Far North of England Regional - Cold Spell Discussion 15/01/13 12z onwards

[seabreeze86]

Having just viewed the ECM i can safely say that is a absolute snowfest for our region you couldent draw better charts.

This is my favorite.

As Isolated Frost says it is not without support from other models apart from the GFS which has been shocking of late so i wouldent worry about that.

[NickR]

I don't like Paul Mooney. For me he is far too conservative and doesn't give even a fifth of the info that Ian Ferguson does in the West COuntry.

[Summer Sun]

I don't like Paul Mooney. For me he is far too conservative and doesn't give even a fifth of the info that Ian Ferguson does in the West COuntry.

There is no chance of sleet what so ever even the Met office are forecasting snow! http://www.metoffice...Time=1358553600

Edited January 16, 2013 by Gavin.

[seabreeze86]

If it rains in the north east on saturday i will eat my hat. 850 s between -7 -9 , 523 to 524 dam line, dew point at freezing or below. One thing will fall from the sky snow at worst wet snow

[Yozzer]

I actually do like Paul Mooney, I think the problem is that the stuff his forecasts are based on are 12 hours out of date. But, he could well be right for the big population areas of the North East which are all at the coast. It could well turn to sleet or rain if there is a direct easterly or south easterly, as dew points at the coast will be above zero, the 528 dam line will be offshore by then, and with mixing due to higher winds, surface temps will get above zero. I would say come inland 10 miles plus or with a bit of altitude (150m) and it would be an all snow event.

[Isolated Frost]

I like Paul Mooney- however he does seem to be a bit of a mildie.

Sleet? No chance- strong flow off the North Sea, yes- but incredibly cold surface temps and dew points- it's going to be very hard to see rain and sleet.. plenty of convection progged as well.

[Rollo]

I lived through the winter of 47' I find it hard to believe it could be a replay after 50 years -- I enjoyed it then and if it happens to occur again then enjoy as we may well have to wait another half century for the next one!

Edited January 16, 2013 by Rollo

[Summer Sun]

Lisa Gallagher said snow will arrive during Friday before clearing away to the east during Saturday on the lunchtime forecast - http://news.bbc.co.u...000/7760853.stm - Think Paul will be changing his forecast tonight (if he's on of course) as long he has the latest data

Also Hannah Bayman is back on our screens this Friday

Edited January 16, 2013 by Gavin.

[Isolated Frost]

-8c uppers quite widely across the NE on Sat with surface cold quite embedded, dew points should be below zero for the most part. The only realistic problem, is the coast and nearby areas have strong south-easterlies, it could be a very close shave. The flow after that is 100% snow showers and frontal incursions.

[NickR]

Lisa Gallagher = FINALLY some proper, fit NE weather totty

[Isolated Frost]

Lisa Gallagher = FINALLY some proper, fit NE weather totty

I'd rather have Ian Fergusson, but if you're going to have presenter, not forecaster, then I agree, fit is the way forward!

[tynevalleysnow]

paul mooney on look north rain n sleet for the north east on sat REALLY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

He said 2 days ago friday night would be+2 but now say-3. Even bbc 5 day forcast has snow fri/sat/sun. Hugh pinch of salt plus all models going for snow!

[Summer Sun]

Met office text forecast for the weekend

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

A strong and bitterly cold wind by Friday, with snow developing in many areas. Less windy for Saturday and Sunday but still with a little sleet or snow likely.

Issued at: 1600 on Wed 16 Jan 2013

[Summer Sun]

ECM Precipitation charts from the MOD thread

Highs were only 2c which makes it even more surprising.

ECM precip for the 12z run only about 4-6cm for the SE:

The heavier snow in the NW (after moving from SW) and dies as it moves NE.

Monday's event on the ECM looks v. south centric and a weakening feature, snow wise:

[Isolated Frost]

Quite snowy according to the hi-res EC for Tyne and Wear.

[NickR]

Quite snowy according to the hi-res EC for Tyne and Wear.

You're going to have to help me out here, IF... is that from convective showers rather than the front? Will we get convection is the front doesn't make it? I'm assuming yes, as the low slides SE and the wind comes from the SE as a result.

[Isolated Frost]

You're going to have to help me out here, IF... is that from convective showers rather than the front? Will we get convection is the front doesn't make it? I'm assuming yes, as the low slides SE and the wind comes from the SE as a result.

It appears we're going to get convection anyway, no matter if the front comes or doesn't.

That is all frontal precip- the EC very bullish in it coming early on Friday and delivering a good amount of snow...

[NickR]

It appears we're going to get convection anyway, no matter if the front comes or doesn't.

That is all frontal precip- the EC very bullish in it coming early on Friday and delivering a good amount of snow...

WHat's your gut feeling about how far the front will get? ECM? Or more like GFS? (Or the French model which sends it all to France! lol)

[Alex95]

Thing is, it could be better for us if we miss the front as from past experience it will be weaker and fragmented when it reaches us, 2-4 inches if we are very lucky, but probably <2 inches, whereas 2-3 days of convection would almost certainly give bigger snowfalls.

[Isolated Frost]

Nick, I'm thinking UKMO-GEM-ECM mash-up, not the GFS imo. What I see is the GFS versus everything- and it just doesn't look right with teleconnections-

Alza, if we clip the front, get a couple of inches, and get some slack E/SE'lies for Saturday to Wednesday (slight frontal incursion.. east flow Monday), then it's jackpot!

[Summer Sun]

I've just watched at the Paul Mooney forecast

Friday he's going for snow for all the region that includes Cumbria, into the weekend he's going for temps in the North East of 2c max during Saturday with it turning more to rain and sleet and 0c on Saturday night again with rain / sleet

Now with uppers of -8 it would not surprise me to see this falling as snow maybe literally right on the coast we'll see sleet / rain but inland falling as snow

[Isolated Frost]

Note BBC graphics at one point on Saturday/Sunday night had the Monday event as mostly heavy rain until mid-afternoon for the NE. Plenty of changes to go around with the volatile movement of such a synoptic.

[Freezing-Point]

Thing is, it could be better for us if we miss the front as from past experience it will be weaker and fragmented when it reaches us, 2-4 inches if we are very lucky, but probably <2 inches, whereas 2-3 days of convection would almost certainly give bigger snowfalls.

Totally agree. When was the last time a front from the west delivered decent snow to the ne? The pennines stop the heavy ppn from reaching us.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Freezing-Point

[NickR]

Totally agree. When was the last time a front from the west delivered decent snow to the ne? The pennies stop the heavy ppn from reaching us.

I don't ask for much. Wherever it comes from I just want more snow than anywhere else in England. This is who we are; this is what we're good at; this is our recompense for the utterly awful summers! IMBY? You betcha!

[Summer Sun]

Note BBC graphics at one point on Saturday/Sunday night had the Monday event as mostly heavy rain until mid-afternoon for the NE. Plenty of changes to go around with the volatile movement of such a synoptic.

I have a feeling Paul's graphic's weren't updated to the 12z data maybe we'll see a different look on the 22:35 forecast if not tonight then in the morning