Far North of England Regional - Cold Spell Discussion 15/01/13 12z onwards

[snowmaddave]

Cheers frost, looking more and more like a prolonged spell of cold weather

Is this due to the ssw that has took place or is that still to effect our weather further down the line?

[Isolated Frost]

All in all how do u think wr will fare in snow terms compared to the west IF? Will we get any blizzard like conditions?

By Friday 2100, I think the NW/Midlands/South-West and parts of SW Scotland will be doing much better.

By Saturday 2100, I wouldn't be shocked if we were at the same levels, if not more.

By Sunday 2100, based on current NWP, we would be ahead.

Blizzard-wise, it's a word that is banded around v easily nowadays, with height and elevation yes, but at low levels, mod-strong winds with heavy snow on Friday night and Saturday morning v possible, turning lighter/moderate through Saturday- with snow shrs moving in

The possibility of snow shrs moving in with the occluded front is now a possibility and a fascinatingly snowy one at that- all eyes on the FAXes

Dave- the atmospheric changes, and the jet stream reaction appear to be a direct result of the SSW- but the real reload is expected late on in the month, though details are rather abstract at this time regarding it

[Summer Sun]

Issued less than 30 mins ago from the met office

Ice warning

Issued at: 1629 on Wed 16 Jan 2013

Valid from: 0005 on Sat 19 Jan 2013

Valid to: 1200 on Sun 20 Jan 2013

The band of snow will slowly weaken through Saturday with further accumulations over central and eastern areas of 5 cm or so in places. During the evening ice will form in many areas where there is snow cover, lasting into Sunday morning. The public are advised to be aware of the continued risk of disruption to transport during this spell of wintry weather.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-4.50&lat=55.74&fcTime=1358251260&regionName=uk

[Snowmaggedon]

[quote name='Isolated Frost' timestamp='1358355235' post='2

By Friday 2100, I think the NW/Midlands/South-West and parts of SW Scotland will be doing much better.

By Saturday 2100, I wouldn't be shocked if we were at the same levels, if not more.

By Sunday 2100, based on current NWP, we would be ahead.

Blizzard-wise, it's a word that is banded around v easily nowadays, with height and elevation yes, but at low levels, mod-strong winds with heavy snow on Friday night and Saturday morning v possible, turning lighter/moderate through Saturday- with snow shrs moving in

The possibility of snow shrs moving in with the occluded front is now a possibility and a fascinatingly snowy one at that- all eyes on the FAXes

Dave- the atmospheric changes, and the jet stream reaction appear to be a direct result of the SSW- but the real reload is expected late on in the month, though details are rather abstract at this time regarding it

This is starting to get very serious, we could be on the brink of something rather special. Do you think there's a good chance of this being better than the 2009 and 2010 cold spells?

[Snowmaggedon]

Issued less than 30 mins ago from the met office

Ice warning

Issued at: 1629 on Wed 16 Jan 2013

Valid from: 0005 on Sat 19 Jan 2013

Valid to: 1200 on Sun 20 Jan 2013

The band of snow will slowly weaken through Saturday with further accumulations over central and eastern areas of 5 cm or so in places. During the evening ice will form in many areas where there is snow cover, lasting into Sunday morning. The public are advised to be aware of the continued risk of disruption to transport during this spell of wintry weather.

http://www.metoffice...0&regionName=uk

So around 10 cm of snow on Friday and another 5 around the course of the weekend...not bad.

[snowmaddave]

Cheers again frost, this could term out to be a winter to remember, fingers crossed

[Isolated Frost]

This is starting to get very serious, we could be on the brink of something rather special. Do you think there's a good chance of this being better than the 2009 and 2010 cold spells?

Very far away from it- we have to urge realism until we come into the reliable.

Snow-wise, with atlantic incursions- it seems as though central and western parts should benefit most early on

but the depth of continental cold (and surface cold here in the NE) is quite something, the ice risk is quite huge if i'm honest over the next week- and temperatures will be very cold (struggling to pass 3/4c for about 10 days at least, starting this Monday just gone)

It has some potential, but for now, it's a long way away, and snow-wise it doesn't look too special atm, though in terms of cold- it is indeed extremely so, with signals of a movement to MJO phase 7- the optimism regarding mid-atlantic ridging and a euro cold trough rise and then the chances of a snowy spell increase- PV into Scandi and a slow removal of energy over NE Canada the vital ingredients to fuelling the reload late month

Watch GP, Chionomaniac, LomondSnowstorm and Lorenzo's postings in particular amongst others- the signal for height rises to the W/NW and a slow injection of polar energy to the NE provides a touch of real positivity as we move into February

there's a long way to go, and plenty of twists and turns.. the UKMO output tonight very well looked like something that would be 'just the beginning', but the volatility of the NWP must not be under-stated

[Snowmaggedon]

Very far away from it- we have to urge realism until we come into the reliable.

