Winter Model Discussion - 12/01/13 06z Onwards

[LomondSnowstorm]

GEM looks to be heading in the right direction as well:

Not quite as impressive as the 00Z simply because of the eastward correction that has occured since then but still very promising.

[pages]

gem looks messy very messy on that note i think the ecm may well be messy to for some reason i always see similar between gem and ecm for some reason there almost in sync sometimes.

may be messy but its good for cold, heights good over greenie and scandie at 108 and energy going under, think this going to give us proper easterly.

[ChartViewer]

GEM T120...Cold continuing

Edited January 13, 2013 by ChartViewer

[-uksnow-]

I don't really understand this...surely a lot of the weather conditions we receive rely, primarily, on the upstream conditions along the east coast of the USA? I don't think you can "localise" weather as such, given that it's all interconnected.

Rybris Ponce seems to be barking up the same tree that i was yesterday and i agree with him that as the UKMO is built for our climate it should have a better handle of how systems interact with us.

[UV-RAY]

Well, given the choice (a false choice, I know) between the GFS and UKMO models, I'd put my money on the UKMO...Not because I like snow and blizzards and that's what the UKMO shows, but because it's made for UK/European climes, and Brits & Europeans should be more in-tune with our conditions...

The trouble is though the UKMO is not very good in the +144 range. Edited January 13, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[If Wishes made Weather]

GEM at 120 isnt a million miles away from the UKMO with a corridor of low heights building from Iceland through to Italy with heights in Scandi. It would allow for an undercut

[chris55]

How many posts in awe at the UKMO T+120!!!!

Here is another one, UKMO is SENSATIONAL!!!!!!!!!! With a south-east wind, heavy snow would be widespread!!!!!!!!!!!

[Summer Sun]

Ruddy Nora!! First it was That ECM, now its That UKMO!!!!!

[Ice Day]

I know it's only the GEM, but 126 looks nice

[snowking]

The trouble is though the UKMO is not very good in the +144 range.

Well 12z's its second behind the ECMWF

Top of the pile

SK

And then at 0z:

[Jason M]

GFS does seem to keep going for a big PV over Greenland and or the North Atlantic. With the SSW etc if we could get a height rise we would really be in business but it was notable that in the last to sets of ensembles the trend has been for a zonal set up instead. Models are of course all over the place but nonetheless the trend has been there.

We are really struggling to get any decent northern blocking and that is the key issue. That said, GFS does keep putting things back.

I keep reading about blizzards etc but I'm not personally seeing them in the charts. NE England and east Anglia look good for tommorow but a rainfest for many and beyond that showers into Kent and NE England. For most places though a dry week coming up. I live in south essex and I reckon by mid week we might squeeze several cms if the force is with us. I'm expecting sleet tommorow evening here, but we shall see.

Jason

Jason

[MR EXTREMES]

Just when we get some great wintry weather a SSW comes along and we get this!

yes but weres it going thats the thing i think it would well be heading over our side and what happened the last time it done this 09/10 ring any bells just wish it would hurry up though.

[ChartViewer]

The GEM at T132....Def trend setter

Edited January 13, 2013 by ChartViewer

[Froze were the Days]

GFS/UKMO/GEM are all similar mid-week the difference being the amplification of the GFS (and in all honesty hasn't really strayed away from showing a stronger northern arm to the jet and never strays from boosting that PV up near Greenland so very consistent). Interesting to note that the Beeb forecast for the week showed HP somewhat to the north of the UK and UKMO model only briefly showed this yesterday so a bit strange and doesn't really tie in with the UKMO outputs.

I personally think ECM will show more of the same tonight and the probable form horse will be the jet to the north next weekend bringing in the Atlantic but to the degree the GFS does is debatable and certainly would put GP and RJS forecasts out the window.

Edited January 13, 2013 by Froze were the Days

[UV-RAY]

Well 12z's its second behind the ECMWF

Top of the pile

SK

And then at 0z:

I meant at 5 days, this was discussed when the the UKMO were showing charts that was poor for cold.

[Long haul to mild]

Still think that UKMO chart is so good for Friday that it won't verify! There seems to be a lot of factors midweek that could change the end of the week's forecast. The low to the SW seems to blow up out of nowhere! Can we realistically expect that level of energy running under the block? Fascinating stuff.

[If Wishes made Weather]

I know it's only the GEM, but 126 looks nice

Really its non too shabby and although the subsequent charts out to 138 are nothing like as extreme as the UKMO (what could be?) they retain the theme: Scandi heights, easterly most strong across the south and low enough heights in the flow for instability. Bitterly cold all the time.

[bluearmy]

Gem is a real gem with the block to the north no longer a wedge of higher heights but at T138 there is the magic 552dam thickness in h cut off block! (And further waa to sustain it)

[TheBigFreeze]

Does anyone think we will still see the strong E/NE's Wed/Thursday to push the snow showers inland further?

[Neilsouth]

WOW UK 120hrs chart is unbelievable, if only we could trust it!!!!

I don't, once again the UKMO has changed towards the GFS just as it did in DEC, what a joke of a model I have no faith in it what so ever anymore

[MR EXTREMES]

gem wants to play to infact nearly all the models want to continue low heights undercutting which is promising but are they right we shall see.

gem is nice though deep cold being pulled west so its possible.

and to the top model gfs its top but i notice the cmc model what model is that its got to be a chinese model surely and if it is it would not suprise me that its a good model.

[snowking]

I meant at 5 days, this was discussed when the the UKMO were showing charts that was poor for cold.

Okie dokie:

Second at 12z

Joint first at 0z

The most surprising thing for me there is the Indian model, which is verifying better at 0z then the GEM, and is 0.002 off the GFS!!

SK

[Su Campu]

Just flicking between theUKMO 96 and 120 it looks a little strange. I can't see the reason for the sudden appearance of such an extensive upper trough and surface low out of nowhere. The 96 hr setup does not hint at such a formation so quickly. It looks like some error?

[goosey007]

I don't really understand this...surely a lot of the weather conditions we receive rely, primarily, on the upstream conditions along the east coast of the USA? I don't think you can "localise" weather as such, given that it's all interconnected.

you are right to a degree but logically the ukmo should have programmed their model to be better equipped to forcast the end results in and around our longitude/latitude as thats where they have to make forecasts! could be talking a load of hogwash...but that seems very logical to me Edited January 13, 2013 by goosey007

[MR EXTREMES]

that low heights to our west is certainly a undercut if this was to continue frames looks good aswell brrrrr