Winter Model Discussion - 12/01/13 06z Onwards

[Ice Day]

Good lord, that's looking nice

[Col Berkshire]

There is no warm sector, even the west is around -4. Anglia looks to me to have -12 uppers! All to play for tomorrow.

ED: Probably -10

-8 over East Anglia, not -12

[-uksnow-]

There is no warm sector, even the west is around -4. Anglia looks to me to have -12 uppers! All to play for tomorrow.

ED: Probably -10

*edits again*

Just scraping -8's

[Matty M]

Short term gain but long term pain methinks.

Angle of Atlantic not as positive as UKM, heights not as great towards Greenland and the jet extended further east.

[If Wishes made Weather]

Looking through the T48 charts and the deep low pressure system that is modeled to develop and move SE along the north Canadian coast towards Newfoundland. It would appear that the GFS has this system modeled at the lowest pressure (970mb) and thus shows the most energy available. UKMO is showing 980mb and the ECM 975. Small differences, but it would seem that these small differences in available energy are what enable the undercut, which is, as previously noted, shown on about 30% of the GFES possibilities in one form or another.

[Polar Front]

What frustrates me, is that we're always looking 4-5 days ahead.

As soon as any possible snow events get to within 2-3 days away, they start to water down and only a very few get lucky, or it turns out to be a complete non event.

Looking through the various GFS runs, Precipitation charts, uppers etc...there's hardly any agreement what so ever even as early as + 96.

I think the next 24 hours models are all worth taking with the smallest pinch of salt, everything is changing hour by hour, I have no faith in any of them at this present time.

SPOT ON! Too many people on this thread look for problems/breakdowns/upgrades in F1 that never happen. I'd give anything to go back to the early 80's when on monday morning you would wake up to 1ft of snow followed by weeks of sub zero temperatures without the weeks/days of prior F1 analysis.

[ChartViewer]

Much better ECM T96

You can see already energy going south east not east

Edited January 13, 2013 by ChartViewer

[Stuie]

*edits again*

Just scraping -8's

Look at the chart again, just below the top near the "Run 12z ECM". Look at the shade of blue noted -12 and then look at Anglia.

[Continental Climate]

I may be wrong but i think its that pesky bit of vortex near baffin thats causing the problem with our high sinking http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.gif!! Evil little shortwaves being spawned and spat into the atlantic, wonder how long that will take to bugger off?

[cooling climate]

ECM t120 chart should be good.

[Methuselah]

SPOT ON! Too many people on this thread look for problems/breakdowns/upgrades in F1 that never happen. I'd give anything to go back to the early 80's when on monday morning you would wake up to 1ft of snow followed by weeks of sub zero temperatures without the weeks/days of prior F1 analysis.

Aye PF.. Breakdowns are what make F1 so entertaining! Anywho, one the sport section?

[snowice]

ecm not going with ukmo at +96

[TEITS]

Simple to describe the ECM at +96. Better than the GFS but not as good as the UKMO.

[chionomaniac]

Much better ECM T96

You can see already energy going south east not east

Yes a lovely little shortwave ready to go under. Another step in the right direction.

[Matty M]

Such a delicate situation, ECM not far from letting that low go under.

FI starts at T96hrs.

[UV-RAY]

Aye PF.. Breakdowns are what make F1 so entertaining! Anywho, one the sport section?

They are entertaining as in they build our hopes up but never actually verify, today being a prime example,

[Continental Climate]

I think im resigned to the fact now that its going to be cold and frosty from wednesday onwards http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif and not the convective easterly that was being shown yesterday just too much energy going north sadly!!

[cooling climate]

T 120 not as good as I hoped it would be but its a step in the right direction.

Had to laugh just seen the ITV weather and temps tomorrow of 4c and 5c.

Surely they did not get that from the Met office.

[bradymk]

Yes ECM encouraging at t96 and TEITS summed it up perfectly. Should be a better run. Only just looked at the 12z GFS ensembles, so much better than previous runs, some good runs appearing in there now too. 120 not so good, this disagreement getting all too annoying.

Edited January 13, 2013 by bradythemole

[TEITS]

These models really can't decide can they.

Like the GFS some energy goes SE&N whereas on the UKMO its all SE.

[Wadey]

Has the warm sector for tomorrow gone ? And are the -5's more westwards ?

[Long haul to mild]

I think im resigned to the fact now that its going to be cold and frosty from wednesday onwards http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm961.gif and not the convective easterly that was being shown yesterday just too much energy going north sadly!!

Yes, would agree, but then again there may still be disturbances in the flow? I may be talking rubbish here, but things sometimes pop up at short notice!

[MarcB]

What frustrates me, is that we're always looking 4-5 days ahead.

As soon as any possible snow events get to within 2-3 days away, they start to water down and only a very few get lucky, or it turns out to be a complete non event.

Looking through the various GFS runs, Precipitation charts, uppers etc...there's hardly any agreement what so ever even as early as + 96.

I think the next 24 hours models are all worth taking with the smallest pinch of salt, everything is changing hour by hour, I have no faith in any of them at this present time.

SPOT ON! Too many people on this thread look for problems/breakdowns/upgrades in F1 that never happen. I'd give anything to go back to the early 80's when on monday morning you would wake up to 1ft of snow followed by weeks of sub zero temperatures without the weeks/days of prior F1 analysis.

Very true but this the model discussion thread, so what do you expect??

I very rarely post in the thread and keep to the regionals because i know very little about reading the models. I come here to read in what way the knowledgable (?) posters on here are reading the charts for +48 right through to FI, thats what this thread is for!

Edit - back off to my regional hole now...

Edited January 13, 2013 by MarcB

[Bristawl Si]

These models really can't decide can they.

Like the GFS some energy goes SE&N whereas on the UKMO its all SE.

V different from that UKMO chart earlier!

[Matty M]

Agreement between the ECM and GFS of the modelling of the LP near Iceland at T120, I would have much greater confidence in this outcome as UKM was late to developing a similar low T 72hrs.

So overall not a bad ECM but not great, we need to see a movement towards the UKM in the morning and hope the UKM isn,t wrong about the Icelandic low as it was recently.