Snow-wise, with atlantic incursions- it seems as though central and western parts should benefit most early on

but the depth of continental cold (and surface cold here in the NE) is quite something, the ice risk is quite huge if i'm honest over the next week- and temperatures will be very cold (struggling to pass 3/4c for about 10 days at least, starting this Monday just gone)

It has some potential, but for now, it's a long way away, and snow-wise it doesn't look too special atm, though in terms of cold- it is indeed extremely so, with signals of a movement to MJO phase 7- the optimism regarding mid-atlantic ridging and a euro cold trough rise and then the chances of a snowy spell increase- PV into Scandi and a slow removal of energy over NE Canada the vital ingredients to fuelling the reload late month

Watch GP, Chionomaniac, LomondSnowstorm and Lorenzo's postings in particular amongst others- the signal for height rises to the W/NW and a slow injection of polar energy to the NE provides a touch of real positivity as we move into February

there's a long way to go, and plenty of twists and turns.. the UKMO output tonight very well looked like something that would be 'just the beginning', but the volatility of the NWP must not be under-stated

Thanks for your thoughts IS, interesting times ahead

[Airedalejoe]

All in all how do u think wr will fare in snow terms compared to the west IF? Will we get any blizzard like conditions?

Anything we get from fronts coming at us from the west will be a bonus, what we have going for us is the North sea snow machine for other day's. This is usually where we get our best falls and as the charts stand at the moment we are looking at some fantastic lake effect snow spells over the weekend/next week.

Given the low temps I can see some mega snow showers blitzing us.

[Snowmaggedon]

What excites me most is that the likes of GP and Roger Smith expect us to see the most severe spell of the winter in late January and February. In fact GP has really ramped it up today if anyone has seen his post in the Model Output Thread.

[snowmaddave]

I read that snowmaggedon, very exciting times ahead, need to keep our feet on the ground though, we seen what happened in December, Steve murr was on suicide watch after that let down, i think he is still reeling from it

[Hagler]

I'm off to the supermarket to panic buy before the pesky pensioners buy all the bread and milk.

[Isolated Frost]

I'm off to the supermarket to panic buy before the pesky pensioners buy all the bread and milk.

Hahahaha

EC and UKMO SO much snowier than the GFS output... i'm inclined to believe them because

1) they have higher verification rates

2) they have some snazzy HD graphics on the yr.no site

3) they are bloody snowy!!

[Isolated Frost]

Synoptics that make me sleep well.

[Alex95]

Fantastic ECM so far. 4-6 inches this weekend from North Sea convection, then bucketloads next week as another low pushes north into the cold air. Yes please!

Edited January 16, 2013 by Alza

[Isolated Frost]

ECM 12z would make December 2010 look like June in Benidorm.

NE England and E Scotland in the firing line completely. What an absolute stunner.

[Summer Sun]

Get the feeling we could be in for something special over the next week or so you have to love the north sea with the ECM type set up's

As Victor Meldrew would say I don't believe it!!

Edited January 16, 2013 by Gavin.

[Cloud 10]

ECM at 144hrs= snowmageddon for the NE

[Isolated Frost]

A superb run from the ECM- just as snowy as Nov 25-Dec 2 (which was INCREDIBLE!)

Bare in mind it's just one run, but the EC, UKMO and GEM output have been VERY similar in making this so- it could really be something special if we go with the (upper air) flow.

[Andy_]

And this is why I never want to leave the North East Drop dead charts from the UKMO and ECM

[Dandy]

Cracking outlook Gromit

[baskcm]

rubs hands together

[Boro Snow]

paul mooney on look north rain n sleet for the north east on sat REALLY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Alex95]

paul mooney on look north rain n sleet for the north east on sat REALLY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Not gonna happen under these temperatures! That ECM was made just for us - look at that finger of -10 850s pointing right at us next Wednesday!

[snowmaddave]

Boro snow, oh dear that doesn't sound good, if it is marginal for us we will deffo get the rain, im no expert but its seriously cold outside so the chances of rain must be slim surely!