the UKMO cant decide whats happening!

I'm sure the forecaster has forgotten to draw some lines in the North Sea on that T72 fax chart! biggrin.png

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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted

ECM has extended the cold spell at least until Friday this evening.

Remember what it was predicting for Friday a couple of days ago...

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Let's enjoy what the models are showing within the reliable timeframe, it's rare we get a freeze so let's make the most of it, beyond T+96 is FI and we could end up with something even more severe soon, scotland and ireland look a little less cold this week compared to SE UK but cold enough, england looks a lot colder (T850's of -8 to -12 T850hPa) with more in the way of snow for eastern and southeastern areas especially.cold.gif

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)

Just seen the BBC forecast for the week ahead which is going firmly with the UKMO output and showing a stronger easterly flow on Wednesday driving snow showers inland.

http://www.bbc.co.uk.../feeds/21003935

This is another example i feel that the bbc forecasts are a little out of date. This forecast was surely done with the 00z ukmo input in mind

as opposed to the updated 12z. I feel this is unacceptable, especially for a week ahead forecast. I don't know whether it's because they do not

have time to digest the 12z suite before the forecast but if this is the case, then it should be aired later so that they do have time.

Should also point out that I am mainly referring to the 12z fax charts and also 12z ukmo in terms of the much watered down

mid week easterly.

Edited by blizzard81
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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

I am happy with the fact that the model runs extend the length of cold by 12hrs every 12hrs........ long may that continue.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

just about to watch the Day After Tomorrow yet again.....wistfuly remembering how, only a few days ago, the models had me dreaming it could be like that this week

It still mightgood.gif

post-4783-0-33941800-1358103518_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-81696900-1358103540_thumb.pn

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Just seen the BBC forecast for the week ahead which is going firmly with the UKMO output and showing a stronger easterly flow on Wednesday driving snow showers inland.

http://www.bbc.co.uk.../feeds/21003935

Shame they couldn't bother putting together a forecast that had the latest data, looking at the SLP charts thats using the 00hrs run data, maybe the UKMO didn't expect such a change in the 12hrs but it's really one of my irritations, I've seen this happen before even on evening forecasts where the datas already been superceded.

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The Giant Daddy Jackpot Rookie

The Giant Daddy Jackpot

Posted
  • Location: West Devon
  • Weather Preferences: We've hit the giant daddy jackpot!
  • Location: West Devon
Posted

Just seen the BBC forecast for the week ahead which is going firmly with the UKMO output and showing a stronger easterly flow on Wednesday driving snow showers inland.

http://www.bbc.co.uk.../feeds/21003935

Yes, the METO are now confident of a cold block right into next weekend with cold uppers really digging in. Snow showers moving inland from those North Sea troughs and really pepping up by Wednesday.Anyone disappointed by the lack of any white stuff in our area tomorrow should see some by the middle of the week and feeling bitter in a keen NE flow!

brack2a.gif

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted

ECM has extended the cold spell at least until Friday this evening.

Remember what it was predicting for Friday a couple of days ago...

Fantastic post. People are very quick to slate the gfs but this post really does expose the ecm,s frailties recently.

The difference between the two charts is stark to say the least.

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

One big plus on the ECM is that the block holds and the LPs hit brick wall and split. Its a reasonable step forward. Cold to remain at or very close to us with a battleground. Not a bad run, so reasonably pleased

BFTP

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

A bit confused by how downbeat people are about the 12z ECM. It's actually cold out to the end (day 10) with uppers at of below -4c the risk of snow remains ESP away from town centres and with a b it of altitude. Could see another swing toward ECM / gem tomorrow. Also as has been said the trend is to prolong the cold on the models every day by 1 day.

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snow mad Enthusiast

snow mad

Posted
  • Location: suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: deep snow/warm sunshine
  • Location: suffolk
Posted (edited)

UKM looking isolated tonight!

What about the GEM Still think the ecm has moved towards ukmo tonight and its so finely balanced it could still end up sending energy under the block... and if you look right through the FI its obviously picked up a signal for the block to be a lot stronger as although its moved further to the east than we would like its still there at 240hrs disrupting that massive low and dare I say at 264hrs might be of interest.. Edited by snow mad
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Yes, the METO are now confident of a cold block right into next weekend with cold uppers really digging in. Snow showers moving inland from those North Sea troughs and really pepping up by Wednesday.Anyone disappointed by the lack of any white stuff in our area tomorrow should see some by the middle of the week and feeling bitter in a keen NE flow!

brack2a.gif

That fax charts out of date.

The new one is poor in comparison but it will probably change again by the morning so maybe the convective easterly might be back!

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Kentish Snowman in Yorks Experienced

Kentish Snowman in Yorks

Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
Posted

I am happy with the fact that the model runs extend the length of cold by 12hrs every 12hrs........ long may that continue.

I couldn't have put it better myself! I am quite astounded at the negativity on here. We have a week long cold spell to look forward to which given we were forecast to be in a mobile westerly by Tuesday only 2/3 days ago is a wonderful scenario (and rare) for the UK.

I don't understand what people are after? We always get told 'get the cold in first and the snow will follow'. Yes some of us may get more than others and yes an unlucky few may get none at all, but given the present outlook (a very cold and somewhat unsettled theme) things don't really get much better than this for the UK in winter.

A little perspective required methinks...

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